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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #625,901
  • Edited 3:06am Sep 25, 2021 1:25am | Edited 3:06am
Weekly High 1.3750 Versus 1.3775 Forecasted High
(- 25 pips difference)
Weekly Low 1.3609 Versus 1.3510 Forecasted Low
(- 99 pips difference)

Accuracy Level 68%

I'm somewhat disappointed that this week only had 141 pips range, my bearish bias still occured and is still intact. On to next week Forecast again tomorrow.

Cheers,
George
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Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #625,902
  • Sep 25, 2021 4:46am Sep 25, 2021 4:46am
Quoting Georginson
Weekly High 1.3750 Versus 1.3775 Forecasted High (- 25 pips difference) Weekly Low 1.3609 Versus 1.3510 Forecasted Low (- 99 pips difference) Accuracy Level 68% I'm somewhat disappointed that this week only had 141 pips range, my bearish bias still occured and is still intact. On to next week Forecast again tomorrow. Cheers, George {image}

HAVE U CHECK DXY
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #625,903
  • Sep 25, 2021 5:03am Sep 25, 2021 5:03am
Quoting donfriday
{quote} HAVE U CHECK DXY {image}
It is making higher lows and higher highs... Break out is coming.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #625,904
  • Sep 25, 2021 5:15am Sep 25, 2021 5:15am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} It is making higher lows and higher highs... Break out is coming.

now we have 1 that is lower than the previous high i think it should see 9200
that can take gu up for 200pips before it drop

just my opinion
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #625,905
  • Sep 25, 2021 5:16am Sep 25, 2021 5:16am
Quoting Georginson
Weekly High 1.3750 Versus 1.3775 Forecasted High (- 25 pips difference) Weekly Low 1.3609 Versus 1.3510 Forecasted Low (- 99 pips difference) Accuracy Level 68% I'm somewhat disappointed that this week only had 141 pips range, my bearish bias still occured and is still intact. On to next week Forecast again tomorrow. Cheers, George {image}
Can you kindly reveal how to get 68% from this?
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Air force
  • #625,906
  • Sep 25, 2021 5:57am Sep 25, 2021 5:57am
Weekly making lower highs

but can't make lower lows
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #625,907
  • Sep 25, 2021 7:39am Sep 25, 2021 7:39am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Can you kindly reveal how to get 68% from this?{image}
Bias Forecast: - Bearish
Bias Outcome: - Bearish
Forecast Accuracy : 85%/100%

Possible High Forecast: - 1.3775
Actual High Result: - 1.3750
Forecast Accuracy: - 85%/100%

Possible Low Forecast: - 1.3510
Actual Low Result: - 1.3609
Forecast Accuracy: - 52%/100%

Range Forecast: - 265 pips
Range Result: - 141 pips
Range Accuracy: 53%/100%

That's 275%/400%... That's 68.8%.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #625,908
  • Sep 25, 2021 7:55am Sep 25, 2021 7:55am
Love the last paragraph ...

"start your own house project that when you close ur eyes you can walk inside without anyone showing u around."


Quoting donfriday
A trading strategy is like a house, if the house building look alike the inside will never look alike because the person that live in the other house doesnt know what his/her neighbor has. in most cases houses dont look alike same way nobody look 100% like you even when you are twins. Now i want you to treat this business as such, i understand you want to be a success and you are always feeling like why me when you see someone post his trading setup and profit. stop looking at the money aspect and focus on the game you came to play, now develop...
not euphoria follower
  • #625,909
  • Edited 8:59am Sep 25, 2021 8:22am | Edited 8:59am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Bias Forecast: - Bearish Bias Outcome: - Bearish Forecast Accuracy : 85%/100% Possible High Forecast: - 1.3775 Actual High Result: - 1.3750 Forecast Accuracy: - 85%/100% Possible Low Forecast: - 1.3510 Actual Low Result: - 1.3609 Forecast Accuracy: - 52%/100% Range Forecast: - 265 pips Range Result: - 141 pips Range Accuracy: 53%/100% That's 275%/400%... That's 68.8%.
Bias Forecast: - Bearish
Bias Outcome: - Bearish
Forecast Accuracy : 85%/100%
??? Excuse me, don't understand. Silly me

