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Attachments: Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses
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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #1,301
  • Jul 25, 2021 3:36pm Jul 25, 2021 3:36pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market is bearish. On the monthly time frame, a bullish candlestick took market operation to the 1.22720 horizontal resistance area (red) but could not break above it. From the area, a bearish candlestick was printed in June that broke below the low of the bullish candlestick printed in May, showing a bearish rejection of the area. Meanwhile, the interim market operation in July is bearish and below the low of the June bearish candlestick. Market operation is presently tackling the 1.17160 horizontal support area (green).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Market operation on the weekly time frame is bearish but it is approaching a horizontal support at the 1.17160 area (green) seen on the monthly time frame. We may see further bearish move in the early part of this week, but it will take a significant breakdown of the 1.16100 handle (blue) before we can have confidence in a sustained bearish drive.

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Price action on the daily time frame is technically bearish but there is a decrease in bearish momentum as it approaches the 1.17160 horizontal support area (green). We may see some sideways or pullback of price action in the area in the early part of this week, but bears will likely restore their influence in the market after such reaction.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily_July 25, 2021.png Size: 53 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,302
  • Jul 25, 2021 3:45pm Jul 25, 2021 3:45pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market is under increased bearish pressure after the bearish print in June mitigated the bullish print of equivalent size in May, rejecting the horizontal resistance at the 1.42490 area (red). Presently, the interim market operation in July is printing bearish below the low of the June bearish print.

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Market operation on the weekly time frame is impulsively bearish after the relatively big bearish print of six weeks ago. Last week’s bearish print dropped below an area of consolidation that was in place for four weeks but there was a bullish pullback, resulting in the printing of a long-tailed doji-like candlestick. Technically, we would see further bearish attempt this week to restore the southward impulsive move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDWeekly_July 25, 2021.png Size: 46 KB


Price action on the daily time frame is in a falling channel (blue). Presently, it is at the channel resistance trendline where a bearish candlestick was printed on Friday. Much of the recent technical impulsive move is bearish and we can expect this to continue this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily_July 25, 2021.png Size: 51 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,303
  • Jul 31, 2021 2:31pm Jul 31, 2021 2:31pm
Just a Reflection

This week's market operation. particularly on the majors, was dominated by fundamentals. However, htf technical reaction levels or zones (particularly on W1) held. This points to the need for scenario analysis and trading; that is, analyzing probabilities on both the bullish and bearish sides of the market, and then wait for confirmatory signals, particularly on an htf higher than our entry htf.

Trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,304
  • Aug 1, 2021 3:25am Aug 1, 2021 3:25am
It also points to the importance of mapping and being aware of the immediate technical reaction zones (e.g. on W1 or D1 tf) above and below (supply/demand or resistance/support) current location of price action.

Trade safe.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
Just a Reflection This week's market operation. particularly on the majors, was dominated by fundamentals. However, htf technical reaction levels or zones (particularly on W1) held. This points to the need for scenario analysis and trading; that is, analyzing probabilities on both the bullish and bearish sides of the market, and then wait for confirmatory signals, particularly on an htf higher than our entry htf. Trade safe. KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,305
  • Aug 1, 2021 2:32pm Aug 1, 2021 2:32pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

XAUUSD market operation got a bullish nudge with the printing of a bullish candlestick in July that rejected the horizontal support at the 1767.30 area. This situation arose after a sideway operation that was in place between May and June – the June bearish print having mitigated the May bullish print. Meanwhile, the 1767.30/1743.60 area (green) is the prevailing horizontal support on the monthly time frame, while the 1911.80 area is horizontal resistance.

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Market operation on the weekly time frame is in a sideways mode just above the 1767.30/1743.60 horizontal support area (green) seen on the monthly time frame after the northward retracement of the bearish swing of six weeks ago. This is a pause in the market, and we should await a follow-through directional momentum after a breakout from the area.

