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Flying Dutchman

  • #201
  • Aug 1, 2021 9:33pm Aug 1, 2021 9:33pm
Quoting RickM
{quote}
Hi Timetells EURUSD is my primary trading market I trade so let’s for fun post a few charts this week to see if we can spot some unusual activity occurring this week.

The no spread cost of trading this pair makes trading Liquidity imbalances a very profitable venture for me.

The issue is always volume and activity.
Will they offer us enough activity and price expansion to be able to profit tonight.
I have my targets already marked and waiting for London open.
Lets see how it plays out. Cheers


Cheers Rick,

I always enjoy viewing your charts and look forward to what you can show us this week.

Yes the lowest spread of all the pairs does make EU the attractive option, when trading/scalping "in the phone booth" as both you & I do
(you more so from what I have read about how you trade).


Kev (Bluey) just PMd then reminding me that all spread numbers are actually variable and what might look locked as a zero spread can in fact incur some spread costs.


I have shown my marked targets for the week ahead, but i dont (necessarily) trade AT those targets. I will look for trades towards to targets (either hi or lo) and do that as market movement transpires.


EU I do imagine will range this week (I CAN be very wrong tho lol, its not a tip that I am making) aand if so gives scalpers playing reversals from the peaks & troughs some nice potential opportunities.

If EU price drives higher or lower than one of my targets early in the week, I will re-assess my initial thoughts.


I actually trade as price shows me a NOW directional confirmation, so its a bit like opening a wrapped chrissy present for me - I do not know what is inside yet or which way price will move

all the best pal
Pete
  • #202
  • Aug 1, 2021 10:00pm Aug 1, 2021 10:00pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Cheers Rick, I always enjoy viewing your charts and look forward to what you can show us this week. Yes the lowest spread of all the pairs does make EU the attractive option, when trading/scalping "in the phone booth" as both you & I do (you more so from what I have read about how you trade). Kev (Bluey) just PMd then reminding me that all spread numbers are actually variable and what might look locked as a zero spread can in fact incur some spread costs. I have shown my marked targets for the week ahead, but i dont (necessarily) trade AT...

Well their is fixed spread brokers and accounts for course.... But for ex IC markets advertises "FROM zero spreads". Which is actually quite misleading.
IC can actually be not so cheap.. the E/U for ex can be easily .7-.95 a far cry from zero.
How and why... Well commission is the obvious and the next is of your trading of any size into full contracts... DOM.... Why would I pay more the larger I trade....anyways that's a whole nother topic.. but suffice it to say trading costs are a real issue especially when you trade frequently and of larger size...

It's like going to the store and buying 1 steak....at $20 each... And if I want to buy 10 steaks then I have to pay $25 ea... Thats the net effect of DOM with IC as an example...

Far better choices out their to keep thousands in your pocket rather than the broker...they are already flush enough without playing marketing games as they do..


I'm not looking to get into a discussion on brokers and spreads ..pm me if you like... And I will do my best to reply... But of your doing this as a FT gig
Variable spread is not the way to go..there are better brokers than IC. Far better...

Cheers
Blue 3.0
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #203
  • Aug 1, 2021 10:07pm Aug 1, 2021 10:07pm
I forgot to mention.... Trading is a business...
Why would one choose to have "variable" costs when you can have fixed costs... I'm not against IC per se...but trading their variable accounts with large contracts your paying way too much..

I want to trade thru volatility with fixed costs...and yes of course with little slippage and instant fills...

Ok that's all for me

Cheers to all and I hope you all trade well and are prosperous..
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #204
  • Edited 11:32pm Aug 1, 2021 11:07pm | Edited 11:32pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Hey BW It takes gonads to place up a live trade call, but to predict future price levels, that takes it to a new level. I can be reasonably clear as to when a new swing cycle has started, I can look at previous set targets by the Algo, but timing of when the targets are hit, that for me is where the real mathematics come into play. If you have cracked the timing element, that would be the holy grail but in any case, placing live calls, kudos to you. I know other traders such as Rick , Pete (Time Tells) etc are also very adept at trading...
Hi Andy, I have to say this BUT I don't want it to sound like a bragging claim.

Many years ago I was into trading with the same mindset like everyone else. Then one day something struck me hard in the face that woke me up. Look at the BTCUSD chart for Sunday again. The market moved to a high of 41619 then plunged to 39230 low giving a 2400pips move. Now here's the thing, if whatever method the trader use can't tell this huge 2400pips move then whatever method that's used is simply useless garbage. That similar day more than a decade ago I told myself when all the bs TA and FA analysis can't tell such a significant move I have nothing but useless garbage on my chart. This realisation changed the course of my journey in trading, any tradable asset, any timeframe. No excuse.

I got rid of every tool, every idea. Started with a clean slate to launch a 8 year research from ground zero.

This market together with all the other assets traded is more predictable than what people understand. Even down to the 1m tf which I showed this Sunday. Look carefully at the chart I posted again. BTCUSD has a huge spread yet I dare call the exact turning point with algo math. Volume, liquidity, volatility will have only limited effect on this algo math - the evidence I posted shows that. Making 1m tf call on BTCUSD is the best evidence I can give.

