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Flying Dutchman

  • #481
  • Aug 13, 2021 7:31pm Aug 13, 2021 7:31pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi GEfx I was trading E$ last night and was watching the bankers load up long at 1.1795 for about 40 minutes so I expect a bullish week next week. Interesting when they closed for the week, it ended exactly at their accumulation area so perhaps a base they will work of next week. For E$ lovers like myself, it was a week to consider a bullish bias ahead is on the cards and a trading week where a holiday was more useful option than trading aggressively the small time frames like I do. Next week I expect fireworks with E$ so hold onto your...
Hi RickM,
I was involved with the G$ and E$ today. After yesterday, I was ready for a continuation to the down side in the G$, but it showed a clear sign of a reversal this morning and I got two buy trades in by 5:10 PST, and rode them until the end of my second to the last target. The E$ was exactly the same, in direction and timing. Two trades entered at the same time as the 2 G$ trades, and they ran up within 2 pips of my top target. The entries were at 4:10 and 5:10 am PST, so if you have any notes from your trading at that time I'd love to hear about what you saw then. And it is very interesting regarding your observations about their actions at the top of the moves.

I have a lot of chart work to do this weekend. I took a quick look at the G$ Day chart and I think a case could be made for that pair being in a big range, of course with room either direction. The E$ has me very intrigued right now, since it retraced to 50% of the last leg down, and now sits in a very interesting place. Hope to chat more this weekend.

As for the EJ, it has a little room to a bottom but where it goes from there is a question. Maybe I'll have a better view later this weekend.

Take care and have a good weekend!
  • #482
  • Aug 13, 2021 7:38pm Aug 13, 2021 7:38pm
Seems most manage to get in GU n EU
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #483
  • Aug 13, 2021 8:37pm Aug 13, 2021 8:37pm
Some Saturday morning thoughts with a cup of tea.

From an older, retired, ex-horseplayer, non-professional trader (ie I have separate income & I do not rely on forex for my livelihood).

I do trade every day though, specifically as day-trader (ie all positions closed before the daily rollover). And I don’t figure tomorrows price (yet).


So Saturday morning. Charts are now frozen till next Monday morning. And I love to have a look at them when I get up.

I also love to conceptualise what HAPPENED with market price movements while I slept. It helps me.


Is the FX market really made up of JUST someone buying here, and someone selling there.

Which naturally DOES happen, of course, else there is NO market movement.


But can there also be, conceptually, some “algo repeating levels” going on within our charts.


When level ranges are run, well it’s probably just a fluke , but they can often finish off (the week, or day),

near a 50% level between one of 2 levels (one level above & one below).

Or AT the levels themselves.


End of week EURUSD 4hr chart
.
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  • #484
  • Aug 13, 2021 8:42pm Aug 13, 2021 8:42pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote}
{image}
EURUSD also ran the levels on these charts some 5 months ago, back in March.

And also three years ago, back in 2018.


I went all the way back some 13 years, looking at them.

And they repeat.

My question was, are they …. by accident, by magic, or by design?


Is a trader at any advantage if the market happens ………………..,
by accident, ie randomly - (hardly)
by wizard-style magic - (no hope)

or by design - then yes, some hope for the trader there.

.
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  • #485
  • Aug 13, 2021 9:32pm Aug 13, 2021 9:32pm
Quoting BWilliam
With all this bearish sentiment since nfp, is there anybody who thinks the Gbpusd weekly candle is green?
At the start of the week I asked this question. Gbpusd close 6pips shy of a green candle. Friday price broke new low after PPI in early London market. Then the market woke up started surging upwards as if reaching for a green candle. The poor consumer sentiment numbers helped push it further.

Quoting BWilliam
{quote} EU has moved a small 60pips range since nfp. Could we see a green week candle?
Same question. Green candle close.

The point here is can the algo intent be set even before the fundamentals come into play? Even before RickM saw the futures volume data traded by the bankers?

I wrote both posts as proof that yes the algo intent for the week for a green candle close is already known. As always this is not a boast. This is imo the only way to show proof of algo manipulation in this Forex market. Fundies, bankers volume data is at market information. Algo manipulation is real whose purpose for the future is already set come what may. Perhaps this example may convince you a little about this invisible master algo driving the market.