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On the daily time frame, price action went into consolidation after a 50 Fib retracement of the 1902.90/1750.50 downward swing. On Friday, it printed a bearish candlestick from the area, giving bears an opening to push for a southward turnaround. This may initially lead to a retest of the 1792.40/1786.90 minor horizontal support area (purple). Should bears succeed in this, they may push for a retest of the 1767.30/1743.60 major horizontal support area (green) seen on the monthly time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDDaily_August 1, 2021.png Size: 53 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,306
  • Aug 1, 2021 2:50pm Aug 1, 2021 2:50pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

Although, the technical structure of the USDCAD is bearish, its market operation is presently in a bullish mode. On the monthly time frame, there was a bullish rejection of the 1.20300 multi-year horizontal support (green) in June. However, there was a limited bullish follow-through in July, resulting in the printing of a long-upper shadow doji. This indicates that bears are still influential in the market.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the weekly time frame, the technical structure is bearish. In the last three weeks, an evening star pattern was formed at the 1.26300/1.25000 supply zone (red). Technically, we may see a bearish continuation thereafter.

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The 1.23020/1.28080 (blue) is the prevailing trading range on the daily time frame. Price action is bearish within the range but presently in a sideway mode. We may see a bearish continuation to the 1.23020 area. Nevertheless, unless the area is broken down significantly on a daily closing basis, bulls may force a northward turnaround. Alternatively, any bullish reaction for further northward move may be a pullback to retest an area of value before a bearish turnaround. It will take a significant bullish breakout of the 1.28080 area on a daily closing basis before we can have confidence in a bullish directional control.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily_August 1, 2021.png Size: 43 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,307
  • Aug 1, 2021 3:21pm Aug 1, 2021 3:21pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market still has a bullish technical structure even though it is under increased bearish pressure. On the monthly time frame, the candlestick printed in June was strongly bearish and broke far below the bullish print of May having rejected the prevailing horizontal resistance around 1.22720 (red). However, there was no significant bearish follow-up in July as the market operation was primarily sideways leading to the printing of doji-like candlestick with a bullish tinge. Meanwhile, although market operation surged towards the horizontal support around 1.17160 (green), it failed to breach it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Although market operation on the weekly time frame is in a bullish mode, the prevailing technical impulse is bearish. Last week, market operation printed a bullish candlestick that retested an area of consolidation that was broken down three weeks ago. From within the area, market operation experienced a bearish opposition, leading to the printing of a bullish candlestick with an upper shadow. The consolidation area, which is at the 1.18600/1.19320 zone (magenta), should be watched this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The daily time fame shows a bearish technical structure. But presently price action is sideways after a bullish retracement into, and retesting of, the broken down 1.18600/1.19320 previous horizontal support area (magenta). Friday’s price action produced an ambivalent candlestick with a bearish tinge in the area. It will take a significant bearish breakdown of the area before we can have confidence in a southward continuation, realizing that the next significant horizontal support is around the 1.17160 area (green). Any bearish misstep may incentivize bulls to engineer liquidity grab northwards of the 1.18600/1.19320 previous horizontal support area (magenta) before a bearish turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily_August 1, 2021.png Size: 53 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,308
  • Aug 1, 2021 3:26pm Aug 1, 2021 3:26pm
Looking forward to seeing your cable analysis KP
find a way to make money in your sleep or you work until you die
  • #1,309
  • Aug 1, 2021 3:32pm Aug 1, 2021 3:32pm
Thanks for the encouragement, mate.

KP

Quoting pipbasket
Looking forward to seeing your cable analysis KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,310
  • Aug 1, 2021 3:35pm Aug 1, 2021 3:35pm
Am i on the right track here with my chart analysis KP? I see this as being bearish this week,
Many thanks, PB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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find a way to make money in your sleep or you work until you die
  • #1,311
  • Aug 1, 2021 3:38pm Aug 1, 2021 3:38pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market is sideways. On the monthly time frame, market operation produced a bullish print in May which was effectively negated by the bearish print of June. But the July market operation produced a doji-like candlestick with a bullish tinge. Although the environment presently favours bulls, bears are still in contention.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDMonthly_August 1, 2021.png Size: 39 KB


