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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #622,941
  • Edited 1:00pm Sep 11, 2021 7:01am | Edited 1:00pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} GBP/USD D1 Observations {image}

GBP/USD D1 Observations

As things stand, Price Failed to make a New High last Week, we could see Price Push Down to 1.37000

Don't forget,We Follow - Price Leads
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #622,942
  • Sep 11, 2021 7:06am Sep 11, 2021 7:06am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} GBP/USD D1 Observations As things stand, Price Failed to make a New High last Week, we could see Price Push Down to 1.37000 Don't forget,We Follow - Price Leads {image}
Theres no point me posting my chart, yours is better
Completely agree
  • #622,943
  • Sep 11, 2021 7:10am Sep 11, 2021 7:10am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Good work! Have a question. Are you using the Open price in your accuracy calculations and/or averaging it with prev. results? Doing something similar with Implied Volatility on daily basis, estimating accuracy by an eye... Thanks.
The accuracy level calculation is independent of previous results, it has to do with the margin of difference between the forecasted high/low to the actual high/low result.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #622,944
  • Sep 11, 2021 7:32am Sep 11, 2021 7:32am
Quoting Houtbay
The accuracy of ones technique and implementation is more important than the size time frame being used. The larger the time frame the larger the risk. The biggest risk is the trader and his/ her approach.
The larger the time frame the larger the risk.
That implies that the TF is the main factor that determines risk, which is simply not true: The trader is the main factor that determines risk. He can decide to risk large or small regardless of TF.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #622,945
  • Sep 11, 2021 7:39am Sep 11, 2021 7:39am
While i have 5 minutes on the weekend here is my take on GBPUSD


Cable was unable to break the structure high after two attempts and unable to break structure low at the first attempt.

Current H4 structure has broken the down side with a lower close so it is likely it will head to the 3729 structure low and a break below there will see heavy selling.


For Monday morning it will probably be a slight push up to test the 3861 Resistance turned support that was broken on the way down

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #622,946
  • Sep 11, 2021 8:04am Sep 11, 2021 8:04am
[quote=bilal1947;13702625]{quote} Hi MTF Daily bais is not very easy to me, why?

But why would you like to trade daily just as is? Remember there are 6 H4 bars in a day, follow and trade H4 Chart and check at end of day the daily chart to see if anything is showing up or started to develope.

The small body daily candles isn't find very often. Look at the daily chart of GBP, there are 2 reds followed by 'n green small body end of August start September. Look where the two red bodies occur, it was in line with the upper part of the 3 "normal" candles before it (which was part of a upward move). One would like to ask why the small bodies appeared at this junction. The answer is simple, the market was mainly in a down trend before the pullback, so when the small bodies appear, it was a clear sign of indecision, players had to decide whether the pullback is going to be a correctional a,b,c or a bigger wave 5 down. So, its decision time, which one is the more obvious path? Path of least resistance I would guess. The candle on Sept 1st went down in Asian session and turned sharply up in EU session to breach the body line of the candles before it. Interesting to note that it came back at the end of day but still managed to close well above the body line.

The rest is history.

The above may sound too tedious but its the way to go if you want to take advantage of small body candles on any time frame. You need to know what the charts are trying to tell you. Remember the charts are only displaying the psychology of the players behind the moves.
  • #622,947
  • Edited 8:39am Sep 11, 2021 8:13am | Edited 8:39am
...It's a good thing that in trading an edge it doesn't involve prediction as the situation re gbpusd across the t/f's is somewhat mixed as of the week's close, although overall the technical picture is not as strongly supportive of a bullish scenario now.

Friday's sell-off from the prev 1hr/4hr/dly sw hi zone = prev res = pot res to 3892 (last week's hi) saw a hi of 3888 and a lo right on the 38.2% of 3726-3888 confluence with steepest 1hr/4hr asc t/line that joins said 3726 with 3753, and the WP. Price closed close to the day's lo.

* The wkly t/f has now printed a HL @ 3602 and with the close of the weekly doji candle has now created a fractal LH at 3892 (re the contracting range) so some ranging on this t/f now within the overall uptrend established on it.
* The dly t/f is still ostensibly in an uptrend within the wider 4001-3572 contracting range on this t/f. Friday's daily candle closed as a gravestone doji/pinbar with a small bearish body. This candle is at least suggestive of more downside whether or not that be the greater probability. Should that scenario result it would create a LH at friday's 3888 hi on this t/f.
* The 4hr t/f will print a L below the last HL on that t/f, either @ Friday's lo or lower, where/whenever it forms. This t/f remains in an uptrend but the L will damage it and judging by the last 2 bearish thrust candles printed on the t/f, more downside may be to come.
* The 1hr t/f most vividly shows the downside move on Friday and this t/f starting with that 3888 Friday hi has printed a HH, HL, LH, 2nd LH and what will be a L when it forms fractally, so either serious damage to it's uptrend or the start of a potential new downtrend/ranging period on that t/f.

Hope everyone had a good week, and has a good week to come.

