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Flying Dutchman

  • #541
  • Edited 3:14am Aug 17, 2021 2:34am | Edited 3:14am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} {image} {quote} My intuition was right luckily {image} {quote} to me it may be bullish.
entered longs

M30
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #542
  • Aug 17, 2021 3:54am Aug 17, 2021 3:54am
EU 1.18650
I want it today
  • #543
  • Aug 17, 2021 3:55am Aug 17, 2021 3:55am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} entered longs M30 {image} {image}

Nice entry points Bilal GU, good potential (big b@lls )


I flipped over to USDCAD.
As it ran up quickly to an algo repeating level I had locked in.
Then took a quick 10p short, and closed (that IS how I trade, no apologies lol, maybe too old to change now. Get in, get out = me )

.
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  • #544
  • Aug 17, 2021 3:59am Aug 17, 2021 3:59am
Want UC to break my monitor so that it can flow downwards
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  • #545
  • Aug 17, 2021 4:30am Aug 17, 2021 4:30am
Quoting Ihlas
Want UC to break my monitor so that it can flow downwards {image}

Cheers Ihlas, good fortunes today.

The weakness in my personal approach is that I genuinely do NOT know whether price will go up or down.

This doesn't mean that I am incapable of looking, at a daily chart for example, and forming a bias.

It's just that I am trying NOT to form biases anymore. And I was always fairly good with my biases. >50% easily.


BUT.

When price went against me, I would stubbornly 'stick' by my bias, EVEN though price movement went against me & showed me that it's NOT NOW lol.
Price eventually would (might) come back in my direction. Maybe that session, maybe the following day, or sometimes THREE days later.

At what cost. And I don't mean $$$$$$. I had worked out HOW to sitout a DD and how to fight out of it.

The 'rub' of trading that way, the real cost I mean, was TIME.

I would occasionally sit up all night & babysit a DD trade. Till the opportunity came as a reversal getting the trade back to BE or near, or a small profit.

Then I asked myself "what was I doing". Even though I COULD do it. Hours upon hours to rescue a DD trade. That was the cost.


So I ignore my own bias now. Took work believe me.
I do it now by having a target both above AND below the current level. And then I just watch how the market plays out. And "go" with the now direction.


Having said that. With U-CAD I took a look at the levels. And the next higher one from current price is 1.26690.
To get there the pair would have to do around 180% of ADR to reach it today.

If it's going that up direction, and not down now, then its likely another day, but I am only guessing
(after all, and as BW correctly says imho, it's a gambling game we all play, whether we like that 2nd-class wording much or not).

I am directionally neutral on U-CAD and will just watch till bedtime lol.

Good fortunes again Ih
  • #546
  • Aug 17, 2021 5:10am Aug 17, 2021 5:10am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Cheers Ihlas, good fortunes today. The weakness in my personal approach is that I genuinely do NOT know whether price will go up or down. This doesn't mean that I am incapable of looking, at a daily chart for example, and forming a bias. It's just that I am trying NOT to form biases anymore. And I was always fairly good with my biases. >50% easily. BUT. When price went against me, I would stubbornly 'stick' by my bias, EVEN though price movement went against me & showed me that it's NOT NOW lol. Price eventually would (might) come back in...
Hi TimeTells,
Thanks for sharing your experience and wisdom.
Shorting USDCAD might not be good idea here. Wil lock them at BE
Wish you (h/w)ealth
  • #547
  • Aug 17, 2021 5:22am Aug 17, 2021 5:22am
Quoting Ihlas
{quote} Hi TimeTells, Thanks for sharing your experience and wisdom. Shorting USDCAD might not be good idea here. Wil lock them at BE Wish you (h/w)ealth

Hi Ihlas,
cheers mate, U-CAD could easily go up some, yet on ADR most likely go down (damn, that bias wish again lol ).

all the best
  • #548
  • Aug 17, 2021 6:50am Aug 17, 2021 6:50am
Update on EJ: Getting close to 128.28/25. PA has slowed down. I am keeping the one trade open with Stop at 128.99 (red line). Next target after 128.38 is 128.28, then 128.18.
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  • #549
  • Aug 17, 2021 9:44am Aug 17, 2021 9:44am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Ok, given the contradicting response from nfp and sentiment index, and the muted response post fomc I am trying to figure which major direction EU and GU take this coming few weeks.

To me the market is at a crossroad which direction it takes from here. Your thoughts pls.

