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Andrews Pitchfork

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  • Edited Nov 16, 2006 5:33pm Nov 15, 2006 9:41pm | Edited Nov 16, 2006 5:33pm
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Hi Downrivertrader

Welcome to the thread and the charts look great but would you mind scalining them down a little as they are stretching the screen so we have to keep scrolling, even in the purely written comments. Hope you dont mind it just makes the trhead easier to read

Thanks

Lyndon

PS Did you draw those forks with a pitchfork tool as i havent seen them with % on ?
  • Post #85
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  • Edited Mar 3, 2007 3:56pm Nov 16, 2006 10:06am | Edited Mar 3, 2007 3:56pm
Quoting ghitz
Right guys,

this is the method, hope there is feedback.

Scenario is a 123 or Lower Top or Lower High, however you want to call it.

the 1 aspect is the high, the 2 aspect is the low, the 3 aspect is the lower high. It is the same thing as the head (aspect 1) neck (Aspect 2) right shoulder (Aspect 3).

Those 3 pivots give the parameters for the pitchfork.

Ideal entry is on break of midprice between aspect 2 and aspect 3.

Targets:
Aspect 1 minus Aspect 2 = X pips. Add/Subtract from Aspect 2, and this gives the target.

The conservative target, and the level to scale out is
Xpips less ASpect 3.

Time to target: (this is the part we have been missing, and this is a hypothesis, so be kind with me)
Step 1) Find the lowest close around Aspect 2 (in a downtrend), and reverse count the number of bars to the highest close around the 1 Aspect (in a downtrend). THis is equal to Z bars.
Step 2) Add Z bars to highest close sorrounding the 3 Aspect in a downtrend.

Take partial profits at: 1) Conservative Target, or 2) Target time (As above). Whatever happens first.
Let the rest trail above the medianline.

These are my 2cents.

Good luck.
hi guys, hi lyndon,

hope all is well. below is a potential pfork with a higher low reversal pattern at 50% fib. pattern is triggered for a long, pitchfork appears to be formed and tested, and entry at 8900 or better stop 8845, braking previous down fork and testing down forks trigger line for reversal.

lets see how this plays out. lets see how the rules above work out.

g

ah, dont ask if trade is with paper or money....what do you think
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
Hi G

Yes thaks all is well, sorry i havent been posting so much lately, last week it took my eye off my trading and ive been trying to get my focus back. Pulling 14 hr shifts doesnt help either. I traded EUR-GBP yesterday off a pitchfork and i think its the most boring trade ive ever done, I went short as it bounced off the upper median and it just stuck there, It was only a diddy pin bar but the stochastic was showing overbought so i thought what the hell. I took the money off the table this morning for minimal profit so i think i will stick to the majors in future.

Not the best trade i have ever done

Lyndon
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Hi, i´m new to this forum. A few weeks ago a friend told me about pitchforks and i think too, that they are a usefull tool. Sorry, my english is not the best.

I started to trade only cable a few weeks ago. here is my ponit of view..
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Quoting Lyndon001
Hi G

Yes thaks all is well, sorry i havent been posting so much lately, last week it took my eye off my trading and ive been trying to get my focus back. Pulling 14 hr shifts doesnt help either. I traded EUR-GBP yesterday off a pitchfork and i think its the most boring trade ive ever done, I went short as it bounced off the upper median and it just stuck there, It was only a diddy pin bar but the stochastic was showing overbought so i thought what the hell. I took the money off the table this morning for minimal profit so i think i will stick to the majors in future.

Not the best trade i have ever done

Lyndon
hi lyndon,

dont overwork yourself. will pm you later.

one thing i have learned. never trade eurgbp. boring boring boring.

had that pitchfork on eurgbp before, and was using it to confirm shorts on cable. i guess that is the use of eurgbp, apart from that its a waist of time

g
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
I think you hit the nail on the head there G. Its the first time ive really looked at this pair and like you i think they are more usefull as an indicator rather than an instrument. I am looking at using it to see if i can work out a way of seeing if the cable will lead the fiber or the other way around.

Another thing i am looking at is the Stochastic for signalling trend changes, if you notice in an uptrend, the bullish action moves the stoch more than a bearish movement and the opposite in a down trend. i dunno if there is something in this as dont forget the stoch is a lagging indicator but its another possibility. i already use it for divergance.

Lyndon
Quoting surfer76
Hi, i´m new to this forum. A few weeks ago a friend told me about pitchforks and i think too, that they are a usefull tool. Sorry, my english is not the best.

