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Trading Made Simple

  • #122,541
  • Jul 16, 2021 12:03pm Jul 16, 2021 12:03pm
Quoting tommydoginti
TMS is different. First, SLTP in pips is different in every trade. Not all the trades I would trail stop loss depending on trade plan. If trail, it is also different in each trade, sometimes it is triggered at 30% TP level, sometimes 57% etc. Because those are determined with price levels. Second, Not every trades are analysed the same. Discretionary systems have a set of rules which is more complicated.
Then you are not trading TMS. You are trading everyday different. You think that it is because the market changes, but in fact it is just because there are no system at all. For example I'm trading Enhanced TMS with EA. There are strict rules. They are not depends on the feelings. And it works good. But if code TMS it will fail with EA. And win with manual trading. Amazing. How can it be?

If read that thread you all have no bad trades! Never. Ever. All the trades closed in profit! There are no stop losses hit, no hedges. What a magic system! 10+ years of such a profitable trading. Private island, jet and hookers around.

So how it can be? Lucky day by day? Why not to go to casino if you are so lucky?

And what for we need rules then? And a strategy? If everyday we change it. Today we will not use Stoch, tomorrow the angale of TDI will be that, not that. Next day it is OK to trade smaller candles. And so on.

TMS as a system is very stupid and it has no positive expectation. It must be improved. Why you all cling to the past and do not want to change anything and cannot admit that all this is nonsense - that is the main question.
Observer effect
  • #122,542
  • Jul 16, 2021 1:30pm Jul 16, 2021 1:30pm
I am ready for next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_5.png Size: 59 KB
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #122,543
  • Jul 16, 2021 1:36pm Jul 16, 2021 1:36pm
Quoting hasib
{quote} yes, You and I both know there is weekly fibo pivot 61.8% in 35096 price could move lower there is a possibility, Also if we look at daily chart we can see price is ready to move lower. But I trade what I see not what could happen or should happen. if price start to move lower I will see it. and I will trade it.
Really, there is a much simpler analysis than that, no Fib. numbers or other kinds of levels to be concerned about except where the W1 bar closes.

The W1 is in a RALLY that is due to end.
H4 is is making an attempt to turn down to get the W1 stopped, but now that H8 has also turned up, any down swing must go far enough to take down the H8 as well.

So when "if price start to move lower I will see it. and I will trade it.", you should have a big interest in what is happening on H2 and H4, not just randomly or habitually picking a TF to check.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #122,544
  • Jul 16, 2021 1:39pm Jul 16, 2021 1:39pm
Quoting hasib
{quote} Your quite right Us news come out positive, price move lower, seems like price don't wanted to move lower, but price move lower. what are the reason you call this move?
Making a new high is not the most important point: It is more important where the close occurs.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #122,545
  • Jul 16, 2021 2:04pm Jul 16, 2021 2:04pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Then you are not trading TMS. You are trading everyday different. You think that it is because the market changes, but in fact it is just because there are no system at all. For example I'm trading Enhanced TMS with EA. There are strict rules. They are not depends on the feelings. And it works good. But if code TMS it will fail with EA. And win with manual trading. Amazing. How can it be? If read that thread you all have no bad trades! Never. Ever. All the trades closed in profit! There are no stop losses hit, no hedges. What a magic system!...
TMS (the 5-method) is discretionary treading, so as long as the TDI green cross or bounce red is used as step 1 and then the follow up is to apply the discretionary entry criteria to decide if there is a worthwhile entry opportunity, it is hardly possible to say that it is not the 5-method. And, that means "you are trading everyday different[ly].", because there will be different parts of the entry criteria met every day. But trading every day differently does not invalidate that you are trading the 5-method.

BigE did not give entry criteria that are required to be met but rather, he gave entry criteria that are to be evaluated to determine if the ones that are not met out weigh the ones that are met. And of course, this weighting is determined at the discretion of each trader rather than being some fixed values that could be programmed into an EA.