Market operation on the weekly time frame is bullish after the bullish print of last week that pulled back into the broken-down horizontal consolidation channel at the 1.37600/1.39300 zone (purple). Although the bullish print surged above the zone, it closed just within the zone, indicating that bears are still influential in the market. Technically, the relatively big bearish candlestick printed seven weeks ago is still operating as a ‘master candlestick.’ This technically gives bears the potential to sbe influential in market operation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, on Thursday, price action completed a 61.8 Fib retracement of the 1.41850/1.35700 downward swing. There was a bearish print on Friday, which is potentially a signal that bears would contend for market influence, and this may lead to a southward continuation. What price action does on Monday should be watched.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily_August 1, 2021.png Size: 52 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,312
  • Aug 1, 2021 3:55pm Aug 1, 2021 3:55pm
A follow on from Keenpips invaluable analysis,
I see a retest of broken support, then a drop towards the blue highlighted area, would be advisable to trail your sl in this area and lock in profits, enter trades on smaller tf to confirm entry, react to pa and if we break 1.39300 the analysis is invalid.
As Keenpips says, take this analysis as a basis for your own trade idea, as i may be wrong, trade safe. PB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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find a way to make money in your sleep or you work until you die
  • #1,313
  • Aug 1, 2021 4:31pm Aug 1, 2021 4:31pm
As you are already on the D1 tf, look at the current trading range. Look left for the last impulsive move, whether up or down. In this case, the last impulsive move that created the trading range is bullish, that is, from 1.17033 on March 31 to 1.22656 on May 25. That is the current trading range: 1.17033/1.22656. However, the present location of price action within the range is far below the 50% of the range, and thus technically bearish. But you need to wait for a bearish momentum or price action. You may wait for a northward pullback first. You should not be trading it unless you see a strong bearish signal at a lower time frame within a daily resistance zone or supply zone. Of course, it depends on how you trade. A scalper would not mind a few pips southward but more reliable R:R has to come from a bearish rejection of a supply or resistance zone. I am a swing trader, and I look for a feasible R:R trade at a significant technical reaction (support/resistance, demand/supply) zone. on at least the D1 tf.

Sorry for writing a treatise!

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting pipbasket
Am i on the right track here with my chart analysis KP? I see this as being bearish this week, Many thanks, PB {image}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,314
  • Aug 1, 2021 6:05pm Aug 1, 2021 6:05pm
nice analysis im very new and will just add my 2 cents.. the indicators and EA is in the attachments Happy Trading! Feedback is always encouraged

(And by the way what are the requirements to open my own thread it shows ima a junior member)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a60163a885481a79c1a7a741ffcf5580.png Size: 367 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 SLI+QQE ZLC.ex4   27 KB | 315 downloads
File Type: ex4 QQE averages histo + alerts + arrows.ex4   109 KB | 337 downloads
File Type: mq4 QQE averages histo + alerts + arrows.mq4   34 KB | 312 downloads
File Type: ex4 QQE_averages_histo__alerts__arrows.ex4   109 KB | 345 downloads
File Type: mq4 QQE_averages_histo__alerts__arrows.mq4   34 KB | 292 downloads
File Type: ex4 Stoploss_Index.ex4   13 KB | 311 downloads
File Type: ex4 TVI_Builder_MT4_4_5.ex4   34 KB | 373 downloads
File Type: ex4 ATR_in_Pips.ex4   9 KB | 322 downloads
File Type: mq4 ATR_in_Pips.mq4   3 KB | 317 downloads
SKQT - Super Kool Quant Trader
Daily Remy All Time Return: 5.6%
  • #1,315
  • Aug 1, 2021 11:18pm Aug 1, 2021 11:18pm
Thank you for contributing. However, the post belongs better to a 'Trading system' thread. Contributors to this thread should follow the guideline given on post #1.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Quoting Erpthetrader
nice analysis im very new and will just add my 2 cents.. the indicators and EA is in the attachments Happy Trading! Feedback is always encouraged (And by the way what are the requirements to open my own thread it shows ima a junior member) {image} {file} {file} {file} {file} {file} {file} {file} {file} {file}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,316
  • Aug 2, 2021 1:20am Aug 2, 2021 1:20am
Quoting KeenPips
Thank you for contributing. However, the post belongs better to a 'Trading system' thread. Contributors to this thread should follow the guideline given on post #1. Trade safe and prosper. KP {quote}
ok sorry about that
SKQT - Super Kool Quant Trader
Daily Remy All Time Return: 5.6%
  • #1,317
  • Aug 2, 2021 9:55am Aug 2, 2021 9:55am
If you are tracking GBPUSD this week, take a look at the W1 tf. The bullish pinbar (i.e. the long-tailed candlestick with bearish tinge) printed three weeks ago has virtually played out and except for any bullish surge for a northward liquidity grab, the next technical phase will be southward to fill up the long tail. But it is advisable to wait for Monday close unless you love scalping.