I started to trade only cable a few weeks ago. here is my ponit of view..
hi surfer,

english is not my language either, so thats 2 of us.

what are your 12345 numbers. assum elliot waves on the way down?

there is one thing i dont like about your pitchfork (and this comes from pitchfork beginner to pitchfork beginner, so take it with a pinch of salt), is that the first pivot is not making either a lower low or higher high than the other 2 pivots.

for some reason, i find that if the first pivot is the lowest low or high for that matter when a pitchfork is forming, they seem to work better. guess they link extremely nicely with wave theory when that happens, as opposed to the one you have shown.

on the other hand, what i like about your chart, is how price tests the medianline befor the fork is formed tests it. so, could be spot on.

lets see how it evolves.

g
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
Welcome to the thread Surfer

I need to type quicker, G you beat me to it and said exactly what i was thinking so im just showing my agreement. LOL

Here is an alternate view and ive also plotted your fork on the same chart for comparisson, G i totally agree about testing the median before forming the upper and lower (i read that on the thread from Acumas Link)

Edit: just noticed i plotted point 1 on the previous low (at least it now offers a retest)

Lyndon
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Quoting ghitz
hi surfer,


what are your 12345 numbers. assum elliot waves on the way down?

there is one thing i dont like about your pitchfork (and this comes from pitchfork beginner to pitchfork beginner, so take it with a pinch of salt), is that the first pivot is not making either a lower low or higher high than the other 2 pivots.

for some reason, i find that if the first pivot is the lowest low or high for that matter when a pitchfork is forming, they seem to work better. guess they link extremely nicely with wave theory when that happens, as opposed to the one you have shown.

on the other hand, what i like about your chart, is how price tests the medianline befor the fork is formed tests it. so, could be spot on.
.g
Hi ghitz,

the number are as orientation for me to see relevant pivots. No elliot waves.

For me it is not absolutely necessary to have a lower low or higher high as pivot. IMHO is drawing PF for me more an art than a science. I am trading only cable since a few weeks and i am drawing PF in every TF.

I don´t know if these PF is valuable but i will let him until price say´s me that i´m wrong.

I hope i could help clear some points.
Quoting Lyndon001
Welcome to the thread Surfer

I need to type quicker, G you beat me to it and said exactly what i was thinking so im just showing my agreement. LOL

Here is an alternate view and ive also plotted your fork on the same chart for comparisson, G i totally agree about testing the median before forming the upper and lower (i read that on the thread from Acumas Link)

Edit: just noticed i plotted point 1 on the previous low (at least it now offers a retest)

Lyndon

Hi Lyndon,

i´m till now not convinced that the median must be tested before forming the upper and lower line.

If i left some points out please ask me. The PF you draw i have not seen but now i will integrate it. Thanks
surfer:

Quoting surfer76
Hi ghitz,

For me it is not absolutely necessary to have a lower low or higher high as pivot.
fair enough, a matter of preference i guess.
The little I have read points to efficiency of pitchforks having to do with the first pivot as being lower than the other two pivots in an uptrending pfork, as it will signal a trend and its strength.

however, what you say may well be true for a ranging (independent of bias) market. Again, a matter of preference.

Quoting surfer76
IMHO is drawing PF for me more an art than a science.
couldnt agree more.

One thing I can say is that pitchforks should be treated as a tool, only as a tool and not a trading method only.

it is great to exchange ideas with people with other points of view. that is the whole point of having a thread. we learn together.

g
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • Post #95
  • Quote
  • Edited Mar 3, 2007 3:57pm Nov 16, 2006 3:59pm | Edited Mar 3, 2007 3:57pm
well, this is just an academic excersice to see how pitchforks and price patterns work.

the chart has 3 potential trading setups

1) bull flag, so eurodollar goes up (pitchfork is not violated yet (trigger line is way way below (trendline joining lowest pivot with pivot forming lower medianline
2) triangle, which in principle has a bias to break out up as the move was up, but can break down.
3) H&S that is basically the case of the triangle breaking south for that matter.

trend is up so bias is for break north. lets see how this plays out. what i see is that there is no clear pfork pointing down. this can be aided with fibs, but in this case my aim is to see how price patterns blend in with the tool

g
edit: 4hr chart to help
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
Good morning,

re-test of the upper ML. Could be a great trade
Attached Image
This my chart GBP/USD daily.
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"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
That´s funny :


Different people see different things.
Quoting ghitz
hi guys, hi lyndon,

hope all is well. below is a potential pfork with a higher low reversal pattern at 50% fib. pattern is triggered for a long, pitchfork appears to be formed and tested, and entry at 8900 or better stop 8845, braking previous down fork and testing down forks trigger line for reversal.

lets see how this plays out. lets see how the rules above work out.

g

ah, dont ask if trade is with paper or money....what do you think
discarding pattern. 123 pattern still valid as the 2 hasnt been taking yet. forming now a double bottom, but IMHO it will end up being another range as yesterday.

g
edit. 2 aspect broken as i was writing.
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
Hey Surfer

Looks like our two forks are going to battle it out.

Ive never seen that before and it looks interesting

Roll up roll up take your bets

Lyndon
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