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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #611,641
  • Jul 22, 2021 3:07pm Jul 22, 2021 3:07pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I need to get up the courage to increase my lot size.
probably try to think about %, not money
or
leave it as it is.., again for a while

dolce vita
  • #611,642
  • Jul 22, 2021 3:10pm Jul 22, 2021 3:10pm
nice weekly chart
does it looks like down (?).., probably next week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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dolce vita
  • #611,643
  • Jul 22, 2021 3:14pm Jul 22, 2021 3:14pm
missing pivot (22.07)
where she has to come
when?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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dolce vita
  • #611,644
  • Jul 22, 2021 3:21pm Jul 22, 2021 3:21pm
and last one
daily with bullish div., that I think ready to explode
green line

she has to be up and down..,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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dolce vita
  • #611,645
  • Jul 22, 2021 3:24pm Jul 22, 2021 3:24pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I need to get up the courage to increase my lot size.
First you need to decide how much of your account can risk on any one trade.
This depends on the success rate of your system, but a good rule of thumb is 2 - 5%.

So you see a trade setup.
Determine where you would set a logical stop on that trade, depending on your system, the charts, or whatever you use.
How many pips is this?

Then the formula is:
Position size (in home currency) = (10000*account size * % risk) / (pips stop)
so if you had a $1000 account, willing to risk 5% on any one trade, and a 40 pip stoploss looked right to you, then position size P

P = 10,000 * 1000 * 5% / 40
P = 12,500
so you could trade 1.25 mini lots on this trade.

This calculation assumes a pair where a pip is some even multiple of 10.
It needs a fudge factor thrown in for other pairs.
Or, calculate what the 40 pips represents in dollars (or home currency) per lot.

If you're trading 1 mini lot ($10,000) on the GBP/JPY, 40 pips is $34.70, that's your dollars risked per lot traded. Your account is $500 and you're willing to risk 3%, or $15. So you get the ratios
10,000 / trade size = $34.70 / $15
cross multiply then divide to get
10,000 * 15 / 34.70 = $4464
You can trade 0.446 mini lots, or $4460 dollars.

PAT
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #611,646
  • Jul 22, 2021 3:25pm Jul 22, 2021 3:25pm
i am out with a big loss
waiting for a long set up tomorrow as long as price is above the 200 ema
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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yes yes yes
  • #611,647
  • Jul 22, 2021 3:33pm Jul 22, 2021 3:33pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} First you need to decide how much of your account you can risk on any one trade. This depends on the success rate of your system, but a good rule of thumb is 2 - 5%. So you see a trade setup. Determine where you would set a logical stop on that trade, depending on your system, the charts, or whatever you use. How many pips is this? Then the formula is: Position size (in home currency) = (10000*account size * % risk) / (pips stop) so if you had a $1000 account, willing to risk 5% on any one trade, and a 40 pip stoploss looked right to you,...
I understand this. It's my courage that's lacking. I have a decent account size. But I still trade small lots. LOL
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #611,648
  • Jul 22, 2021 3:34pm Jul 22, 2021 3:34pm
Quoting anubieonly
I shorted, will trailing it since going to sleep, hope can reach tp {image}
hit my trailing 20 pips only, shorted because rejected by gold fib yesterday
I think still possibility to go up might be 1.38-39
Hope everyone gets green pips
  • #611,649
  • Jul 22, 2021 3:35pm Jul 22, 2021 3:35pm
Quoting babayaga
{quote} probably try to think about %, not money...
That's the hard part.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #611,650
  • Jul 22, 2021 3:37pm Jul 22, 2021 3:37pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I understand this. It's my courage that's lacking. I have a decent account size. But I still trade small lots. LOL
Hi mate, I traded usually using 3 different types, big size only for 10 pips tp, med to small size for longer target, but I prefer small size since I always can sleep well but for big size need to watch until I can put at least on bep
Hope everyone gets green pips
  • #611,651
  • Jul 22, 2021 3:38pm Jul 22, 2021 3:38pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} First you need to decide how much of your account can risk on any one trade. This depends on the success rate of your system, but a good rule of thumb is 2 - 5%. So you see a trade setup. Determine where you would set a logical stop on that trade, depending on your system, the charts, or whatever you use. How many pips is this? Then the formula is: Position size (in home currency) = (10000*account size * % risk) / (pips stop) so if you had a $1000 account, willing to risk 5% on any one trade, and a 40 pip stoploss looked right to you, then...
Hope everyone gets green pips
  • #611,652
  • Jul 22, 2021 4:18pm Jul 22, 2021 4:18pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I understand this. It's my courage that's lacking. I have a decent account size. But I still trade small lots. LOL
Then it is Is it as simple as saying that for each position you put on, you either win, or you lose?
You must find a good trading strategy to trade with confidence.
OR isn't it more complicated than that in that the probability of a winning trade depends upon the particular currency pair and its historical behavior, coupled with profit and stop loss targets.

