Why do Newbies Lose? | Page 20 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Why you lose money and will always lose 44 replies

How do you newbies not lose your motivation? 125 replies

Did we Lose any Brokers? Are we going to Lose a few? 1 reply

Which FX Trading Course/System is Good for newbies? 41 replies

Fully recovered!! Newbies take note!! 33 replies

Attachments: Why do Newbies Lose?
Exit Attachments

Why do Newbies Lose?

  • #381
  • Jul 28, 2021 4:31pm Jul 28, 2021 4:31pm
I wonder, why you think that the chances of winning and lsing are 50:50?
Markets are unpredictable but they are still influenced by many forces which can be tracked down and taken into account while doing market analysis. It is like the weather forecast: imagine that there are heavy clouds and lightening, so, the chances are that it will rain rather it will be sunny in a minute. That is called Bayesian theorem. It includes not only the possibilities of independent events but also the factors that can influence those possibilities. That is why traders do market analysis, because if they could make a living flipping a coin, they wouldn't waste lots of time and efforts on calculations, reading the news and education. They need to determine the forces which affect the price and decide where the price is more likely to go. It is not guessing, but it is about calculating and taking risks.
More than that, even if there were 50:50 chance of success, you should also take into account money management. 'If a newbie makes 100 trades'. Do you really think that a beginner can ever make so many trades if they know nothing about money and risk management?
  • #382
  • Jul 28, 2021 8:37pm Jul 28, 2021 8:37pm
Hi,

The comments posted here are so true.
For me, the losses happen more when I don't stick to the original plan.
Another thing that often does me in is wanting a larger TP, when just accepting a small - but acceptable TP would have closed the trade, provided me with more equity and freed me up for setting up a new trade.

Dave
  • #383
  • Aug 4, 2021 4:02am Aug 4, 2021 4:02am
This is such an interesting topic and there is so many different avenues to explore.

My thoughts for now.

It's like any new skill/profession and needs to be treated like one. You can't expect to jump into surgery without practice and perform an operation on someone expecting to complete it without mistakes, there is time needed to learn and execute correctly.

This is also the profession where you can be wrong more times than right and still end up profitable due to risk and money management, a lot of new traders think and feel they need to be right 100% of the time and frustrated when they lose a trade. Where this is the cost of business and it happens, when traders accept this and treat it like so, they feel more content and start switching mentality into just knowing they need a long term edge.

Most new traders risk too much per trade on their accounts as they chase profits and the ideal trading dream. This affects their risk of ruin. Learning the risk of ruin and lowering the risk percentage per trade decreases their chance of blowing up dramatically.

So much more we can get into!

New traders jump into a live account and risk real money far earlier than needed, there is no rush at all. There are ways to earn while you learn too which reduces risk.
  • #384
  • Aug 20, 2021 9:37pm Aug 20, 2021 9:37pm
Quoting davesmith
This is such an interesting topic and there is so many different avenues to explore. My thoughts for now. It's like any new skill/profession and needs to be treated like one. You can't expect to jump into surgery without practice and perform an operation on someone expecting to complete it without mistakes, there is time needed to learn and execute correctly. This is also the profession where you can be wrong more times than right and still end up profitable due to risk and money management, a lot of new traders think and feel they need to be right...

Just for those who Are still looking for a start
Here is a starter,
Try this folk
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2021-08-21 095329.png Size: 171 KB
  • #385
  • Aug 20, 2021 10:48pm Aug 20, 2021 10:48pm
Quoting Dingoman-two
{quote} Just for those who Are still looking for a start Here is a starter, Try this folk {image}
Just curious what does this mean "Try this folk"?
  • #386
  • Aug 20, 2021 11:21pm Aug 20, 2021 11:21pm
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} Just curious what does this mean "Try this folk"?
"REALY"??

Inserted Video
  • #387
  • Aug 21, 2021 7:30pm Aug 21, 2021 7:30pm
Quoting Dingoman-two
{quote} "REALY"?? https://youtu.be/kfTk10yIvP0
I am familiar with this strategy, In the video, shows many fakes outs, can you show some real trading results from using it?
  • #388
  • Aug 22, 2021 3:08am Aug 22, 2021 3:08am
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} I am familiar with this strategy, In the video, shows many fakes outs, can you show some real trading results from using it?