Cheers, and have a good weekend.
Know what you trade
  • #486
  • Edited 3:54am Aug 14, 2021 2:12am | Edited 3:54am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} At the start of the week I asked this question. Gbpusd close 6pips shy of a green candle. Friday price broke new low after PPI in early London market. Then the market woke up started surging upwards as if reaching for a green candle. The poor consumer sentiment numbers helped push it further. {quote} Same question. Green candle close. The point here is can the algo intent be set even before the fundamentals come into play? Even before RickM saw the futures volume data traded by the bankers? I wrote both posts as proof that yes the algo intent...
Hi BW,
Thank you again. I think I have figured out your entries and predictions. If I understood correctly your way, exactly your way 1.40 is on the table next week and the construction is inversed V (obviously might be wrong, but that's ok). That was quiet interesting study whole day. I don't know how many assesments I have, but I can say that your help upgraded to next level my system. It was 5 now 6.
All the best,
Ihlas
  • #487
  • Aug 15, 2021 6:25am Aug 15, 2021 6:25am
What always repeated ?
What must repeated ?

Based his intent to make money

always wait in the end of river after target clean out, price filter agree and his pull the train

no if
no but
no may be
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  • #488
  • Aug 15, 2021 11:54am Aug 15, 2021 11:54am
Trading isn't that complicated, just draw a line, buy above sell bellow.

Here you go
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  • #489
  • Aug 15, 2021 11:57am Aug 15, 2021 11:57am
This is the way the AI works, the AI decide the way to go in certain areas, it's useless trying to figure out the way with absolute certainty.
  • #490
  • Aug 15, 2021 12:04pm Aug 15, 2021 12:04pm
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  • #491
  • Aug 15, 2021 12:22pm Aug 15, 2021 12:22pm
Quoting TimeTells
Some Saturday morning thoughts with a cup of tea. From an older, retired, ex-horseplayer, non-professional trader (ie I have separate income & I do not rely on forex for my livelihood). I do trade every day though, specifically as day-trader (ie all positions closed before the daily rollover). And I don’t figure tomorrows price (yet). So Saturday morning. Charts are now frozen till next Monday morning. And I love to have a look at them when I get up. I also love to conceptualise what HAPPENED with market price movements while I slept. It helps me....
There is buying and selling (not in CFDs), but it doesn't move the market, the AI has one single purpose which is to eat money in the most efficient way.
The AI intentions are clear, the target can some times be set for years, however in order to reach the target it can move in a very convoluted ways.

This is a target for GOLD, I can say with absolute certainty that it will be reached, but when or how it's very difficult to know.
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  • #492
  • Aug 15, 2021 1:49pm Aug 15, 2021 1:49pm
Just finishing up my weekend chart work, and thought I'd comment on my structure analysis this weekend. I am factoring in an increase in political risk related to the USD, given the debacle unfolding in Afghanistan. I would not be surprised by a spike, either way, in all USD pairs within the next 24 hours. The current situation is likely unplanned by bankers and not completely in the technicals as the week begins. Just something to think about.
  • #493
  • Aug 15, 2021 3:55pm Aug 15, 2021 3:55pm
Quoting raedmaa
{quote} There is buying and selling (not in CFDs), but it doesn't move the market, the AI has one single purpose which is to eat money in the most efficient way. The AI intentions are clear, the target can some times be set for years, however in order to reach the target it can move in a very convoluted ways. This is a target for GOLD, I can say with absolute certainty that it will be reached, but when or how it's very difficult to know. {image}
Exactly that.
  • #494
  • Aug 15, 2021 5:25pm Aug 15, 2021 5:25pm
Quoting raedmaa
{quote} There is buying and selling (not in CFDs), but it doesn't move the market, the AI has one single purpose which is to eat money in the most efficient way. The AI intentions are clear, the target can some times be set for years, however in order to reach the target it can move in a very convoluted ways. This is a target for GOLD, I can say with absolute certainty that it will be reached, but when or how it's very difficult to know. {image}
If you are going to play with the Vacuum Points, get it correct.
Firstly worry about the current one at 1776.25 which has been hit multiple times.
Your one is a bit lower at 1557.45 which is an extremely important Vacuum Point.

Algo?

Proof is its just Bankers Volume with help from their liquidity EA's that run to create expansion of price.
Build & controlled by Bankers for the sole reason to increase liquidity levels so they can trade.

No magic here and Volume shows us the naked truth.
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #495
  • Aug 15, 2021 6:21pm Aug 15, 2021 6:21pm
Quoting deanyakobs
What always repeated ?
What must repeated ?
Based his intent to make money always wait in the end of river after target clean out, price filter agree and his pull the train no if no but no may be {image}


Hi deanyakobs,


I must say well done, sir, for the time and effort you have put in to present an openly thought out chart process.

I can tell very clearly you have done this in good faith. For yourself & for others.


It also shows me you are actually looking at the process of a market. Rather than just putting up an MA here and MA there for example (which can work for some folks of course).


For any NEW trader embarking on the precarious journey within Forex I hope this is the type of effort they might make, at some point, on their own, to explain to themselves how a market and its participants might operate.