Possible High Forecast: - 1.3775
Actual High Result: - 1.3750
Forecast Accuracy: - 85%/100%
How it was derived? What is reference point/benchmark? I.e. relative to weekly open - 32% (12/37), since the price starts moving from there.
Same about lows. 56%

Range Forecast: - 265 pips
Range Result: - 141 pips
Range Accuracy: 53%/100%
Agree. Actual vs forecast intersects by ~53% (rounded up)

Another example with the same ranges:
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Air force
  • #625,910
  • Sep 25, 2021 9:02am Sep 25, 2021 9:02am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Bias Forecast: - Bearish Bias Outcome: - Bearish Forecast Accuracy : 85%/100% ??? Excuse me, don't understand. Silly me Possible High Forecast: - 1.3775 Actual High Result: - 1.3750 Forecast Accuracy: - 85%/100% How it was derived? What is reference point/benchmark? I.e. relative to weekly open - 32% (12/37), since the price starts moving from there. Same about lows. 56% Range Forecast: - 265 pips Range Result: - 141 pips Range Accuracy: 53%/100% Agree. Actual vs forecast intersects by ~53% (rounded up) Another example with...
Why excluding this bias forecast from the equation?
Also Open to low distance was 120 pips, so how is that 32%?

I also need any Forecast you have done to assess how you have rated or how you will rate yours?
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #625,911
  • Sep 25, 2021 9:06am Sep 25, 2021 9:06am
Quoting donfriday
{quote} HAVE U CHECK DXY {image}
What if Dxy breaks your trendline and heads towards 90? What say you about that
  • #625,912
  • Sep 25, 2021 9:26am Sep 25, 2021 9:26am
Quoting Nd10
{quote} What if Dxy breaks your trendline and heads towards 90? What say you about that


what if i am in the direction of the 90?
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #625,913
  • Sep 25, 2021 9:46am Sep 25, 2021 9:46am
Quoting donfriday
{quote} now we have 1 that is lower than the previous high i think it should see 9200 that can take gu up for 200pips before it drop just my opinion
That is an assumption mate not technically backed up. Below are the reasons GBPUSD rate will crash to 1.3510/1.3350 in days/weeks ahead.

✓ Double top of 1.4240/50 made in February and June, which has been followed by lower highs of 1.3983, 1.3957 and 1.3913...
✓ The Open price of the year being 1.3650 has broken down to 1.3570 which is further credence that the bears are in control...
✓ The current price (1.3670) is closer to the low of the year (1.3450) and farther from the high of the year (1.4249) which means price is vulnerable to break lower...
✓ Minimum Yearly range since Year 2011 to year 2020 is 1075 pips and this year 2021 range so far is 799 pips which means at least 280 more pips will be added/subtracted to/from 1.4249/1.3450 which means 1.4529 or 1.3170 must be seen this year...
✓ Also noteworthy that since year 2011, GBPUSD has always gone above and below the yearly open by 250 pips or more, while this year GBPUSD rate is yet to drop by 250 pips or more, which will take us to 1.3400 and even lower.
✓ Minimum August to December range is 820 pips, so far the range stands at (1.3957 - 1.3602) 355 pips, which means additional 415 pips is expected to break either the high of 1.3957 or the low of 1.3602. With the current price being 1.3670, the low is highly vulnerable to break to 1.3180 area.
✓ Minimum Monthly range since the beginning of this year is 330 pips, This September range is 304 pips which means additional 26 pips to break either the high of 1.3913 or the low of 1.3609, which means 1.3939 or 1.3583 must be seen in this last 4 trade days of September. 1.3583 Looks really vulnerable and a break down of 1.3570 will have a clean target of 1.3370 in sight.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #625,914
  • Sep 25, 2021 10:38am Sep 25, 2021 10:38am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} That is an assumption mate not technically backed up. Below are the reasons GBPUSD rate will crash to 1.3510/1.3350 in days/weeks ahead. ✓ Double top of 1.4240/50 made in February and June, which has been followed by lower highs of 1.3983, 1.3957 and 1.3913... ✓ The Open price of the year being 1.3650 has broken down to 1.3570 which is further credence that the bears are in control... ✓ The current price (1.3670) is closer to the low of the year (1.3450) and farther from the high of the year (1.4249) which means price...