Can you show me yours?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2021-08-22 160802.png Size: 221 KB
  • #389
  • Aug 22, 2021 1:22pm Aug 22, 2021 1:22pm
Quoting Dingoman-two
{quote} Can you show me yours? {image}
I really do not scalp, based on its too much of grind. Based on the your screen shot, using this on BTC and gold only, just curious if you trade this on FX? (I see the FX pairs seen in your screen shot). Also I do not see any stop losses in place, what happens if your system goes down? I also do not see any commission being taken out either?
  • #390
  • Aug 22, 2021 1:41pm Aug 22, 2021 1:41pm
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} I really do not scalp, based on its too much of grind. Based on the your screen shot, using this on BTC and gold only, just curious if you trade this on FX? (I see the FX pairs seen in your screen shot). Also I do not see any stop losses in place, what happens if your system goes down? I also do not see any commission being taken out either?
Profits only come into play after a small percentage has been taken as a commission,
As far as stop losses go, I am the stop loss, this way I avoid the stop loss hunters,
Easy Peasy

P/S Still waiting to see yours my friend

  • #391
  • Aug 22, 2021 2:04pm Aug 22, 2021 2:04pm
Quoting Dingoman-two
{quote} Can you show me yours? {image}
with gold, ETH, BTC how is the pip reading? In GU ADR bout 50 to 60 pips, so average SL about 60pips.... with commodities x10 like for gold, oil, and for BTC, ETH x100 is it correct? but how to read their pip????
  • #392
  • Aug 22, 2021 2:07pm Aug 22, 2021 2:07pm
Quoting ntk
{quote} with gold, ETH, BTC how is the pip reading? In GU ADR bout 50 to 60 pips, so average SL about 60pips.... with commodities x10 like for gold, oil, and for BTC, ETH x100 is it correct? but how to read their pip????
Hi ntk
I don't waste my time with these sorts of things I just study the charts
  • #393
  • Aug 22, 2021 3:29pm Aug 22, 2021 3:29pm
Quoting Dingoman-two
{quote} Hi ntk I don't waste my time with these sorts of things I just study the charts
ah....

PLS teach me how to on the BTCUSD chart. I see in H4 it has 1960 points spread, what do you mean you are your SL? if you set pending order it would be triggered showing way too far away with DD ...I see price recently has broken out of H4 range then depletion of momentum, fail to break resistance price, reject by the pivot level R1, moving down, leaving the buy zone of the DBB, D1 is falling, weekly is ranging, MN1 bias is up.


IN H1 with D1 bias down, price is moving in the sell zone of the DBB. but price seems to bounce of the prev W1 high. So we mark the POI area

In M15 price did touched and being rejected from the prev weekly high HoW1, price cn only make a LH, not new HH, then come bck to the prev weekly high for retest, we expect there it would break though or rebounce, and wait to see what follows... Still remind us that current H4 trend is down, D1 down, etc so we would sell, if M15 break though nd confirm we enter sell in line with trend, if bounce we may wait or enter a buy order, be minded that buy would be a short counter trend trade ...

Is that you mean you rather read the chart ...

pls teach us
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: d0bda36d386f796a3f22bb9367a0376d.png Size: 127 KB
  • #394
  • Aug 23, 2021 5:17am Aug 23, 2021 5:17am
Newbies think they can predict the future with an indicator, and experienced traders deny that, but the truth is that newbies, who are normal people, are "right": it's possible. Experienced traders just tend to magnify what they were able to do with their human capabilities and they try to hide the fact that they are not able to create a sophisticated program that predicts the market, because this would hurt their proud. Programs that predict the market already exist, they are all machine learning softwares, but both newbies and experienced traders are not able to build them or to find them on the web, because this is not possible. So in theory it's possible to predict the market, but in practice it's not possible to achieve for now...maybe in the next 20 years, but that would be the moment when trading would be banned.
  • #395
  • Aug 24, 2021 8:01am Aug 24, 2021 8:01am
As a newbie I was lucky on the first demo account.
I was so lucky that I began to think that there was nothing difficult about it.
I didn't understand why people come up with different strategies or follow the main ones, because I'm already good at it.
But then I realized that everything is not so simple.
Who else was so lucky in the beginning?
  • #396
  • Aug 25, 2021 5:39am Aug 25, 2021 5:39am
It is all part of the learning process. That's why it is important to use demo whilst educating yourself.
  • #397
  • Sep 2, 2021 7:42am Sep 2, 2021 7:42am
Using price trying to predict price is not stupid, it's crazy.
  • #398
  • Sep 2, 2021 11:37am Sep 2, 2021 11:37am
Newbies lose because they are new and inexperienced.
  • #399
  • Sep 4, 2021 11:59am Sep 4, 2021 11:59am
Quoting jo24
Newbies think they can predict the future with an indicator, and experienced traders deny that, but the truth is that newbies, who are normal people, are "right"
The reason indicators can not predict the future is because the market is a battlefield. Big players get rich when you lose. Big players always win because they know most people make their decisions based on indicators. In spite of that, a small number of indicators are useful, but not the ones most people use.

90% of users use indicators and lose 90% of their accounts in 90 days or less. This is 90-90-90 rule.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
  • #400
  • Sep 14, 2021 7:03am Sep 14, 2021 7:03am
No Trading Plan or Risk Management
0 traders viewing now