And your thoughts about the strengthening yen.
First, market response to the FA's you referenced was exactly as would be expected by the market. These FA's were supportive of existing market structure, and fit, by and large, with market expectations. In short, nothing in these numbers changed market structure for any currency pairs. that is why PA in all pairs has remained within the confines and boundaries of structure (for example: in the E$, there is a propensity to buy dollars; in the $J, there is a propensity for price to range). Regarding the $J, recent PA remains within the boundaries of existing structure, so what may appear to be Yen strength is only a reversal of previous Yen weakness, which was a reversal of previous Yen strength, etc.

Forex pricing, or future pricing, is not a deterministic mathematics model. You will never know enough to project forex prices into the future, beyond current PA, and even then, it's not certain. Forex pricing is probabilistic, and projections of PA, both short term and long term, are largely dependent on human behavior, or human reaction to current events. As I consider your comment of market crossroads, I am in agreement with you, because IMHO, market risk is on the rise. For example, political risk can change market participants perceptions of national economic strength and viability. My political risk assessments are on the move and still being analyzed. Nothing to change structure yet, but it's possible over the next few months.

So where will the E$, G$ and $J be in the next few weeks? As long as there are no changes to market structure, these three pairs will be within the probabilistic distribution dictated by structure. So, for the E$, given it's propensity to buy dollars, and given the limits of the global financial system, there is a good chance it will continue to move according to current PA . Same for the other pairs. This assessment is not a dodge of your question. It is an answer that fits a probabilistic nature of the forex, and an acknowledgement that deterministic models are not very helpful in forex trading.
  • #550
  • Edited 10:09am Aug 17, 2021 9:50am | Edited 10:09am
Back to the EJ, I have moved my stop to 128.70, and am watching PA as it failed to reach a new low in this current push down. A failure to take out that low would be a sign that 128.37 is the low, and a retracement is just ahead of us. IMHO...

If you guys are done talking about the EJ, I'll stop posting about it. Just let me know your thoughts.
  • #551
  • Aug 17, 2021 10:07am Aug 17, 2021 10:07am
Quoting GEfx
It is an answer that fits a probabilistic nature of the forex, and an acknowledgement that deterministic models are not very helpful in forex trading.
Thanks GEfx. The main takeaway is your stand in that bolded statement.

My personal stand is in the deterministic nature of asset pricing and valuation model with a probabilistic interpretation.
I believe you would have culled this from my posts.
Know what you trade
  • #552
  • Aug 17, 2021 10:12am Aug 17, 2021 10:12am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Thanks GEfx. The main takeaway is your stand in that bolded statement. My personal stand is in the deterministic nature of asset pricing and valuation model with a probabilistic interpretation. I believe you would have culled this from my posts.
I think it is fair for me to admit that in the short term, I trade like the next 2 to 4 hours is deterministic, with a stop based on my probabilistic model!
  • #553
  • Aug 17, 2021 11:08am Aug 17, 2021 11:08am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} My personal stand is in the deterministic nature of asset pricing and valuation model with a probabilistic interpretation. I believe you would have culled this from my posts.
Yes I did.
  • #554
  • Aug 17, 2021 12:42pm Aug 17, 2021 12:42pm
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  • #555
  • Edited 1:30pm Aug 18, 2021 1:15pm | Edited 1:30pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi deanyakobs, I must say well done, sir, for the time and effort you have put in to present an openly thought out chart process. I can tell very clearly you have done this in good faith. For yourself & for others. It also shows me you are actually looking at the process of a market. Rather than just putting up an MA here and MA there for example (which can work for some folks of course). For any NEW trader embarking on the precarious journey within Forex I hope this is the type of effort they might make, at some point, on their own, to...
Dear All,

Honestly, thats not my chart Mr. Time, but someone a.k.a CSJA post it in another thread that remind me whats really George real massage is about.
Cause i'm get lost too when UNCONCIOUSLLY i misdirect my focus because teknikal indicator.

George teaching is not easy at all, We must understand DEEP CONNECTION while read market maker mind in charts in real time.
NOT EASY ... . And the most important for me is : WHAT ALWAYS REPEAT CONSISTENLLY ( like you said).

I'm not getting there yet sir. I learn 1 year to understand George massage correctlly.
So muuuuuch to unlearn and :

THE PROCESS is more important.
THANKS

Kind Regard
  • #556
  • Aug 18, 2021 5:32pm Aug 18, 2021 5:32pm
Quoting deanyakobs
{quote} Dear All, Honestly, thats not my chart Mr. Time, but someone a.k.a CSJA post it in another thread that remind me whats really George real massage is about. Cause i'm get lost too when UNCONCIOUSLLY i misdirect my focus because teknikal indicator.
George teaching is not easy at all, We must understand DEEP CONNECTION while read market maker mind in charts in real time.
NOT EASY ... .
And the most important for me is : WHAT ALWAYS REPEAT CONSISTENLLY ( like you said).
I'm not getting there yet sir. I learn 1 year to understand...

