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Andrews Pitchfork

  • #61
  • Nov 10, 2006 12:41pm Nov 10, 2006 12:41pm
Accrete

The department you are thinking of is MAD...

Military Acronym Dept.

Im ex miltary so i know exactly what you mean

Lyndon
  • #62
  • Nov 10, 2006 2:09pm Nov 10, 2006 2:09pm
hi lyndon, hi guys.

sorry, been busy trading the days, childminding the afternoons, and cooking for the wife on the evenings, so no posts on my side for a couple of days.....

plus one hangover whatching blue stars, i remember.

Lyndon, got to say thanks for the thread, its getting interesting, and great to see more people joining in.

I still need to see your new theories, will try to do so on on previous charts.

There is one thing that is continuously getting to me with these forks, and it is that if this is to have some sort of method, it needs to incorporate time, if it is to be a decent trading tool.

anyway, got to cook dinner (late), and write back tomorrow

regards

g
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #63
  • Nov 10, 2006 2:14pm Nov 10, 2006 2:14pm
my observation on pitchfork. (sorry my english is bad

- always draw pitchfork points from high/low that lies around fib retracement/extension numbers or previous valid life pitchfork.
- using combination of price action introduced by james16 (pinbar etc) on pitchfork fib levels/pitchfork trendline retest, is almost always yield a good result, at least we can put trades that has high R/R ratios.
- watch area around 61.8 - 78.6 of valid life pitchfork, usually price consolidate/ranging in there forming triangle/flag/penant
- it works better with longer timeframe, it sometimes show us trading range, resistance and support levels in the future. so always respect the big one when handling with smaller pitchfork.
- the market is a believer of channels and fibs numbers. fundamentals are the one who makes market moves, and target price is decided by market, so we may not know what kind of reaction will market do to news, but as long as the market keep their channel and fibbonacci religion we can predict where the target is after the market moves.

http://img372.imageshack.us/img372/7...usdweekjh0.gif

here some example on chart
A high is around 161.8 extension of previous swing down
B low is around 38.6 retracement of gbp moves from 1.36xx to 1.95xx
triangle formed on lower line of young pitchfork blue, and its breaking upside
C I dont know what kind of fundamentals that affect this, but price went straight to median line.
D after that, we assume new young pitchfork (red). and expecting a retest for move down, but its broken immediately after retracement.
E then we wait for retest on broken trendline, with james16 bar setup forming at retest (double low with higher close), then we assume bull is continue.

there's some other chart i've posted before this in other threads, and it works as expected with rules above.

now its time for us hardworkers forkers to take revenge on those borkers
  • #64
  • Nov 12, 2006 5:11pm Nov 12, 2006 5:11pm
Akuma99

Yes I use Mozilla and that was indeed the problem. I've seen the video now and have to say it is excellent in that it not only shows how to draw the p/fork, but also goes into detail about how to use it to estimate entry/exit points.

Lyndon, having discovered Mark Mcrae I totally agree that it's the best I've found out there. Up to lesson 3 and it's absolutely amazing. Still can't believe he's doing all that for free.

Well I've had a play around on my charts practising drawing the p/fork. I'm taking the start for the median line from the low of 1.8948 on 6/11 and point A 1.9122 on 7/11, point B 1.8975 on 9/11., on a 4hr chart. This makes it look fairly bullish still with price hovering around the median, so I see no sign of a decline yet for cable.

I think where you draw the p/fork depends on how you trade - daily/intraday or longer term but I hope someone will correct me if I'm wrong.
max
  • #65
  • Nov 12, 2006 10:39pm Nov 12, 2006 10:39pm
Quoting Lyndon001
Dave, where did you get the info on the yellow lines, im not too sure about those, they seem to move away from the price action at about 30 degrees so it seems to me that they will be too far away from the price to give any timely indication, ive tried it on a number of APF and they all seem the same, it could be that i am miss reading what you are saying.