Trade safe and prosper.

Kl

Quoting KeenPips
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The GBPUSD market is sideways. On the monthly time frame, market operation produced a bullish print in May which was effectively negated by the bearish print of June. But the July market operation produced a doji-like candlestick with a bullish tinge. Although the environment presently favours bulls, bears are still in contention. {image} Market operation on the weekly time frame is bullish after the bullish print of last week that pulled back into the broken-down horizontal consolidation channel at the 1.37600/1.39300...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,318
  • Aug 7, 2021 4:56pm Aug 7, 2021 4:56pm
The XAUUSD market is technically under increased bearish pressure and I expect it to be so this week. I will post my technical outlook on this and three other pairs before the market opens.

Stay safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,319
  • Aug 8, 2021 2:33pm Aug 8, 2021 2:33pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market is under a bearish pressure. On the monthly time frame, a bullish inside bar formation was printed in July under the influence of a relatively big bearish candlestick which was printed in June. Meanwhile, market operation is at the 1750.00 horizontal support area (purple). This is about 250 pips from the 1730.00/1704.00 demand zone (green).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Market operation on the weekly time frame is technically under a bearish impulse. Market operation retested the 1879.00/1901.30 supply zone (red) 11 weeks ago before it was rejected southwards. There was a strong bearish drive eight weeks ago before a bullish retracement. However, the relatively big bearish candlestick printed last week erased the bullish retracing candlesticks of more than five weeks. This indicates that bears are more influential in the market. We may expect bearish continuation for a retest of the 1730.00/1704.00 demand zone (green) seen on the monthly time frame. But, first, the nearby technical reaction area around 1739.00 will need be broken down by bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The order flow context and prevailing market impulse on the daily time frame favour bears more than bulls.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDDaily_August 8, 2021.png Size: 49 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,320
  • Aug 8, 2021 2:51pm Aug 8, 2021 2:51pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

On the monthly time frame, the USDCAD technical structure turned bearish in May after a breakdown of the 1.22800 area (green). But, meanwhile, market operation is in a bullish retracing mode after a relatively big bullish pullback broke above the broken-down 1.22800 area in June. In July, a doji-like candlestick with a long upper tail was printed, which indicates that bears are still in contention for market influence.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADMonthly_August 8, 2021.png Size: 45 KB


On the weekly time frame, market operation retested the 1.27060/1.28730 supply zone (red) three weeks ago and rejected it with a bearish pinbar. Meanwhile, market operation is sideways, with the last print being bullish. We may see a bullish retracement but the technical structure favours bears more than bulls. Thus, any bullish move is likely to be temporary in nature.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADWeekly_August 8, 2021.png Size: 42 KB


Price action on the daily time frame is presently in a bullish mode even though the technical market structure is bearish. On July 19, price action retested the 1.27060/1.28730 supply zone (red), and a horizontal resistance zone, seen on the weekly time frame. It met with a bearish rejection, leading to the breakdown of a rising trendline (blue) on July 29. Meanwhile, price action is in a bullish mode and will likely retest the rising trendline and, probably, even the 1.27060/1.28730 horizontal resistance zone before any bearish turnaround. Nevertheless, we should not rule out the probability of bears seizing on any bullish weakness or misstep for a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily_August 8, 2021.png Size: 46 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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