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Why do Newbies Lose?

I wonder, why you think that the chances of winning and lsing are 50:50?
Markets are unpredictable but they are still influenced by many forces which can be tracked down and taken into account while doing market analysis. It is like the weather forecast: imagine that there are heavy clouds and lightening, so, the chances are that it will rain rather it will be sunny in a minute. That is called Bayesian theorem. It includes not only the possibilities of independent events but also the factors that can influence those possibilities. That is why traders do market analysis, because if they could make a living flipping a coin, they wouldn't waste lots of time and efforts on calculations, reading the news and education. They need to determine the forces which affect the price and decide where the price is more likely to go. It is not guessing, but it is about calculating and taking risks.
More than that, even if there were 50:50 chance of success, you should also take into account money management. 'If a newbie makes 100 trades'. Do you really think that a beginner can ever make so many trades if they know nothing about money and risk management?
Hi,

The comments posted here are so true.
For me, the losses happen more when I don't stick to the original plan.
Another thing that often does me in is wanting a larger TP, when just accepting a small - but acceptable TP would have closed the trade, provided me with more equity and freed me up for setting up a new trade.

Dave
This is such an interesting topic and there is so many different avenues to explore.

My thoughts for now.

It's like any new skill/profession and needs to be treated like one. You can't expect to jump into surgery without practice and perform an operation on someone expecting to complete it without mistakes, there is time needed to learn and execute correctly.

This is also the profession where you can be wrong more times than right and still end up profitable due to risk and money management, a lot of new traders think and feel they need to be right 100% of the time and frustrated when they lose a trade. Where this is the cost of business and it happens, when traders accept this and treat it like so, they feel more content and start switching mentality into just knowing they need a long term edge.

Most new traders risk too much per trade on their accounts as they chase profits and the ideal trading dream. This affects their risk of ruin. Learning the risk of ruin and lowering the risk percentage per trade decreases their chance of blowing up dramatically.

So much more we can get into!

New traders jump into a live account and risk real money far earlier than needed, there is no rush at all. There are ways to earn while you learn too which reduces risk.
Quoting davesmith
This is such an interesting topic and there is so many different avenues to explore. My thoughts for now. It's like any new skill/profession and needs to be treated like one. You can't expect to jump into surgery without practice and perform an operation on someone expecting to complete it without mistakes, there is time needed to learn and execute correctly. This is also the profession where you can be wrong more times than right and still end up profitable due to risk and money management, a lot of new traders think and feel they need to be right...

Just for those who Are still looking for a start
Here is a starter,
Try this folk
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"As always trade wisely folks,And then with Patience,time will reveal all"
Quoting Dingoman-two
{quote} Just for those who Are still looking for a start Here is a starter, Try this folk {image}
Just curious what does this mean "Try this folk"?
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} Just curious what does this mean "Try this folk"?
"REALY"??

Inserted Video
"As always trade wisely folks,And then with Patience,time will reveal all"
Quoting Dingoman-two
{quote} "REALY"?? https://youtu.be/kfTk10yIvP0
I am familiar with this strategy, In the video, shows many fakes outs, can you show some real trading results from using it?
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} I am familiar with this strategy, In the video, shows many fakes outs, can you show some real trading results from using it?

Can you show me yours?
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"As always trade wisely folks,And then with Patience,time will reveal all"
Quoting Dingoman-two
{quote} Can you show me yours? {image}
I really do not scalp, based on its too much of grind. Based on the your screen shot, using this on BTC and gold only, just curious if you trade this on FX? (I see the FX pairs seen in your screen shot). Also I do not see any stop losses in place, what happens if your system goes down? I also do not see any commission being taken out either?
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} I really do not scalp, based on its too much of grind. Based on the your screen shot, using this on BTC and gold only, just curious if you trade this on FX? (I see the FX pairs seen in your screen shot). Also I do not see any stop losses in place, what happens if your system goes down? I also do not see any commission being taken out either?
Profits only come into play after a small percentage has been taken as a commission,
As far as stop losses go, I am the stop loss, this way I avoid the stop loss hunters,
Easy Peasy

P/S Still waiting to see yours my friend

"As always trade wisely folks,And then with Patience,time will reveal all"
Quoting Dingoman-two
{quote} Can you show me yours? {image}
with gold, ETH, BTC how is the pip reading? In GU ADR bout 50 to 60 pips, so average SL about 60pips.... with commodities x10 like for gold, oil, and for BTC, ETH x100 is it correct? but how to read their pip????
Quoting ntk
{quote} with gold, ETH, BTC how is the pip reading? In GU ADR bout 50 to 60 pips, so average SL about 60pips.... with commodities x10 like for gold, oil, and for BTC, ETH x100 is it correct? but how to read their pip????
Hi ntk
I don't waste my time with these sorts of things I just study the charts
"As always trade wisely folks,And then with Patience,time will reveal all"
Quoting Dingoman-two
{quote} Hi ntk I don't waste my time with these sorts of things I just study the charts
ah....

PLS teach me how to on the BTCUSD chart. I see in H4 it has 1960 points spread, what do you mean you are your SL? if you set pending order it would be triggered showing way too far away with DD ...I see price recently has broken out of H4 range then depletion of momentum, fail to break resistance price, reject by the pivot level R1, moving down, leaving the buy zone of the DBB, D1 is falling, weekly is ranging, MN1 bias is up.


IN H1 with D1 bias down, price is moving in the sell zone of the DBB. but price seems to bounce of the prev W1 high. So we mark the POI area

In M15 price did touched and being rejected from the prev weekly high HoW1, price cn only make a LH, not new HH, then come bck to the prev weekly high for retest, we expect there it would break though or rebounce, and wait to see what follows... Still remind us that current H4 trend is down, D1 down, etc so we would sell, if M15 break though nd confirm we enter sell in line with trend, if bounce we may wait or enter a buy order, be minded that buy would be a short counter trend trade ...

Is that you mean you rather read the chart ...

pls teach us
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Newbies think they can predict the future with an indicator, and experienced traders deny that, but the truth is that newbies, who are normal people, are "right": it's possible. Experienced traders just tend to magnify what they were able to do with their human capabilities and they try to hide the fact that they are not able to create a sophisticated program that predicts the market, because this would hurt their proud. Programs that predict the market already exist, they are all machine learning softwares, but both newbies and experienced traders are not able to build them or to find them on the web, because this is not possible. So in theory it's possible to predict the market, but in practice it's not possible to achieve for now...maybe in the next 20 years, but that would be the moment when trading would be banned.
As a newbie I was lucky on the first demo account.
I was so lucky that I began to think that there was nothing difficult about it.
I didn't understand why people come up with different strategies or follow the main ones, because I'm already good at it.
But then I realized that everything is not so simple.
Who else was so lucky in the beginning?
It is all part of the learning process. That's why it is important to use demo whilst educating yourself.
Using price trying to predict price is not stupid, it's crazy.
Newbies lose because they are new and inexperienced.
Quoting jo24
Newbies think they can predict the future with an indicator, and experienced traders deny that, but the truth is that newbies, who are normal people, are "right"
The reason indicators can not predict the future is because the market is a battlefield. Big players get rich when you lose. Big players always win because they know most people make their decisions based on indicators. In spite of that, a small number of indicators are useful, but not the ones most people use.

90% of users use indicators and lose 90% of their accounts in 90 days or less. This is 90-90-90 rule.
No Trading Plan or Risk Management
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