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  • #619,821
  • Edited 7:30am Aug 28, 2021 6:40am | Edited 7:30am
that tl on dxy won't hold
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #619,822
  • Aug 28, 2021 7:05am Aug 28, 2021 7:05am
Quoting Bones
{quote} do you believe the people moving this market take there cue off the media ,it's very strange you believe the manipulator is someone else can you say what month the taper should begin from that speech and what's involved
No, I don't think those who move this market take ANY cues from the media.

Just the opposite.

The masses don't move the market
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #619,823
  • Aug 28, 2021 7:08am Aug 28, 2021 7:08am
Quoting Bones
{quote} do you believe the people moving this market take there cue off the media ,it's very strange you believe the manipulator is someone else can you say what month the taper should begin from that speech and what's involved
I never said anything about the media manipulating the market.

It's not the market they are manipulating......

I think its strange you thought I was talking about the market.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #619,824
  • Edited 7:40am Aug 28, 2021 7:13am | Edited 7:40am
Quoting Bones
{quote} do you believe the people moving this market take there cue off the media ,it's very strange you believe the manipulator is someone else can you say what month the taper should begin from that speech and what's involved
No, from Powells speech, I have NO IDEA when they will begin tapering.

That's my point.

And yet, the media will have us believe all the voting members have made a commitment to taper this year.

One headline actually said this.

It's rubbish....

The media has a long, inglorious history over the past decade of manipulating the feds speeches, (particularly those regarding the taper), taking Fed comments out of context to create a whole new meaning.

They know that many of us prefer pre-packed, bite sized, chunks of info (and headlines) delivered to our door, unpacked, baked and served on a platter, rather than having to read the speeches for ourselves.

The media often prefers to print and broadcast the opinion of someone who reads voodoo into the Fed speeches, and comes up with an alternate view of what the Fed apparently really means when they talk about maintaining an accomodative policy and having concerns about the delta virus.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #619,825
  • Aug 28, 2021 7:28am Aug 28, 2021 7:28am
Quoting trumps
{quote} No, from Powells speech, I have NO IDEA when they will begin tapering. That's my point. And yet, the media will have us believe all the voting members have made a commitment to taper this year. One headline actually said this. It's rubbish....
I have mis read your post I don't know what a taper trolley is ,but the sentence seemed to indicate bullish pressure from the media ,
Only the media got that message from the other members direct on Thursday

'With the media continuing to manipulate Powell's remarks and push the taper trolley in direct contrast to Powell's actual speech, you can have a fair idea this pair is likely to come under more bullish pressure.'
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #619,826
  • Aug 28, 2021 7:35am Aug 28, 2021 7:35am
Quoting trumps
{quote} No, from Powells speech, I have NO IDEA when they will begin tapering. That's my point. And yet, the media will have us believe all the voting members have made a commitment to taper this year. One headline actually said this. It's rubbish.... The media has a long, inglorious history over the past decade of manipulating the feds speeches.
like what
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #619,827
  • Aug 28, 2021 7:42am Aug 28, 2021 7:42am
Quoting Bones
{quote} like what

I think headline news (media) are always going to big it up..that's there job i guess
  • #619,828
  • Aug 28, 2021 7:45am Aug 28, 2021 7:45am
Quoting Bones
{quote} I have mis read your post I don't know what a taper trolley is ,but the sentence seemed to indicate bullish pressure from the media , Only the media got that message from the other members direct on Thursday 'With the media continuing to manipulate Powell's remarks and push the taper trolley in direct contrast to Powell's actual speech, you can have a fair idea this pair is likely to come under more bullish pressure.'
No, not bullish pressure from the media.
The media is creating (liquidity), through its constant, ongoing taper talk.
So I have a fair idea this pair will go up.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #619,829
  • Aug 28, 2021 7:46am Aug 28, 2021 7:46am
Quoting Bones
{quote} like what
Are you being serious?
Read Powell's speeches over the last 6 months or so, then read the media headlines.

They are chalk and cheese.

They did it during 2013 and they are doing it again.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #619,830
  • Edited 9:51am Aug 28, 2021 7:50am | Edited 9:51am
Basic time-series analysis.
Looking at the ATR, the first thought is that volatility is about to start rising. Two options here: clear directional movement or range expansion.
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Footprint.
So far, the price has not broken anything significant (imo) and is in the previous daily DBD supply zone. Base above that area will bring cable more upside
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How it should look, roughly. https://atas.net/volume-analysis/bas...-and-true-one/
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If 92.6 doesn't hold, the next demand zone could be at 92.3 or prev. below 92
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(Must be confirmed by astrology or coin flip)
Air force
  • #619,831
  • Aug 28, 2021 7:51am Aug 28, 2021 7:51am
Quoting Bones
{quote} I have mis read your post I don't know what a taper trolley is ,but the sentence seemed to indicate bullish pressure from the media , Only the media got that message from the other members direct on Thursday 'With the media continuing to manipulate Powell's remarks and push the taper trolley in direct contrast to Powell's actual speech, you can have a fair idea this pair is likely to come under more bullish pressure.'
A Taper Trolley just means an agenda. A Taper message agenda.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #619,832
  • Aug 28, 2021 7:53am Aug 28, 2021 7:53am
Quoting trumps
{quote} Are you being serious? Read Powell's speeches over the last 6 months or so, then read the media headlines. They are chalk and cheese. They did it during 2013 and they are doing it again.
Im sorry I don't know them, you can highlight to me,
whys it matter if the people moving the market are analysts ?
what I noticed is that move on Friday started at almost exactly 3 GMT so that speech is delivered prior to any media coverage
I don't know how it works
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #619,833
  • Aug 28, 2021 7:58am Aug 28, 2021 7:58am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} And yet you didn't answer my main question... Does it make it harder to get your target pips?
No it doesn't make it harder, instead I will adjust my pips expectation to align with the current range condition.