A person's openness & honesty is their badge. Yours is never questioned, dean, thank you.



While I try not to paraphrase anybody elses work, sometimes I have to, just to to get my own thought process juices running.
(or maybe just to get me GOING, in a direction of my own).


Thinking about the processes of market behaviour is a pretty good single picture start to just contemplate.

If a trader was to look at a chart (imho) and try to predict, from MT4, what will happen NEXT, then they might go crazy from the possibilities.
If a trader wants to UNDERSTAND a 'next' tick move that could then form a certain candle, then they also might go crazy from an MT4 chart.

My takeaway from George's thread was mainly TARGETS, TARGETS, TARGETS.(thank you again, George)

Am I suggesting traders best CEASE trying to find the revelation of every subsequent candle (or tick) move, from where price is NOW.

Maybe.

I got back to targets, quickly lol. It's just what I did, others pursue different routes. That are very successful for them. We are all individuals.


For me, and for targets to ever be considered as valuable, then,

There HAD to be a target from "where" price came, to now, and then a target beyond.

So I found it easier myself to just trade to, from, and around my own targets.

While there ARE many, many other ways traders traders can trade the markets, and DO trade them.


No one easy solution to forex.
(And some hedge funds employ million dollar quants & physicists etc to assist them, and even then can still have a lousy year in the markets).
  • #557
  • Aug 19, 2021 5:26am Aug 19, 2021 5:26am
Nakamoto want me to think that the market is random, non linear and 1 minute chart is noise.
Greatest poker player on earth.... no words

if price IS FABRICATED and in ABSOLUTE CONTROL by Nakamoto, then the implication is simple that RANDOMNESS, NON-LINEARITY and NOISE is only effect and symtomp. They all created BY DESIGN and purpose based on one holy intent only : confuse, trap and kill.

Moddy Boot tell better : always kill all trader with one stone no matter what

biggest game to make believe
Neale Donald Walsch is right
Oh no ... i am getting phillosophical

and everyone will laugh at me and ask WHO ARE YOU .... BIG MOUTH ?
shut your mouth off

even my mouth is bastard, I'm PROUD that MR. G is the massanger.

Just for me
Lets ignore my post
forever
  • #558
  • Aug 19, 2021 6:55am Aug 19, 2021 6:55am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} First, market response to the FA's you referenced was exactly as would be expected by the market. These FA's were supportive of existing market structure, and fit, by and large, with market expectations. In short, nothing in these numbers changed market structure for any currency pairs. that is why PA in all pairs has remained within the confines and boundaries of structure (for example: in the E$, there is a propensity to buy dollars; in the $J, there is a propensity for price to range). Regarding the $J, recent PA remains within the boundaries...
Fed in taper mode. Today GU, EU as expected plunge.

My point in summation of all my posts is this expected taper stance has resulted in the technicals to turn south. If whatever retail TA and FA has not informed the trader of such a major event then what use are such retail forex analyses?

Yes, it did brush nerves, insulted the majority. However I chose to call a spade a spade. It is wrong on my part to do otherwise. Or be silent about it just to be politically correct on the forum. Forex market is not a happy place where all can be right at the same time. I can't endorse this notion.

Given the purpose of FF is more interested in the social side of forum and its wrong on me to meddle with this ecosystem, its timely that I focus on my project that when completed marks another milestone for me.

Good trading everyone.
Green pips to all.
BWilliam
Know what you trade
  • #559
  • Aug 19, 2021 7:24am Aug 19, 2021 7:24am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Fed in taper mode. Today GU, EU as expected plunge. My point in summation of all my posts is this expected taper stance has resulted in the technicals to turn south. If whatever retail TA and FA has not informed the trader of such a major event then what use are such retail forex analyses? Yes, it did brush nerves, insulted the majority. However I chose to call a spade a spade. It is wrong on my part to do otherwise. Or be silent about it just to be politically correct on the forum. Forex market is not a happy place where all can be right...
Nei
No leave US alone Mr. B
U promise give a insight and small clue here and there to teach US Fed watch analysis.

Hope you add a pointer
No hurry

Yes, FF forum is just for fun when we are boring with YouTube.

Happy peepz
  • #560
  • Aug 19, 2021 7:32am Aug 19, 2021 7:32am
Quick update on the EJ. Hit it's latest target at 127.93, where I exited two trades and left one open, with next target at 126.87, then 126.68. Trade well, everyone!
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