And from that initial chart ‘look’ of yours, Dean, a NEW trader might well then decide this is NOT the game for them.

Or they might say ‘okay’ there is far more to this business than just our industry taught beginnings.


Beginnings, such as things like memorising some 1 hour candlestick patterns for example.

(as Steve Nison himself wrote, after SPEAKING personally to the Japanese, that ALL the candle patterns they developed - ages ago - were based solely on the DAILY CANDLE.

And in fact they said to Steve that the Daily candle patterns they employed were then BEST interpreted in groupings of a few days - ie NOT just one single Daily candle - and certainly NOT a single 1hr candle.

The west then took that knowledge and thought to employ it on lower timeframes).



So what a journey lies ahead for any new trader.

Well done Dean, imho, with what you have done on your chart. That being some hard thought about "market processes".
  • #496
  • Aug 15, 2021 11:16pm Aug 15, 2021 11:16pm
Hope everyone is enjoying the trading to start the week. EJ continues moving down and is closing in on it's next target. I'd recommend EA as well, at least so far tonight. GA as well. Good trading!
  • #497
  • Aug 16, 2021 12:32am Aug 16, 2021 12:32am
Quoting GEfx
Hope everyone is enjoying the trading to start the week. EJ continues moving down and is closing in on it's next target. I'd recommend EA as well, at least so far tonight. GA as well. Good trading!
Yep, someone with influence has farted somewhere.
Or should that be flatulence.
  • #498
  • Aug 16, 2021 12:38am Aug 16, 2021 12:38am
Quoting raedmaa
{quote} There is buying and selling (not in CFDs), but it doesn't move the market, the AI has one single purpose which is to eat money in the most efficient way.
The AI intentions are clear, the target can some times be set for years,
however in order to reach the target it can move in a very convoluted ways.
This is a target for GOLD, I can say with absolute certainty that it will be reached, but when or how it's very difficult to know. {image}

Hi raed,

Yes what you say, is what I am finding.

It has been an interesting 3 month search for me.


With ½ an hour to go to Franky open, I snuck in quick for some scraps off what I choose to call the algo repeating level.

A quick 6p only, I will now try and do similar again later (7-10p), no guarantees, maybe twice more today if the opportunity presents .

We all trade differently, and for our own reasons.

I've put up the levels for USDJPY today.

And don't start me on this pair lol. If I was pushed hard I would say outright that I don't even think it is a cross-pair lol.
I look at it as a single currency - based on its movements apart from the other USD crosses.
Or it is purely a JPY organised chart, done by a single entity (algo or not ).


the 4hr open chart with the closest three levels to current price observed over the past 10 years of data.
then my quick trade from the 5m closed at one of george's swing target ideas.

.
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  • #499
  • Aug 16, 2021 1:46am Aug 16, 2021 1:46am
12p so far today. More available? Who knows, I don't.

Price can go either above or below the algo levels. And I have not got intent sorted.


I will have a look in again, after the London hour finishes, and see if there is some confirmed directional momentum observable.

all the best to all

.
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  • #500
  • Edited 6:32am Aug 16, 2021 5:27am | Edited 6:32am
Dean’s interesting chart above (post #487) started me thinking again about a PDF I read years ago.

As can happen when I read (speed), something can maybe stick in my mind.


In examining price movement behaviour outside of our simple commonplace thoughts of,

“Is price going up or down, (or where is my MA positioned etc).”

The author wrote, and I did jot something down at the time (apologies for any errors/adjustments on my part).


1. Because a trader can’t control price, either for themselves or against themselves, it follows that
they usually decide to do something based largely on what they think price means to them personally
(and NOT necessarily what the larger market process could be showing them).


2. And as the game of FX plays out, ironically it's the movement of price AFTER US that creates any profit or loss, for us.


3. This means that SOMEONE ELSE (or something else, lol)actually determines if we win or lose, and not us.


4. 100% of all analysis, no matter what it is or how it is done, should then probably be done attempting to find a price entry point at where & when order flow should begin to move (ie a price change).


5. And the only real confirmation we will ever get, that we were on the right sideof the future order-flow movement, is an OPEN TRADE GAIN, nothing else.


6. This whole TA analysis thing is quite seductive and intoxicating because it promises unlimited wealth once we finally figure it out. While, any profits earned may be naively deemed to validate TA, or other price analysis methods.

When really, on deeper examination, the only thing that we did as traders - was get in on the right side of the price movement. Which was determined after we traded, and therefore by OTHER traders lol (whoever they might be).


7. Ranging.
When orders all pile up at one particular time/price relationship, we have what the author called a compression, candles in a tight RANGE where a change to order flow & price movement is …

INEVITABLE.
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