BigE could have used an EA for exiting when price turned back, because he stated that he would not knowingly give back 30 pips, and in fact, hated to give back even 15 pips, so if he were watching a trade, he would manually exit it. But even for that activity, he did not employ an EA, giving further weight to his statement of not wanting EAs in this thread.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #122,546
  • Edited Jul 17, 2021 4:47am Jul 16, 2021 2:12pm | Edited Jul 17, 2021 4:47am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Then you are not trading TMS. You are trading everyday different. You think that it is because the market changes, but in fact it is just because there are no system at all. For example I'm trading Enhanced TMS with EA. There are strict rules. They are not depends on the feelings. And it works good. But if code TMS it will fail with EA. And win with manual trading. Amazing. How can it be? If read that thread you all have no bad trades! Never. Ever. All the trades closed in profit! There are no stop losses hit, no hedges. What a magic system!...
And what for we need rules then? And a strategy? If everyday we change it. Today we will not use Stoch, tomorrow the angale of TDI will be that, not that. Next day it is OK to trade smaller candles. And so on.
That makes a problem only for the people that actually DO make changes!! Read BigE's posts again and see if he made changes such as to the angle of the TDI to use, or that small bars are OK to trade.

As for the stoch, didn't he say from the beginning of the TMS thread that the stoch was used ONLY for confirmation of the TDI, but was not actually required to use?

But if you want to discuss changes, then you need to discuss what OTHER traders have injected into the thread, especially things like EAs, that BigE said do not add ANYTHING. And then look at how many of the traders that follow their distortion, or even out right perversion, of the 5-method are reporting their fantastic result or are reporting that their distorted system is garbage.

Or even more telling, check on the people that have posted in the last 2 years that are trying to follow what Vincent posts and say how much they have learned and how helpful he has been. How many have so HAPPILY reported back their FANTASTIC results, and how many have reported absolutely nothing? I am sure that you will agree that the absence of any trading results at all being reported, whether good or bad, speaks volumes.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #122,547
  • Jul 16, 2021 3:03pm Jul 16, 2021 3:03pm
Quoting DrDave
And then look at how many of the traders that follow their distortion, or even out right perversion, of the 5-method are reporting their fnatastic result or are reporting that their distorted system is garbage. Or even more telling, check on the people that have posted in the last 2 years that are trying to follow what Vincent posts and say how much they have learned and how helpful he has been. How many have so HAPPILY reported back their FANTATATIC results, and how many have reported absolutely nothing? I am sure that you will agree that the absence...
Ok, then I can enter not on 3rd candle, but on 2nd. Not at London open, but at NY close. Stoch is just for confirmation, so I'll delete it. TDI cross... whatever. Candle size? I see it is BIG enough.

Isn't it VERY good comfortable for "I'LL SHOW YOU where did you have to enter" scenario? And may that's why there are no bad trades?

P.S. I can't "look" at your trades. There are no "trades" here. Only arrows placed on the historical charts.

B - for bull. S - for shit. Bullshit.

I asked about 2 week real TMS trading. You all scared. Because TMS is bullshit. You will lose.
Observer effect
  • #122,548
  • Jul 16, 2021 3:08pm Jul 16, 2021 3:08pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} And what for we need rules then? And a strategy? If everyday we change it. Today we will not use Stoch, tomorrow the angale of TDI will be that, not that. Next day it is OK to trade smaller candles. And so on. That makes a problem only for the people that actually DO make changes!! Read BigE's posts again and see if he made changes such as to the angle of the TDI to use, or that small bars are OK to trade. As for the stoch, didn't he say from the beginning of the TMS thread that the stoch was used ONLY for confirmation of the TDI, but was...


I follow the topic since I joined FF. And from the beginning until now I haven't changed at all and I'm still working. What I see most are many changes with shallow analysis or without any analysis or back testing. If you put the initial configuration, you will see that it works. That simple.
  • #122,549
  • Jul 16, 2021 7:10pm Jul 16, 2021 7:10pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Then you are not trading TMS. You are trading everyday different. You think that it is because the market changes, but in fact it is just because there are no system at all. For example I'm trading Enhanced TMS with EA. There are strict rules. They are not depends on the feelings. And it works good. But if code TMS it will fail with EA. And win with manual trading. Amazing. How can it be? If read that thread you all have no bad trades! Never. Ever. All the trades closed in profit! There are no stop losses hit, no hedges. What a magic system!...
Hi Ryu,

Relax.

First, please read this post in case you have missed.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post13622552

The reason why Trading Made Simple should be done manually, is because, as BigE said, EA so far cannot read market condition like human.

