Andrews Pitchfork

Hi,

a new perspective. Look´s promising to me

The issue I have always had with forks is that you can always find one to support whatever conviction you have. Bullish or Bearish.

couldnt agree more with you DownRiverTrader. IMHO this is just another tool that cannot substitute traditional and basic Support+Resistance analyisis but compliment it.

See attached:

Using pitchfork technology TM, upward fork is only invaldated when trendline joining pivots that form fork is broken. in this case it is the blue line. Price has retraced to 50% of that move, broken trendline, invalidated pitchfork, and apparently pullsback to test brokent trendline. This is a textbook case of a pitchfork that has been formed confirmed and apparently reached its target.

However, we have two scenarios unfolding

a) move down to 8835 or 50% of 8515 to 9177 is a retracement, and is now to continue up to retest top

b) move up is finished, and yesterday move up is nothing but a pullback to 8965 or 38% of 9177 to 8835, and also testing support turned resistance at 8975 shown by horizontal white line.

so in conclusion, yes you are right that one sees what one wants to see. but also, if one uses further analysis one can assess the situation better, and use this great tool for setups and exits. in this case, until we see a pfork that forms and confirms we can trade it.

problem with this tool is that in hindsight it is easy to assess when it yhas formed, but difficult to do so in real time.

hope chart makes sense.

g

alternative way of seeing things with price patterns, not pitchforks

descending triangle breaks north and gives a measured move (to the pip almost....ok 3 pips exceeded)

now assess price with price patterns to see if you get a continuation of the move up and validates your pitchfork. so far 60 minute chart has formed a new descending triangle. wait for monday to confirm.

g

Great.

In the next 3o minutes we will see which PF is valid.

whichever fork winning, if we put both in trade with good entry, the result is still + in pips.

I've been trading pitchforks for over a year now. I've done some extensive study of the original Andrew's trading methods and I think the man was a genious. The main thing you need to know about pitchforks is the center line, or Median Line (ML) as Andrews called them. Andrews theory is that prices are always drawn to the current ML like a magnet. Draw your pitchforks and you will see, prices tend to navigate up and down around the center line.

The outer lines are called median line parallels. Andrews believed that prices moved in opposites and with symetry, or in other words, he likened it to geometry, therefore the outler lines will normally hold price action as it is attracted back and forth to the ML.

You can use the ML to judge current price strength. When prices make a new major pivot, you always draw your new fork and 80% of the time, prices should move to the new ML. A failure to reach the new ML shows strength or weakness, depending on which way prices are moving. As an example, if prices were moving upwards, and turned down, you draw the new downward fork, and prices should reach the new downward ML, but if not, then that shows strength and you know that prices are going higher. Just remember, whenever prices fail to reach a ML, and then start moving away from that ML, the trend is losing strength. It's not always easy to judge from the the forks alone when the trend will actually change, but you can easily see that the trend is losing or gaining strength. Andrews claims that prices will move to the new ML 80% of the time. The overall trend may go on for days, weeks or months, but you should still get a move to the latest ML 80% of the time.

I am new to forex, so I have not used pitchforks in this market, but I have used them for both futures and stocks and I am a firm believer in their validity. I believe that forks will work just as well with forex. Andrews himself shows examples of them working with any type of charting, including charting actual weather temperatures. It's bascially principles of math, more specifically geometry. He was a strong believer that for every action, there is an opposite and equal reaction, and this was true for market prices as well.

If anyone is interested, I will post more, along with some examples as I trade myself.

Here's a chart of the Aus Dollar. Again, this is futures, but it should work the same in forex. Notice the long term Median Line in the Dark Blue fork. See how prices are continually attracted to the center line... it's like a magnet and prices are always drawn to it.

Now notice the dashed blue fork within the large trend. That trend is starting to weaken. See how prices started up towards the center line or ML, but couldn't make it? If the trend was strong, prices would have moved right on up to the ML, just like they did in the previous swing with the black fork.

Prices have now fallen out of the black fork and are starting to fall outside of the blue dashed fork as well. The trend is getting weaker and will soon end. Notice how prices can't get back above the ML on the large blue fork. Prices also could not reach the upper ML parrallel of the long term blue fork either, another sign of weakenss. Lastly, notice how prices can't reach the new ML on the dashed blue fork either, which is another sign of weakness. Right now, the small red fork is holding prices nicely, and until prices trade outside of that fork, the trend is down.

There was also some talk earlier in the thread about trigger lines. They were yellow in the previous posts, but mine is the green dashed line. The rule for these trigger lines is as follows: Any time prices fail to reach a ML, you should buy or sell, immediately after prcies then close outside of the trigger line.

There is no doubt that the trend in the AD is weakening and if it has not already topped, it will top soon. Use the forks to determine the trend, along with the strength of the trend. Use price action and your other tools to decide when to buy or sell. While not 100%, the trigger lines are usually very safe places to buy or sell as well. The only draw back to the trigger line is that prices have usually made a nice move already before reaching them, so you want to get aboard sooner if at all possible.

I've been trading fx with PF's for some time now. I also use Fibs along with them. If you really want to learn about PFs, I suggest you google "Pitchfork Primer" and go the site. Gordon is an elderly gentleman living in Hawaii and claims to have studied with Andrews. He has a course that'll cost you $240...a bargain considering the crap that is being sold out there.

At the same time get "The Best Trendline Methods of Alan Andrews" by Patrick Mikula. This book covers the same stuff Gordon does, but does a bit better job explaining and providing examples. Gordon's material has things Mikula's doesn't, so get both.

The key to using PFs is knowing when to enter trades. The exits are actually pretty easy, which is a switch in trading if you think about it. They work very well in FX...my experience so far is 83% of the time they'll hit the Median Line, as the above poster mentioned. However, there's quite a bit more to them than just shooting for the ML. That's why you need the materials.

You'll also need to know how to read bar patterns (I guess candle patterns work as well), which of course every trader should know as standard, default knowledge anyway. The beauty of PF's is they work on every market, on every time frame. But, like so many other things, the higher frames take precedence over the lower ones.

Finally, I have no affiliation with either men, I get nothing for mentioning them, so no crap, please. I hardly come here, but just happened to see this post.

For those who are familiar with that piece of crap forums that used to be good but has now gone so far downhill it's burrowing, my user name is bobnat. I think a few here will recongnize my name and know I'm not a shill.

Nat

have found interesting analysis with the Andrew's pitchfork method for the majors and crosses on the website http://www.fibogroup.com/pages/506?pair=EURUSD several times a week they update it
How do you estimate it?

thanks for this valuable information, Robin.

The Andrews pitchfork was the first system I ever learned. I found it to be very profitable with a good money management system. i traded it with treasury bond futures. I was excited to see this thread, as I have always wanted to revisit it with forex. Back when I learned it, my rules as dictated were simple. I'm interested in looking at the whole thread and seeing the other insights to it.

Great thread!

Good trading!!

Hi, im was searching around and see the pitchfork thread. Nice to see people using it. Can i join and learn some from you guys. Thanks a lot. happy trading ! and here is the GY 240 and 20 mins chart. falling like a rocket lol

This thread is dead. Go to the link below if you want an active discussion of ML's, although that too has periods of hibernation.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=76597

Check here for Andrew's Median Line MT4 indicator that supports Schiff, Modified Schiff, Catalin, inner lines, warning lines, reaction lines and sliding parallels.

bump

I just realized the function of Andrew Pitchfork ... especially on the Android MT4 platform / apps, there is a Fibonachi level which shows the lowest and highest level ever passed. if the lowest level is 61%, the price will retrace to the 61% level and will form a new low