Currently daily and weekly is pointing down except we are still at the bottom range that price have been rejected twice already.

i am seeing 13800 as first target a break above or rejection will now give me enough clue.
i know you also use RSI but i dont know how or what factors u use them for..

take a look at the monday candle and rsi and look at thursday candle and rsi its a regular bullish DIV



i want to see 138 then maybe sellers will attack more
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #625,915
  • Edited 11:13am Sep 25, 2021 10:58am | Edited 11:13am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Why excluding this bias forecast from the equation? Also Open to low distance was 120 pips, so how is that 32%? I also need any Forecast you have done to assess how you have rated or how you will rate yours?
Quote
Same about lows. 56%
not 32%

Why excluding this bias forecast from the equation?
Why it's there, are you forecasting range or bias? So many qualitative variables available... Also why it's 85% and not 100%?
If you have quality and quantity as inputs, output must be quality (bearish/bullish), not quantity.

Remained question:
Quote
Possible High Forecast: - 1.3775
Actual High Result: - 1.3750
Forecast Accuracy: - 85%/100%
How it was derived? What is reference point/benchmark? I.e. relative to weekly open - 32% (12/37), since the price starts moving from there.
It is not clear where the numbers come from

I also need any Forecast you have done to assess how you have rated or how you will rate yours?
I do not provide forecasts with subsequent accuracy estimates. And not attacking you, just trying to understand.
The range prediction method is great. Keep it up!
Method of calculation is strange and overestimates the level of accuracy. Anyway...
Peace
Air force
  • #625,916
  • Sep 25, 2021 11:09am Sep 25, 2021 11:09am
Quoting sleewc
{quote} Hi Pat; Thanks for sharing. Question, how do we know that if the price wont breakout at Support or Resistance level?

No, we don;t . ;
BUT,
If you buy support and sell resistance you won't be too far off base.
If a level doesn't hold then your stop loss should be your parachute to jump off the trade.

It doesn't make you wrong if the level does not hold.
What will make you wrong is if you didn't set a stop loss.

Another important things to remember when trading S&R is ;
Support and resistance levels that are located on the daily chart are stronger than levels that are only visible in very short time frames.
And remember, just because you are using a support or resistance level that appears on the daily chart, this does not mean that you must hold onto the trade for days.
Often, these levels are tested repeatedly on an intra-day basis.

The fact is it is much easier to trade intra-day charts and shorter time frames when you are aware of key levels on the daily chart.

There are plenty of 5 star threads in FF to learn the craft of trading and S&R risk points. Chick it out.

Wish you the best in your quest for pips.

PAT
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #625,917
  • Sep 25, 2021 11:24am Sep 25, 2021 11:24am
Quoting donfriday
{quote} Currently daily and weekly is pointing down except we are still at the bottom range that price have been rejected twice already. i am seeing 13800 as first target a break above or rejection will now give me enough clue. i know you also use RSI but i dont know how or what factors u use them for.. take a look at the monday candle and rsi and look at thursday candle and rsi its a regular bullish DIV i want to see 138 then maybe sellers will attack more {image}
Good luck with your anticipation of 1.3800, I will not share any more information on this thread anymore this year but I will be acknowledging the levels I highlighted previously whenever it happens and cheering on when necessary.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #625,918
  • Edited 11:52am Sep 25, 2021 11:29am | Edited 11:52am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Good luck with your anticipation of 1.3800, I will not share any more information on this thread anymore this year but I will be acknowledging the levels I highlighted previously whenever it happens and cheering on when necessary.

really

we have a support at 136 and resistance at 138 and 139 and 140


136 remain support since Jan 2021 you are expecting it to be broken in the last quarter of the year?

we have 60 trading days left and out of the 60 only 40 can be traded then market will lost it volume to the preparation of coming holidays and profit taking.

we are all learning but backtesting GU for 5yrs we have never break s or r in last quarter before, history dont have to always repeat and we dont have to remain at the actual range infact since covid 19 market have lost it original trend..

anything can happen..
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #625,919
  • Sep 25, 2021 12:02pm Sep 25, 2021 12:02pm
Hmmm..
I am looking for short entries, selling pullbacks for 1.33

Great weekend
  • #625,920
  • Sep 25, 2021 12:07pm Sep 25, 2021 12:07pm
Quoting thevisitor
Hmmm.. I am looking for short entries, selling pullbacks for 1.33 Great weekend
Pull back to 1.38 for 1.33
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