I have no intention to brag. Just look at TODAYs chart then use whatever analysis method to see if the trader can tell where this market is moving today. If it can't then the method is useless garbage. This was the game changer for me.

Lastly, I have mentioned this many, many times I don't use any magic or paid indicators. None.

I use simple tools. The difference lies in the understanding of what the tool tells us. Whatever is written on this forum is completely wrong. That's the problem. The simple tools are good and useful BUT they're used the wrong way. Completely wrong.

I can only say wake up to the reality in front of you people.

Cheers
J
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  • #205
  • Aug 1, 2021 11:53pm Aug 1, 2021 11:53pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} if the fundamentals support a move to square up the May 5 sharp move, which structurally is very valid at this time. That's how I prepare for the next few months.
Hi Gefx

What specific data you watch out to determine fundamentals (may be CPI, interest rates, GDP) and how to determine who is in control/stronger. Just for my learning on this subject. if in this case we can pick an example too it will become more illustrative for my understanding.

Thank you.
bilal
"Exchange of hands"
  • #206
  • Aug 1, 2021 11:59pm Aug 1, 2021 11:59pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Andy, I have to say this BUT I don't want it to sound like a bragging claim. Many years ago I was into trading with the same mindset like everyone else. Then one day something struck me hard in the face that woke me up. Look at the BTCUSD chart for Sunday again. The market moved to a high of 41619 then plunged to 39230 low giving a 2400pips move. Now here's the thing, if whatever method the trader use can't tell this huge 2400pips move then whatever method that's used is simply useless garbage. That similar day more than a decade ago...

Good Evening BW....

I must say you sound like George .. Yes I know your not George... But if I had a dollar for everytime George said "people need to wake up to the reality in front of them" and of course Useless indicators!! which many "lazy traders" had a problem with... meaning that they are useless when used the wrong way and your correct.. All i have seen on this forum is mmmm not up to snuff.

Anyways well said BW..and i shall pull up a BTC chart and have a gander..youve peaked my curiosity.

All the best to you Sir.
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #207
  • Edited 10:36pm Aug 2, 2021 12:44am | Edited 10:36pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} The simple tools are good and useful BUT they're used the wrong way. Completely wrong. I can only say wake up to the reality in front of you people. Cheers J {image} {image}
Hi BWilliam

The more i am waiting the chart from Kev, similarly i am anxious about your understanding and how you use the tools, can you explain more on this on chart please.

thought i do have my own answers but its good to see things from others point of view.

regards
bilal
"Exchange of hands"
  • #208
  • Aug 2, 2021 1:19am Aug 2, 2021 1:19am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Andy, I have to say this BUT I don't want it to sound like a bragging claim. Many years ago I was into trading with the same mindset like everyone else. Then one day something struck me hard in the face that woke me up. Look at the BTCUSD chart for Sunday again. The market moved to a high of 41619 then plunged to 39230 low giving a 2400pips move. Now here's the thing, if whatever method the trader use can't tell this huge 2400pips move then whatever method that's used is simply useless garbage. That similar day more than a decade ago...

Hi BW

Once again, thanks for taking the time.
I'm pretty certain I know where you're obtaining the figures from.
For obvious reasons I know why you are fairly cryptic in your posts, as stated many times, there is no free lunch.
If your posts move traders away from believing the voodoo or at least get them thinking outside of the box then that can only be a good thing.
Cheers
Andy
  • #209
  • Aug 2, 2021 1:20am Aug 2, 2021 1:20am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Good Evening BW.... I must say you sound like George .. Yes I know your not George... But if I had a dollar for everytime George said "people need to wake up to the reality in front of them" and of course Useless indicators!! which many "lazy traders" had a problem with... meaning that they are useless when used the wrong way and your correct.. All i have seen on this forum is mmmm not up to snuff. Anyways well said BW..and i shall pull up a BTC chart and have a gander..youve peaked my curiosity. All the best to you Sir.
Kev you lazy fluff chucker, are you out of prison now?
How was the food??
  • #210
  • Aug 2, 2021 11:27am Aug 2, 2021 11:27am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi BWilliam The more i am waiting the chart from Kev, similarly i am anxious about your understanding and how you use the tools, can you explain more on this on chart please. regards bilal
Hi bilal,

Regarding fundamentals, I have a trading journal dedicated to this topic. It includes daily notes on FA and the progress of FA on various pairs, and a spreadsheet with a comparative analysis of FA among countries. I track expectations/targets and actual announced results on GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, production and services levels, debt/surplus levels, political developments, and 10 year yields. This is the input to my personal value modes for each country/currency area, which is a very loose and high-level model that estimates growth and several risk levels. I started building this model in 1984, have made changes to it on a semi-regular schedule, and started using it for currency trading when I started in 2004. The basic assumption is that value and money flow to areas of growth and risk stability. This forms the foundation of structure analysis. For example, my model has value flowing out of such places as the EU and AU, and into CAD, the USA, and Switzerland. It has risk increasing in China, Japan, and the US. It has GB holding its own against nearly everyone, at least for now. The tricky thing with this kind of analysis is to pull it into an analysis for the next few weeks.