Sorry for the late response.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #619,834
  • Aug 28, 2021 7:58am Aug 28, 2021 7:58am
This year, the media has spent very little time discussing the remarks Powell makes in his speeches.
They have spent an extraordinary amount of time repeatedly presenting quotes from Fed members. Little, bite sized quotes.

No mention of the sentence or paragraph the quote was a part of (context).

They did actually take a quote from Powell's speech this time. They isolated a fragment of his speech, separated the comment from the paragraph, and presented it as a headline.
This is usual practice for journalists.

However, in this instance, removing the context changed the meaning entirely.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #619,835
  • Aug 28, 2021 7:58am Aug 28, 2021 7:58am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} I think headline news (media) are always going to big it up..that's there job i guess
yea, theres going to be angles both ways also
I actually think the general media is FED friendly but anyone who looks close like a commentator or analyst think omg
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #619,836
  • Aug 28, 2021 8:01am Aug 28, 2021 8:01am
Quoting mysterio
{quote} I dont take notice of that pattern really, fails as often as it works What I see is a general downtrend, a daily supply area, then the lows on the daily chart were taken out to move higher, then took out the highs of the last two daily candles. I assume this is for liquidity to resume the real trend down. Whenever the Fed/JP speak it's normally an excuse for huge market manipulation before resuming in the other direction. Just my two cents, can be wrong. I can see arguments for the bulls too. Will react to the price next week and not overcommit...
Tapering should mean dollar bullishness ahead.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #619,837
  • Aug 28, 2021 8:06am Aug 28, 2021 8:06am
Quoting trumps
This year, the media has spent very little time discussing the remarks Powell makes in his speeches. They have spent an extraordinary amount of time repeatedly presenting quotes from Fed members. Little, bite sized quotes. No mention of the sentence or paragraph the quote was a part of (context). They did actually take a quote from Powell's speech this time. They isolated a fragment of his speech, separated the comment from the paragraph, and presented it as a headline. This is usual practice for journalists. However, in this instance, removing...
Also I think that saying they would taper but also keep pegging interest rates to 0% was a surprise in his speech
So if they try taper and interest rates go up, I'm left wondering what they gonna do ? its almost an impossible task like getting employment back to where it was

Thats the point, the goals are too high ,it won't happen
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #619,838
  • Aug 28, 2021 8:08am Aug 28, 2021 8:08am
Quoting Bones
{quote} Im sorry I don't know them, you can highlight to me, whys it matter if the people moving the market are analysts ? what I noticed is that move on Friday started at exactly 3 GMT so that speech is delivered prior to any media coverage I don't know how it works
You have lost me.
I never said people moving the market are anslysts. I never even suggested it.
Mate, it's 11pm here and I am in bed on my phone with wife asleep. I'm not going to dig around FF archives, cutting and pasting media headlines and Powell's past FOMC's to provide an opportunity for a comparison and contrast.

I will say this.
Powell has scarcely even mentioned taper this year, hardly once. His FOMC's and speeches have been all about accomodative policy and concerns about effect of delta on the economy.

The media have been all about this taper that is apparently just around the corner in September or thereabouts.
Off to sleep now.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #619,839
  • Aug 28, 2021 8:16am Aug 28, 2021 8:16am
Quoting Bones
{quote} Also I think that saying they would taper but also keep pegging interest rates to 0% was a surprise in his speech So if they try taper and interest rates go up, I'm left wondering what they gonna do ? its almost an impossible task like getting employment back to where it was Thats the point, the goals are too high ,it won't happen
When you read what Powell actually said when he mentioned Taper at Jackson Hole, you will see he didn't say they were going to taper this year.
He was reflecting on something he had said many months ago when laying out a potential path for tapering. A path dependent on inflation, employment.and the virus.

The media grabbed a tiny snippet, took it out of context, and just like magic, "shazzam" we have a taper this year.

Or not...
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #619,840
  • Aug 28, 2021 8:22am Aug 28, 2021 8:22am
Quoting trumps
{quote} When you read what Powell actually said when he mentioned Taper at Jackson Hole, you will see he didn't say they were going to aper this year. He was reflecting on something he had said many months ago when laying out a potential path for tapering. A path dependent on inflation, employment.andvthe virus. The media grabbed a tiny snippet, took it out of context, and just like magic, "shazzam" we have a taper this year. Or not...
It's all those other Fed members put the narrative out there ,the confusion stems with all those Thursday FED talking heads + everyone knows they should stop inflating housing and assets straight away, I'm looking at a monstrously overstimulated economy where tax receipts have broken all records just like everyone else.
What I don't get is any faith in Powell whatsoever.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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