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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #629,521
  • Edited 11:55am Oct 10, 2021 11:18am | Edited 11:55am
Quoting tauhidur
{quote} hi navin, finally can i expect in this position some revers in the down 20 or30 pips or what you thing this position.
been looking at this..
Monthly suggesting to me we have risen to the top and a retrace to a minimum is at least 1.5256 BUT so long as price cannot see 1.54..

u may see 1.4950 then 1.45..price could reverse once seeing 1.5256 (expect a bounce here)..but 1.54 is the line in the sand and if price crosses this point ...U will likely blow your account if u hold without a stop

On the 4hr I see bearish divergence which looking at the candles show exhaustion to the topside, it is channel supported and the monthly chart is backing up the resistance area

U will be ok I feel.. price will almost certainly see 1.5256 and there make attempt to bounce up from there but the divergence should help take price down realistically 1.4950 then 1.4450

targets SL 1.5420 for 1.4950 or 1.4450
Good Luck
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  • #629,522
  • Oct 10, 2021 12:06pm Oct 10, 2021 12:06pm
My two cents plus one cent.
Price will initially retrace, however price is in an up cycle,and it’s end destination should be where Pats yellow line is drawn.
  • #629,523
  • Oct 10, 2021 12:10pm Oct 10, 2021 12:10pm
Quoting Ihlas
Whole trading is about direction, but people are afraid of forecasting or predicting the price. Not with I think. But with structured system. With certainty, probability
It's probably just semantics / your use of language, but even if your edge sets up it does not predict or otherwise forecast which way price will go on that particular occasion or indeed on any occasion it sets up. All you know when it does set up is that on x % of times in your sample (s) to that point in time, when the set-up appeared, price did y. You do not know on any particular occasion whether price will do y again, (say a winning trade in the case of an edge that shows the greater probability.) It may do z ie a losing trade. It is an important distinction to make in one's mind in approaching the market because if you think that you/your edge can predict, then you are wrong and it will lead you into trouble.

I had a set-up appear last week (part of my edge) which to that point in time over a very large 14year sample(s) period has a winning % of 94%, so there was only a 6% chance of it resulting in z. My 'expectation' based on those stats was therefore that I had a 96% chance of achieving y, but it still lost.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #629,524
  • Oct 10, 2021 12:15pm Oct 10, 2021 12:15pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} It's probably just semantics / your use of language, but even if your edge sets up it does not predict which way price will go on that particular occasion or indeed on any occasion it sets up. All you know when it does set up is that on x % of times in your sample (s) to that point in time, when the set-up appeared, price did y. You do not know on any particular occasion whether price will do y again, (say a winning trade in the case of an edge that shows the greater probability.) It may do z ie a losing trade. It is an important distinction...
Great post
  • #629,525
  • Oct 10, 2021 12:22pm Oct 10, 2021 12:22pm
Pat the compression or recoiling I see as a weightlifter that has to first go down in order to achieve the momentum and strength to go upwards.
  • #629,526
  • Oct 10, 2021 12:34pm Oct 10, 2021 12:34pm
Gold I see as a retrace on the monthly to 1748 before it continues on its up cycle.
  • #629,527
  • Oct 10, 2021 12:42pm Oct 10, 2021 12:42pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} It's probably just semantics / your use of language, but even if your edge sets up it does not predict or otherwise forecast which way price will go on that particular occasion or indeed on any occasion it sets up. All you know when it does set up is that on x % of times in your sample (s) to that point in time, when the set-up appeared, price did y. You do not know on any particular occasion whether price will do y again, (say a winning trade in the case of an edge that shows the greater probability.) It may do z ie a losing trade. It is...
That's good. 14 year sample. Very good job.
Have you thought about repeating processes (day-to-day processes of other entities that make transactions)(withoug wicks etc) and gathering fresh samples from this month? And the time is also important as the price.
Good read. Thanks for your time.
  • #629,528
  • Oct 10, 2021 1:34pm Oct 10, 2021 1:34pm
I’ve seen the odd weekend gap here and there not like this for a long time
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Insane in the Brain..
  • #629,529
  • Oct 10, 2021 1:48pm Oct 10, 2021 1:48pm
Quoting BeeTogether
I’ve seen the odd weekend gap here and there not like this for a long time {image}
Meaning we will have a gap up?

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  • #629,530
  • Oct 10, 2021 1:57pm Oct 10, 2021 1:57pm
Yeah could be wrong but we could see a open above 13650
Insane in the Brain..
  • #629,531
  • Oct 10, 2021 1:58pm Oct 10, 2021 1:58pm
Etoro closed price similar MT4

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Oanda use to predict weekend movements.
At the moment showing
Sell 1.36113 Buy 1.362113
  • #629,532
  • Oct 10, 2021 2:00pm Oct 10, 2021 2:00pm
Quoting BeeTogether
Yeah could be wrong but we could see a open above 13650
Do you use weekend pair for carry over? I use DFB on most.
  • #629,533
  • Oct 10, 2021 2:08pm Oct 10, 2021 2:08pm
BLOOMBERG
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  • #629,534
  • Oct 10, 2021 2:09pm Oct 10, 2021 2:09pm
Cad and USD bank holiday tomorrow. Oposite moves expected, mainly Asia will decide favour dollar or not. China banned bitcoin trading now also restricts retail investors trading FX and commodities. Stay put with China decisions.
  • #629,535
  • Oct 10, 2021 2:16pm Oct 10, 2021 2:16pm
hold it !!!!!!!
2 hour before market open , there is 25 pips gap up
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yes yes yes
  • #629,536
  • Oct 10, 2021 2:20pm Oct 10, 2021 2:20pm
Quoting BeeTogether
I’ve seen the odd weekend gap here and there not like this for a long time {image}
Where do you guys see these weekend rates??
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #629,537
  • Oct 10, 2021 2:21pm Oct 10, 2021 2:21pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} been looking at this.. Monthly suggesting to me we have risen to the top and a retrace to a minimum is at least 1.5256 BUT so long as price cannot see 1.54.. u may see 1.4950 then 1.45..price could reverse once seeing 1.5256 (expect a bounce here)..but 1.54 is the line in the sand and if price crosses this point ...U will likely blow your account if u hold without a stop On the 4hr I see bearish divergence which looking at the candles show exhaustion to the topside, it is channel supported and the monthly chart is backing up the resistance...

Good read. Thanks for your time.
  • #629,538
  • Oct 10, 2021 2:53pm Oct 10, 2021 2:53pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Where do you guys see these weekend rates??
CNBC.COM or ig weekend rates
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Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #629,539
  • Oct 10, 2021 3:05pm Oct 10, 2021 3:05pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Where do you guys see these weekend rates??
iG
Insane in the Brain..
  • #629,540
  • Oct 10, 2021 3:18pm Oct 10, 2021 3:18pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Where do you guys see these weekend rates??
xe.com

However these rates do not mean much until the market opens.
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
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