Win/Lose 50% is not magic, it's just the mean and median of all trades.
A "good" trader should be generally be able to achieve 50% or better--this means he has a well developed system of sense of entry and exit.
Inexperienced traders are poor in entry.

Additionally, inexperience (a.k.a. greed) often causes traders to overstay their welcome, turning otherwise profitable entries into net losses.

My scalping method focus on good entry. If not, I will quickly kill the trade and focus to the next set up.
Most of the time, my reward/risk ratio is less than 1.
But as general rules, good traders must strive for at least 2:1 (R:R)

The balance of
(1) batting average (win/loss) and
(2) payoff (reward/risk) determines whether or not you will survive and prosper.

What we should strive for are not necessarily targets for highest w/l and r/r, but steady growth of our account equity, the equity curve.

Yes, if you set profit target only 10-20 pips rather than 200 pips, your w/l should be very good if your enty/exit techniques are sound.

However, using 10-20 as profit target, what is your risk?
If you set your stop loss at 20 pips with a daily range of 76, you would most likely stop out often, thereby decreasing your w/l ratio.

However if you set a reasonable stop at 100-150 (the stop level depends on your trading style and volatility) and maintained your 10-20 pip profit target, your w/l should be fairly high.

However, with profit target~10-20 and stop~100, your reward/risk=20/100=0.2 (if you could win 100% of your entries).
So w/l~80% and risk/reward<=0.2, your equity curve would be very choppy and you would be broke after about 100 to 200 trades.

As I noted in another post on setting stops, this is not a trivial topic.
Your stop also measures what percent of equity you risk, which should be about 1% per position.

PAT
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #611,653
  • Jul 22, 2021 4:46pm Jul 22, 2021 4:46pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Then it is Is it as simple as saying that for each position you put on, you either win, or you lose? You must find a good trading strategy to trade with confidence. OR isn't it more complicated than that in that the probability of a winning trade depends upon the particular currency pair and its historical behavior, coupled with profit and stop loss targets. Win/Lose 50% is not magic, it's just the mean and median of all trades. A "good" trader should be generally be able to achieve 50% or better--this means he has a well developed system...
My win rate is easily over 50%. But there are psychological hurdles to overcome.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #611,654
  • Jul 22, 2021 4:57pm Jul 22, 2021 4:57pm
Quoting Moty
i am out with a big loss waiting for a long set up tomorrow as long as price is above the 200 ema {image}
To me,

above 3750, first 3808 and then 3850 even.
Intraday only.
  • #611,655
  • Jul 22, 2021 5:00pm Jul 22, 2021 5:00pm
Quoting navk
{quote} To me, above 3750, first 3808 and then 3850 even.
Friday zone 3850 - 3750 - 3650
"Buy Cheap and Sell Expensive , Its Market Anyways where People Get profit"
  • #611,656
  • Jul 22, 2021 5:02pm Jul 22, 2021 5:02pm
Hmm. I'm closed all longs. Switch to short
  • #611,657
  • Jul 22, 2021 5:23pm Jul 22, 2021 5:23pm
Weekly candle at current price or higher is too good to be true.
My technical analysis leading trades depend on Daily/Weekly/Monthly Chart
  • #611,658
  • Jul 22, 2021 7:15pm Jul 22, 2021 7:15pm
Quoting navk
{quote} The price is bullish. No point in shorting. If today trend changes, then yes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Bullish ? yes if price still in Bullish channel in bigger frame and havent broke the channel
Bearish ? yes also if the price still rejected from the Pivot in down channel (1.38000) or upper TL ( 1.38500 )

but in my plan that pivot or upper TL should hold one more wave to (1.35000) if bullish wanna done magic move to 1.39000 once more to decide last move

its all just opinion and brute plan >.< use risk Management
"Buy Cheap and Sell Expensive , Its Market Anyways where People Get profit"
  • #611,659
  • Jul 22, 2021 7:18pm Jul 22, 2021 7:18pm
well, resistance formed at 3780.

short below 3780 today for me.
Intraday only.
  • #611,660
  • Jul 22, 2021 7:33pm Jul 22, 2021 7:33pm
Quoting navk
well, resistance formed at 3780. short below 3780 today for me.
yes , we are on pivot channel , so price may surge down from here with high probability . lets get some good profit today nav ~ ^_^

ive sell order @1.37720 area trying some friday luck
"Buy Cheap and Sell Expensive , Its Market Anyways where People Get profit"
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