With the blue trend line, i like the way the price fell, recovered then tried to resume on its downward track. It looks like the bulls had other ideas though and by the time the price could fall again that big old mature pitch fork wouldnt let it and batted it back up.

I tell you what i did notice though, it may be just coincidence but your lower yellow line and blue trend line have formed an ascending triangle which according to Thomas Bulkowski would inicate a good chance of an upward breakout.

What do you think ???

Lyndon

Lyndon -

Heya, I got the information regarding the yellow lines from some articles on www.tradingnaked.com - a few setups on the site offer some insight into drawing those outer lines on the pitchfork. As far as timely indication, well they don't do much good once a nice price channel has developed, but they're certainly useful when you suspect that a new price channel may be forming....for instance if you're in a uptrend and you start to see price moving into what may be a NEW Andrew's Pitchfork downtrend. If price violates those outer lines from the onset, you should probably go back to trading the uptrend pitchfork. Does that help you out?

You're right about my blue line. However, I was using it as more of a Tom DeMark (or Mouteki) line. If price violated that line after rebounding from a test of the lower pitchfork line, I figured it was a great place to enter.

-=DAVE=-
  • #66
  • Edited Mar 3, 2007 2:56pm Nov 13, 2006 4:05am | Edited Mar 3, 2007 2:56pm
hi guys,

have a look at this one. Short cable on early entry on a lower top on cable using pitchforks
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #67
  • Edited Mar 3, 2007 2:56pm Nov 13, 2006 7:30am | Edited Mar 3, 2007 2:56pm
Quoting ghitz
hi guys,

have a look at this one. Short cable on early entry on a lower top on cable using pitchforks
target missed by 2 pips.
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #68
  • Nov 13, 2006 9:25am Nov 13, 2006 9:25am
Quoting ghitz
target missed by 2 pips.
and surpassed by more than 40
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #69
  • Nov 13, 2006 2:38pm Nov 13, 2006 2:38pm
Hey all nice little upward pitch fork on the hourly for usd chf pair, also noting possible eliot wave counts, could become abc correction of previous downtrend.
Attached Image
  • #70
  • Nov 13, 2006 3:03pm Nov 13, 2006 3:03pm
Quoting enoc2g
Hey all nice little upward pitch fork on the hourly for usd chf pair, also noting possible eliot wave counts, could become abc correction of previous downtrend.
ahhh, somebody got the same setup for swissy than for cable. I was watching both, and took the cable one, as cable tends to give more bang for the buck.

What I am starting to find is that pitchforks and 123 (or lower tops-highs, higher lows, including head and shoulders) seem to be incredibly correlated.

From little experience, the pitchfork appears to have a setup of its own for early entry on the above mentioned setups. you got the downtrend line that triggers the long. the ideal entry price (lets call it Trigger Price) is the price that is in the middle of the 2 swings (or the pivots that form the pitchfork). entry should be on break of trend after pullback. not always you get the ideal price. I think the safe entry is after break pull of trend rather than on break of Trigger Price.

EURUSD had the same setup, but didnt have such an advantageous entry as Swissy or Cable. Seems we are finding a setup. Good. Promising.

good trade if u took it. When I was looking at it, my ideal entry was 85.

happy trading.

g
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #71
  • Nov 13, 2006 3:07pm Nov 13, 2006 3:07pm
cool, got in at 80 ;-) lets see how far this puppy will run... +60 to the good now..
  • #72
  • Nov 13, 2006 3:40pm Nov 13, 2006 3:40pm
Quoting enoc2g
cool, got in at 80 ;-) lets see how far this puppy will run... +60 to the good now..
good for u. me, managed an exit on 1/2 for + 90, and rest for + 120, so cant complain
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #73
  • Nov 13, 2006 3:40pm Nov 13, 2006 3:40pm
Quote
From little experience, the pitchfork appears to have a setup of its own for early entry on the above mentioned setups. you got the downtrend line that triggers the long. the ideal entry price (lets call it Trigger Price) is the price that is in the middle of the 2 swings (or the pivots that form the pitchfork). entry should be on break of trend after pullback. not always you get the ideal price. I think the safe entry is after break pull of trend rather than on break of Trigger Price.
ghitz, looks like your chart is a classic textbook example of where to enter a trade using the AP. I set my cable trade this morning using the pivot from last Fridays high, low and close, with a buy and sell 20 pips either way. Looking at the pitchfork on your chart, and given the computer time, the trade could have confidently been entered a bit sooner. Great stuff. Hope you made it to 1.8999.
enoc2g - nice pitchfork as well on the swissie going the other way.
max
  • #74
  • Nov 13, 2006 3:51pm Nov 13, 2006 3:51pm
Right guys,