Hope that helps.
  • #211
  • Aug 2, 2021 9:56pm Aug 2, 2021 9:56pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Hi bilal, Regarding fundamentals, I have a trading journal dedicated to this topic. It includes daily notes on FA and the progress of FA on various pairs, and a spreadsheet with a comparative analysis of FA among countries. I track expectations/targets and actual announced results on GDP, inflation, employment, retail sales, production and services levels, debt/surplus levels, political developments, and 10 year yields. This is the input to my personal value modes for each country/currency area, which is a very loose and high-level model...
Hi GEfx

that's alot of information to track, compare, and conclude. i had overviewed Anton kriel course where he has explained and noted fundamentals using alot of excel files but i didnt give much time to it.

Thanks for sharing.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #212
  • Aug 3, 2021 7:09pm Aug 3, 2021 7:09pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote}
The tricky thing with this kind of analysis is to pull it into an analysis for the next few weeks. Hope that helps.


Good points GEfx,


There is clearly something driving this market.

CLEARLY.

I have mentioned earlier this something does not matter so much to me, well any more.


For example,

Is the market driver, a

Singularity (master algo)
A Group/Cabal (and are they a disparate group)
Sum total of every trader, CB, institution, hedge fund etc trading inside of a true & fair Auction Market


And how to trade it. How to analyse for the next week, the next session, the next hour etc.


Well there are 10,000 threads on FF of systems and templates and methods on how to do this.

Maybe they (will) all work, AND fail, around 50% of the time.


So what can any new trader do? (rhetorical again, sorry)
  • #213
  • Aug 3, 2021 7:11pm Aug 3, 2021 7:11pm
Many traders have given their viewpoints on when & where to push the buy/sell button.



So here, based on a (very, lol) loose analogy.


A car (the market) is rolling down a hill.

(It’s not a buy or sell type analogy, just a market movement analogy).


But the car is NOT rolling just yet. It has the handbrake on.

While the handbrake is ABOUT to be released (by someone, something, or maybe by pure luck).


Cars rarely roll UP hill lol, so this following analogy is just regarding a movement (not any up or down price direction).
  • #214
  • Aug 3, 2021 7:11pm Aug 3, 2021 7:11pm
One trader might get a phone call in advance from someone at the scene telling him that the handbrake has now been released. Great info.

And they trade based on that information received (from the 3rd party) that the car is imminently about to roll downhill.
  • #215
  • Aug 3, 2021 7:12pm Aug 3, 2021 7:12pm
Another trader might say there obviously IS a master algo (or universal physics in the car’s case),

which determines that a car, with its handbrake released, MUST roll down the hill.

And any random path the car takes is irrelevant because the physics says the car WILL roll downhill, period.

And they trade based on the physics (or algo) that the car MUST now roll downhill. To somewhere.
  • #216
  • Aug 3, 2021 7:13pm Aug 3, 2021 7:13pm
And another trader might not have any (3rd) person ringing on the phone to say the handbrake is now released.

That same trader may not know the physics, or the algo, which says the car WILL roll.


So they trade from maybe a few houses downhill of the car and just wait till the car is actually in motion.


Accepting that any physics/algo would also determine that the car MUST now roll to somewhere.


They trade AFTER the car PASSES THEM (with its handbrake released, so it's motored now by physics-algo)

and they then enter a trade with the CAR IN MOTION.


And hopefully get out for some profit, shortly afterwards.
  • #217
  • Aug 3, 2021 7:13pm Aug 3, 2021 7:13pm
Who is the MOST right, or correct, doesn’t really matter so much, in the end. Well to me, that is.

Just be careful and always do your due diligence at all times.


All the best for the pre-NFP movement (or nil movement) and the post movement also.
  • #218
  • Aug 3, 2021 7:20pm Aug 3, 2021 7:20pm
Quoting TimeTells
Who is the MOST right, or correct, doesn’t really matter so much, in the end. Well to me, that is. Just be careful and always do your due diligence at all times. All the best for the pre-NFP movement (or nil movement) and the post movement also.

Pete…. Most on here haven’t passed their driving test..
  • #219
  • Aug 3, 2021 7:51pm Aug 3, 2021 7:51pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Pete…. Most on here haven’t passed their driving test..


Hi Andy,

hahaaa


Well you, yourself, have been photographed many a time in the Formula One Pits I understand .

So any thought of a car just rolling must be quite gruesome for you.


(I should have mentioned flat-stick and red-line a few times to catch your attention ).

  • #220
  • Aug 3, 2021 9:39pm Aug 3, 2021 9:39pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi Andy, hahaaa Well you, yourself, have been photographed many a time in the Formula One Pits I understand . So any thought of a car just rolling must be quite gruesome for you. (I should have mentioned flat-stick and red-line a few times to catch your attention ).
Lol, back to the track later.......

Saw elsewhere a discussion on EURUSD...

As I'm always wrong I'll put this up, just a thought and no doubt it will head the opposite way...
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