Dly, 1hr, then 4hr below.
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Attached Image
Trader with an Edge.
  • #622,948
  • Sep 11, 2021 8:14am Sep 11, 2021 8:14am
monday planing, 1.380 zone long setup for my C wave correction on potential bullish pattern
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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--- Have a nice weekend everyone
Daddy, Brother, Lover, Little Boy
  • #622,949
  • Sep 11, 2021 8:27am Sep 11, 2021 8:27am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Honestly I don't see this price breaking past 1.3910 has weekly candle has been making lower highs since that aggressive mid June weekly candle spotted in the chart. It's only a matter of time before 1.3570 will be tested again and broken convincingly to 1.33xx in days ahead. As far as 1.3910 remains unbroken this September, price will touch 1.3350 area. {image}
Hi mate, 6mth amr is 391 and in a time of contracting ranges it will have to go some to reach that. Even if it achieved the 6mth amr 3501 would be the lo. Anything can happen though and let's hope it does if only to increase the size of trading ranges currently being experienced, back to multi-year norms.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #622,950
  • Sep 11, 2021 8:41am Sep 11, 2021 8:41am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi mate, 6mth amr is 391 and in a time of contracting ranges it will have to go some to reach that. Even if it achieved the 6mth amr 3501 would be the lo. Anything can happen though and let's hope it does if only to increase the size of trading ranges currently being experienced, back to multi-year norms.
Hello Headland, you are right about the dwindling monthly ranges but this small ranges will have to become bigger ranges any moment from now. This year's range so far is 799 pips and the lowest yearly range since 2011 is 1100 pips also noteworthy that the lowest September range in the last 7 years is 530 pips... A big break can happen any moment. Fingers crossed.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #622,951
  • Sep 11, 2021 8:43am Sep 11, 2021 8:43am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} I only trade the D1 bias when the D1 TF is "in control". When preparing for battle, the commander wants as much Intel from all areas as possible. Intel from the western front may very well be of critical importance today where heavy activity has been occurring , but if he gets no Intel from the eastern front the next day and relies on the western front Intel, then he risks being annihilated by a "surprise" from the east. Why in the world do so many people adamantly refuse to get Intel from ALL of the TFs before making important decisions?...
Why do you NEED to know what all the time frame are telling you, its all useless information.
You trade one time frame, not 6 at the same time.
Take one time frame and trade what you see there and don't try to find a bias from something your'e not trading.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #622,952
  • Edited 10:27am Sep 11, 2021 8:51am | Edited 10:27am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Why do you NEED to know what all the time frame are telling you, its all useless information. You trade one time frame, not 6 at the same time. Take one time frame and trade what you see there and don't try to find a bias from something your'e not trading.
If it works for you great but I think most traders will see this as bad advice. Most will find it easier trading with a known context gained from at least 3 t/f's rather than in the isolation of just one t/f. As just one example -Knowing whether an entry you are taking is with/against a higher t/f (s) trend and what potential next higher t/f (+) obstacles there are to that trade, is for most important, and a sensible way to reduce risk.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #622,953
  • Sep 11, 2021 8:59am Sep 11, 2021 8:59am
Quoting Mr.Burger
monday planing, 1.380 zone long setup for my C wave correction on potential bullish pattern {image} --- Have a nice weekend everyone
Cakepan di 3750 -3775 kalo mau buy kayaknya bro... ada peluang bullish shark d situ buat daiily setup. Pola saat ini bearish dragon ( naked eye )

Imho
not euphoria follower
  • #622,954
  • Sep 11, 2021 8:59am Sep 11, 2021 8:59am
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} Agreed, what do you say about this weekly candle! {image}
To me GU needs one or two weeks max to be heavily bullish.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #622,955
  • Sep 11, 2021 9:03am Sep 11, 2021 9:03am
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} Agreed, what do you say about this weekly candle! {image}
Last candle is black and ...before green
not euphoria follower
  • #622,956
  • Sep 11, 2021 9:11am Sep 11, 2021 9:11am
Even if one uses only one time frame, one still needs to use information from other time frames.
  • #622,957
  • Sep 11, 2021 9:37am Sep 11, 2021 9:37am
Quoting iqyu5an
{quote} Last candle is black and ...before green
I like your analysis
  • #622,958
  • Sep 11, 2021 9:39am Sep 11, 2021 9:39am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} To me GU needs one or two weeks max to be heavily bullish.
I think starting from next week, lets see
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  • #622,959
  • Sep 11, 2021 9:44am Sep 11, 2021 9:44am
This way I can took profit from any wave, any time frame. I Just follow the price with full confidence.
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Intraday Trading is an Art _ hoda
  • #622,960
  • Sep 11, 2021 9:57am Sep 11, 2021 9:57am
Last Friday's bull was disappointing.
It wasn't even able to hit 1.39 and was 10 pips shy before it lost all its gain in the day.
Now that a pin bar like this has formed, I'm expecting more selling at the beginning of the week.
It will be safer to buy again starting from 1.3770 onwards.
This week, if the price does pull back (upwards) around 30 pips, I will look to sell.
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Aim for what's achievable and don't be a dreamer.
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