Sorry for traffic jam.. GL
1
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- #618,501
- Aug 21, 2021 7:40am Aug 21, 2021 7:40am
- Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Always Decisive | 4,425 Posts
- #618,505
- Edited 8:45am Aug 21, 2021 8:17am | Edited 8:45am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 24,286 Posts
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
- #618,506
- Edited 1:48pm Aug 21, 2021 9:42am | Edited 1:48pm
- Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Always Decisive | 4,425 Posts
- #618,507
- Aug 21, 2021 11:03am Aug 21, 2021 11:03am
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,809 Posts
Trader with an Edge.
- #618,511
- Aug 21, 2021 11:44pm Aug 21, 2021 11:44pm
- Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Always manage your risk & leverage | 7,339 Posts
not euphoria follower
- #618,512
- Aug 22, 2021 12:35am Aug 22, 2021 12:35am
- Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Always manage your risk & leverage | 7,339 Posts
not euphoria follower
- #618,513
- Aug 22, 2021 1:20am Aug 22, 2021 1:20am
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: bye FF | 8,806 Posts
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
- #618,514
- Aug 22, 2021 3:00am Aug 22, 2021 3:00am
- Joined Aug 2018 | Status: Research Analyst | 4,290 Posts
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
- #618,515
- Aug 22, 2021 3:28am Aug 22, 2021 3:28am
- Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trader | 4,386 Posts
If you’ve been thinking that this year has been a bit too easy for US stock market bulls, you’re definitely onto something.
Astoundingly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone nearly ten months without even a pedestrian 5% pullback! To put this statistic into context, the Dow has historically seen at least a -5% correction every 71 trading days, or roughly every 3.5 months, so on average, we would have expected three such pullbacks since the start of November instead of zero.
So, when the index broke out to fresh record highs above 35,100 earlier this month, index traders thought that we were in for more of the same steady grind higher in the Dow. This week’s price action has thrown a potential spanner in the works for bulls. Despite a record-setting Q2 earnings season in which a staggering 87% of large cap companies beat earnings and revenue estimates, the major indices have rolled over this week and are currently testing support.
Looking at the DJIA specifically, prices have broken back below the 35,100 level to test the 50-day EMA near 34,800. The critical area to watch moving forward will be the bottom of the 9-month rising channel in the 34,500 zone; a break below that key area could open the door for a long-awaited -5% (or more) pullback, with the next logical levels of support coming in near previous lows at 33,750 or the 200-day EMA all the way down at 32,700:
Of course, the recent track record and general “buy the dip” zeitgeist points to new highs in the index sooner rather than later, so if the Dow can hold yesterday’s low and rally back above 35,100 next week, we could testing the 36,000 level by September.
Astoundingly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone nearly ten months without even a pedestrian 5% pullback! To put this statistic into context, the Dow has historically seen at least a -5% correction every 71 trading days, or roughly every 3.5 months, so on average, we would have expected three such pullbacks since the start of November instead of zero.
So, when the index broke out to fresh record highs above 35,100 earlier this month, index traders thought that we were in for more of the same steady grind higher in the Dow. This week’s price action has thrown a potential spanner in the works for bulls. Despite a record-setting Q2 earnings season in which a staggering 87% of large cap companies beat earnings and revenue estimates, the major indices have rolled over this week and are currently testing support.
Looking at the DJIA specifically, prices have broken back below the 35,100 level to test the 50-day EMA near 34,800. The critical area to watch moving forward will be the bottom of the 9-month rising channel in the 34,500 zone; a break below that key area could open the door for a long-awaited -5% (or more) pullback, with the next logical levels of support coming in near previous lows at 33,750 or the 200-day EMA all the way down at 32,700:
Of course, the recent track record and general “buy the dip” zeitgeist points to new highs in the index sooner rather than later, so if the Dow can hold yesterday’s low and rally back above 35,100 next week, we could testing the 36,000 level by September.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
- #618,516
- Aug 22, 2021 3:41am Aug 22, 2021 3:41am
- Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Always manage your risk & leverage | 7,339 Posts
not euphoria follower
- #618,517
- Aug 22, 2021 3:41am Aug 22, 2021 3:41am
- Joined Apr 2021 | Status: Trader | 5,844 Posts
however this last printed monthly is very likely false ,fed talk is very powerful also this week I think is not an economic move ,more geopolitical, gold for instance can go up with $ in those circumstances especially any war escalation . {image} {image}
If you mean Taliban, US Army already withdrawn and evacuated Afghanistan. US just wants to secure Kabil Airport and they leave that mission to Turkish Army. So i don't see any war chance, at least there's none for USA. US government also stated that "What happens in Afghanistan is Afghans own problem, US will not get involved anymore"
So for GU and EU, they are going down for not only this week but 3 consecutive weeks. It's highly economic in my opinion. USD is bullish since the last GDP numbers.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
- #618,518
- Aug 22, 2021 3:44am Aug 22, 2021 3:44am
- Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trader | 4,386 Posts
{quote} @Navin2007... Last 6 years August most Repeated Range is 400 - 450 pips Last 6 months: most Repeated range is 412 - 460 pips (May, June &July) Maximum range is 675 pips (February) Minimum range is 341 pips (April) This August so far 355 pips (1.3957 - 1.3602) ✓ August Range has exceeded Minimum of 341 pips ✓ Next possible Range Target is 412 pips Which means 412 pips minus 355 pips (Current Range) = 57 pips.Since Current price (1.3623 is closer to the low) it means possibility of 412 pips range completion to the Low is realistic......
Thanks for sharing your inciteful work.
You probably do this work in excel. can you share a sample file so that I can do the same research with US30.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
- #618,519
- Aug 22, 2021 3:47am Aug 22, 2021 3:47am
- Joined Apr 2021 | Status: Trader | 5,844 Posts
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
- #618,520
- Aug 22, 2021 3:48am Aug 22, 2021 3:48am
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 19,815 Posts
{quote} @Navin2007... Last 6 years August most Repeated Range is 400 - 450 pips Last 6 months: most Repeated range is 412 - 460 pips (May, June &July) Maximum range is 675 pips (February) Minimum range is 341 pips (April) This August so far 355 pips (1.3957 - 1.3602) ✓ August Range has exceeded Minimum of 341 pips ✓ Next possible Range Target is 412 pips Which means 412 pips minus 355 pips (Current Range) = 57 pips.
I look into mostly tec and I even like you draw up charts from years ago Ie trend lines . You would be amazed when you put in a tl from 5/10 years ago what it shows up . Even patterns . I posted gold weekly chart and there are 2 boxes spread a year or so apart that nearly look the same . At the time the box on the left bike out to hit its bottom tl . Now we have a box that look prototype much the same and if or when it breaks that’s where I or my opinion is gold 1550 even long term . 1340 
yes crypto could replace gold . I was watching a program about the top 10 crypto millionaires/ billionaire s. Yes I am currently buying into ethusd . If anybody interested look at it’s day chart and please let me know what you think .. long post sorry . Regards E