DislikedA system will be profitable if its win-rate is larger than the percentage of “(average loss) / (average loss + average gain)” …Ignored
Just curious if this is your own take on it or are you correcting something I posted earlier?
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DislikedA system will be profitable if its win-rate is larger than the percentage of “(average loss) / (average loss + average gain)” …Ignored
Disliked{quote} Quite right. As long as you've already accounted for trading costs, and the ratios don't fluctuate too much during the lifetime of the account. Just curious if this is your own take on it or are you correcting something I posted earlier?Ignored
Disliked{quote} If the system is profitable as described above, don’t worry too much about commission, overnight and rollover fees because the system’s profitability will be able to cover those costs …Ignored
Trade the Extreme Data
Disliked{quote} That's usually true, unless you're trading very frequently, intraday.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Not necessary, it also works on swing trading. One of my strategies only had 41% win-rate doing 24 trades from 2017 to 2020. But since it maintained a consistent 1:3-RRR on each of its trades, it could produce a 75% return in 4 years or 18% annually, enough to cover the overall trading costs ...Ignored
Reversal for a good reason (headline and details don’t match)
Central Bank Meetings
Positioning into a central bank meeting
Other headlines and news
Steps to becoming an expert in your currency
But it is also clearly a lot of work for something that you could straddle.
Positioning and sentiment
“‘You can’t escape the madness of crowds by dogmatically rejecting them . . . The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself.’’ – Peter Thiel, Zero to One
Anecdotal evidence
Skyscraper Indicator
Cheer Hedge
The WTF indicator
IPO Indicator
Books recommended:
Woody Dorsey - Behavioural Trading
Daniel Kahneman - Thinking Fast and Slow
James Montier - Behavioural Finance
Robert J Shiller - Irrational Exuberance
Nate Silver - Signal and the Noise
Note that I have a Montier book in the stack already. I don't know if 'Behavioural Finance should replace 'Behavioural Investing'. I would assume that the latter is more practical and less academic? I've read Thinking Fast and Slow and while it's vital reading, it's not really a trading book. We've already covered Shiller's thinking, I feel, and I just don't trust Nate Silver. 'Beware of Geeks Bearing Formulas'. That leaves Dorsey - I think I'll check it out.
BD mentions the common AUD and Gold connection
The market is a super complicated organism. A Rube Goldberg machine.
The most reliable correlations in FX are (in order of reliability):
1. FX vs. other currencies (one currency vs. another)
2. FX vs. interest rates
3. FX vs. commodities (especially gold, oil, and copper)
4. FX vs. equity indices
5. FX vs. single name equities and ETFs
If this kind of thing works it could be a game changer, but I have never had much luck with correlation trading. Maybe I just didn’t go deep enough. However, let's take a quick look at oil and CAD.
Update: since I captured those charts oil is up even more aggressively, but no change in CAD to match. This would drive me nuts. I like to react to market reactions. If something is clearly happening and there's no reaction, there's no correlation as far as I'm concerned.
BD then goes into a case study of Feb. 2016, recalling when the transports index ‘showed the way’ throughout 2015. He expects that with transports rising the US equity indices should do the same.
Next: the 'need to know' of TA according to BD
Using S&R in Your Trading
Simple and exponential moving averages (plus crossovers)
How to use the MA:
Measuring Momentum, overbought and oversold
Next: candlestick charts