this is the method, hope there is feedback.

Scenario is a 123 or Lower Top or Lower High, however you want to call it.

the 1 aspect is the high, the 2 aspect is the low, the 3 aspect is the lower high. It is the same thing as the head (aspect 1) neck (Aspect 2) right shoulder (Aspect 3).

Those 3 pivots give the parameters for the pitchfork.

Ideal entry is on break of midprice between aspect 2 and aspect 3.

Targets:
Aspect 1 minus Aspect 2 = X pips. Add/Subtract from Aspect 2, and this gives the target.

The conservative target, and the level to scale out is
Xpips less ASpect 3.

Time to target: (this is the part we have been missing, and this is a hypothesis, so be kind with me)
Step 1) Find the lowest close around Aspect 2 (in a downtrend), and reverse count the number of bars to the highest close around the 1 Aspect (in a downtrend). THis is equal to Z bars.
Step 2) Add Z bars to highest close sorrounding the 3 Aspect in a downtrend.

Take partial profits at: 1) Conservative Target, or 2) Target time (As above). Whatever happens first.
Let the rest trail above the medianline.

These are my 2cents.

Good luck.
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #75
  • Nov 13, 2006 3:53pm Nov 13, 2006 3:53pm
Quoting max77
ghitz, looks like your chart is a classic textbook example of where to enter a trade using the AP. I set my cable trade this morning using the pivot from last Fridays high, low and close, with a buy and sell 20 pips either way. Looking at the pitchfork on your chart, and given the computer time, the trade could have confidently been entered a bit sooner. Great stuff. Hope you made it to 1.8999.
enoc2g - nice pitchfork as well on the swissie going the other way.
max
Thanks mate. I dont know what an AP is.

I use no indicators, only price patterns and price action. No MAs, nothing. Just trendlines and so on.

So could you be nice and explain what is an AP, since I am honestly too embarrased to ask!

Thanks again. Look at rules below and have a go at me, please.

g
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #76
  • Nov 13, 2006 5:45pm Nov 13, 2006 5:45pm
Quoting ghitz
Thanks mate. I dont know what an AP is.

I use no indicators, only price patterns and price action. No MAs, nothing. Just trendlines and so on.

So could you be nice and explain what is an AP, since I am honestly too embarrased to ask!

Thanks again. Look at rules below and have a go at me, please.

g
Sorry http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon11.gif oops!! It Andrews Pitchfork.

I'll have to take a closer look at those rules tomorrow night - early start means I need to get some shuteye now.
max
  • #77
  • Nov 13, 2006 6:19pm Nov 13, 2006 6:19pm
Quoting max77
Sorry http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon11.gif oops!! It Andrews Pitchfork.

I'll have to take a closer look at those rules tomorrow night - early start means I need to get some shuteye now.
max
me-embarrassed, of course AP!!! probably got to go to sleep.

rules above are for somebody that trades price patterns, not pitchforks. pitchforks seem to be a decent tool for it though.

g
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #78
  • Nov 14, 2006 9:42am Nov 14, 2006 9:42am
Possible fork change on EUR-USD 1hr
Attached Image
  • #79
  • Nov 14, 2006 9:51am Nov 14, 2006 9:51am
GBP/USD Daily chart.
Attached Image
"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #80
  • Nov 14, 2006 9:52am Nov 14, 2006 9:52am
CHF Daily chart.
Attached Image
"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
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