Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Hi Navin,
This is a very good question. It was a week of wasted opportunities and squandered profits. Something I would rather forget, however, It is good that you're asking because it forces me to face my mistakes, and hopefully in future, I can eliminate them.
I was hoping for a pullback at 1.3750 ish in the form of a "W" or something which never came. My idea was to close most of my sell trades and initiate buy trades. It never came. This thing went on and on and on............need I say more. I was kinda married to my trades.
I will see how next week unfolds and am hoping for a retrace of my 50% fib area at 1.37775 or round number 1.380000 where I could look for bullish reversal signals to initiate buy trades and also close some sell trades. On the other hand, there could be a twist in the tale and price could go down all the way and more. I could be kicking myself even more next week. Tricky times indeed.
Anyway, I have attached my chart with all my exits to show how stupid and naive I was. The highlighted (light coral) is the area I thought price would come back down.
Have a great weekend,
Cheers.

There will be a small retrace on Gbpusd 100-200 points and then a sharp sell down. The general trend is down.

Hello Garrick, you are not alone about some surprises that price brought last week but such surprises are not uncharacteristic. 1.3750/1.3786 area which was the low June 21 should and could have been the area where bears needed to stop the bull recovery but failure to stop at 1.3786 took price by additional 200 pips surge to 1.3983.

1.3786 broke downward by 200 pips in July to 1.3571
1.3786 broke upward by 200 pips in July to 1.3983 within 10 trade days...

Now this August, the watch Zones are 1.4020 and 1.3786, as violation of either zone will bring Either 1.4300 or 1.3516.


Also noteworthy that 6 of the last 10 years August have ended bearish.

In my previous post, I did state that we still have additional 600 more pips to break either year 2021 high of 1.4250 or year 2021 low of 1.3450. The close of this August will go a long way in determining which of these two Zones will break which also determine 1.28 or 1.48 area by or before December 2021.

My bias will remain heavily bearish to 1.3446 in days/weeks ahead as far as 1.4020 holds.

Just a mini addition, July did work almost as expected between 1.35 to 1.39.

You are one of the best traders I have seen and your analysis are always informative and non biased. Keep up the good work and remember one surprise isn't good enough to change your well thought direction and analysis.

Cheers,
George.

Wavegarricks chart gives significant and clear levels to look at if a sell down takes place.

Pat which country do you live in, since I see you posting pictures from all over the place? Obviously not married yet with children, since you have the freedom of time.

Morning school drive.

Ogbeni
Apt as usual. Just like one of us stated earlier, @elbert or so. One tends to see direction as one trades, irrespective of movement. I still believe that triple top may happen before the heavy fall to 1.35. Like i said earlier my buy guns are at 1.38 till 1.42 - 43 and subsequent fall

#Scratch that.... 1.46 to 1.47 in the woods before this fall. That is if it doesn't fall from now
1.42 to 1.43
1.46 to 1.47

how do you guys view this chart . Don’t be shy please comment and we can exchange thoughts .

Daily min 1.41200.As maximum i dont know.And daily bullish -movings.Correction can be.But daily bullish.1.38-1.38300.if daily staying here fore many days.after will be stars.

Ogbeni... Shine ya eyes well this August o.

Abi na before them go run us street. Unto BBN.

I think i was thinking and doing almost the same thing as u..
I was simply playing for the formation of a drop..I do not understand how the hell this thing just rose..apart from the lockdown issues being haulted..anyways i think we possibility at the top. the top to bottom retrace is 61.8. Lets hope the trend direction is down and not up

This the problem with swing trading..we develop a bias and missed excellent buy area

Hi all!
1.3850/53 my first target. After that it should bounce, but lets see once we're there.
GL.

Good weekend to all.

thinking same..it like u writing from my head

This monthly candle will fail
Potential breakout and pullback??

Morning Navin . How many years does your monthly chart show

Morning bro..from may 93
crossing 1.4 is not going be easy.. I think this market is just making people work..to swing trade u really have be quite good to survive

You sure it won't touch 1.38 and voom skyrocket

Thought I’d bore you all with another essay this weekend. Hope everyone is well. Please note I write these things for myself primarily and know it’s not my place to teach anyone anything. I can barely tie my own shoe laces and have much respect for all of you, especially the vets.

The role of design in trading.

One of the reasons trading is so difficult is the subjectivity of it all. This quote from the linguist Michael J. Reddy sums up perfectly the problems each trader faces with gauging sentiment and also in this forum trying to understand each other.

“I should like to suggest that, in talking to one another, we are like people isolated in slightly different environments. Imagine, if you will, a huge compound, shaped like a wagon wheel. Each pie-shaped sector of the wheel is an environment, with two spokes and part of the circumference forming the walls. The environments have much in common with one another – water, trees, small plants, rocks, and the like – yet no two are exactly alike. They contain different kinds of trees, plants, terrain, and so on. Dwelling in each sector is one person who must survive in his own special environment. At the hub of the wheel is some machinery which can deliver small sheets of paper from one environment to another. Let us suppose that the people in these environments have learned how to use this machinery to exchange crude sets of instructions with one another – instructions for making things helpful in surviving, such as tools, perhaps, or shelters, or foods, and the like. But there is no way absolutely for the people to visit each other’s environments, or even to exchange samples of what they construct. This is crucial. The people can only exchange these crude sets of instructions – odd-looking blueprints scratched on special sheets of paper that appear from these slots in the hub and can be deposited in another slot – and nothing more. Indeed, since there is no way to shout across the walls of the sectors, the people know of one another’s existence indirectly, by a cumulative series of inferences. This part of the story, the no visiting and no exchange of indigenous materials rule, we shall call the postulate of ‘radical subjectivity’.”

One solution to this is framing. The frame problem, a term used by AI developers, is the problem of determining what is relevant and what can be safely ignored. It is actually an extremely complicated issue. There are an infinite number of ways to perceive or construe a given situation, and an infinite number of potential consequences of a given action or event. What is relevant? Relevance cannot be determined objectively. For example, a failure test is a way of framing price action defined by the failure of a specific frame determined by the trader, based upon the constraints of a specific ‘operative context’ or frame. When price action is confluent with multiple frames it is much easier to make good decisions. On some level every ‘trade’ is a frame and every trader is a frame maker - from his or her own special environment as described by Michael Reddy. Richard D. Wyckoff was an exceptional frame maker. Many in this forum too. A trading plan / strategy is essentially the defining of strong frames that stand up to the reality of trading. So learning about design and the psychology of design can only improve one’s ability to frame price action, frame trades, frame risk, and so much else that is essential to trading success and communicating those ideas from one special environment to another, with all the problems imposed by radical subjectivity.

Have a great weekend