Disliked{quote} I wasn't stuck in a range. For an Algo trader there is only the start of the cycle and the end, no range, no trend. The illusion of a range or trend, that's for the 95%. For a trader using fundamental analysis or supply and demand, welcome to the washing machine. I'll take a punt as predictions are lacking on Forex Factory. And if I'm wrong, then Money Management comes into play! {image}Ignored
The algo math of intention is about the intention of the present state in respect of this space and time at algo level. If current price is in the state of "noise" meaning anywhere other then at algo level then there's no way to know intention. Anything is possible, therefore no prediction is possible.
However, when price has moved to algo levels then the algo math can reveal clearly the intention. At this space and time, future intention can be predicted accurately. The future target can be predicted as well but the reliability compared to the present carries lower probability in a space and time that's faraway from the present.
When we breakdown price into various time frames we get levels of smaller time frames within this current time frame of interest. In your example, your 1hr time frame of interest has smaller levels in 15m and 5m timeframes with their respective levels. Each of this micro levels carry their own algo intention. The sum total of macro and micro level algo intention in a cascading fashion contribute to the overall algo intention during the journey towards the macro target. This is the concept of prediction with algo math.
Therefore, what is "noise" to the traders is actually algo intention at the micro level compared to his timeframe of interest. I have not ventured below 1m time frame, therefore given the available data its "noise" to me.
Given the algo math is a time series model therefore future intention can be predicted with reliable accuracy as well.
Therefore, to ME, directional Forex speculation in retail trading is simply guessing when the strategy does not have an objectively quantified basis to it. An objectively quantified approach does not mean 100% accurate. However, it give the probabilistic advantage taking advantage of math to mitigate the inherent risk of directional speculation. This is the real meaning of risk management in Forex trading. (Don't mistakenly misinterprete risk management to mean the same as money management. Both are not the same thing.)
Conclusion, the trader can only trade with true edge when he exercise risk management as described above taking advantage of cascading probability in his trading strategy. This is MY personal view about retail Forex trading. Being a retired chartered accountant administrating compliance as a career, I have an ingrained risk averse stance to directional speculation. Aside from incorporating some form of risk management procedures in the trading strategy, retail Forex trading is simply gambling to ME. Tbh I did not build this math model which is outside my scope. I had available resources for this purpose.
Know what you trade
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), a better, or their own best, chance in the end.
regards bilal {image}
Cheers BW. I'm out for a few of hours now as the Prelims have started already leading up to a ripper UFC Main Event between the Brutal Outright Violence from the streets of Texas, Derek (the "Black Beast" - his own word-title, not mine) and the absolutely Ultra Talented & Skilled ex kick-boxer from France, Ciryl (his spelling, not mine lol). Mixed martial arts - the BEST matchups are always - skill vs violence, in boxing parlance we used to say Boxer vs Puncher and NO predictions please, unnecessary, just sit back and enjoy the...
) we needed to see Derek land a few really big shots.
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