The way trading a discretionary and systematic strategy like TMS is like driving in my opinion.

say one drive with very rigid rules for overtaking
1) drive on left (in HK)
2) if overtake, go to right lane and speed up a bit
3) after overtake, go back right and slow down to original speed

4) if overtaking 2 cars, keep right until overtaking all. No slow down
5) if the second car is xxx meters from first car, or it is faster so by the time overtaking the first car, the second car is xxx meters from first car, only overtake first car.

6) if seeing a traffic light ahead (with no prior knowledge of the road), no overtaking

While a human can follow the rules pretty easily, I would say after Tesla developing the auto driving for so long, it cannot follow those rules.

One main reason is the car sensor cannot see far enough the second car or the traffic light.

That is similar in TMS. The optimal trail SL point is not 10pips everytime.

And I use the TDI green/red line with considerations of #647

trade well
  • #122,550
  • Jul 16, 2021 7:16pm Jul 16, 2021 7:16pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Ok, then I can enter not on 3rd candle, but on 2nd. Not at London open, but at NY close. Stoch is just for confirmation, so I'll delete it. TDI cross... whatever. Candle size? I see it is BIG enough. Isn't it VERY good comfortable for "I'LL SHOW YOU where did you have to enter" scenario? And may that's why there are no bad trades? P.S. I can't "look" at your trades. There are no "trades" here. Only arrows placed on the historical charts. B - for bull. S - for shit. Bullshit. I asked about 2 week real TMS trading. You all scared. Because...
"Ok, then I can enter not on 3rd candle, ..."

Yes! You can enter on 3rd APB/HA candle. The OP training chart Post#351.

Quoting eelfranz
Training Char - Going south (short). Even though it's candle #3 it looks strong for a trade entry... USD/JPY 4hr. {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Big E #351 chart 17-7-2021 8-13-35 am.png Size: 126 KB


But you can't make any real $$$money paper trading.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #122,551
  • Jul 16, 2021 7:22pm Jul 16, 2021 7:22pm
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} Hi Ryu, Relax. First, please read this post in case you have missed. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post13622552 The reason why Trading Made Simple should be done manually, is because, as BigE said, EA so far cannot read market condition like human. The way trading a discretionary and systematic strategy like TMS is like driving in my opinion. say one drive with very rigid rules for overtaking 1) drive on left (in HK) 2) if overtake, go to right lane and speed up a bit 3) after overtake, go back right and slow...

@tommydogie

Do you own a car in Hong Kong?

Can you drive your car in Hong Kong without a valid drivers license issued by the HK SAR government?

Current Hong Kong island road infrastructure is not able to enable driver-less technology.

Where do you park your car in Hong Kong when you are not driving?

We all know the car park space in Hong Kong can cost million of dollars....
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57353627

Trading TMS cannot afford a owning a car nor parking it at home.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #122,552
  • Jul 16, 2021 7:52pm Jul 16, 2021 7:52pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} today when NY bell we are looking at the 35000 level and see if make a new high ( above 35096 ?) and if it collapses thereafter.

Quoting hasib
{quote} Your quite right Us news come out positive, price move lower, seems like price don't wanted to move lower, but price move lower. what are the reason you call this move?
BINGO! it collapsed from 35091.6

"Predictive gambling" pays off Friday Jul 16.

When Dow made new highs, buyers and sellers are trading in the 'clouds' and retail traders we do not see previous price action PPA in the 'clouds'. That is why the original TDI used by Big E cannot be used for trading E-Mini Futures. For one simple reason, that TDI #25 used by Big E is lagging one bar/candle price action.

I trade Price Action at key levels plus use 3x 'TDI cloud' as guide to pick the m1m2m3 and m2m3m5 setups taught by a CME veteran trader with 25 years trading experience and had a proven track record.

Do you want to follow a newbie trader in this thread with only 1 year trading experience and trading Big E' TMS since Feb 2021?

- May 2020 Week 18 open rally ended at the high 35090ish depends on which broker price data you have.

- 2nd.Q corporate results ... is slowly sinking in slowly.... choppy market conditions.

- we are in 3rd.Q GDP ... what is the July outlook?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #122,553
  • Jul 16, 2021 8:11pm Jul 16, 2021 8:11pm
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} BigE did not use EA. ...

"BigE did not use EA. .."

@tommydogie

that is not true!

Big E did used EAs. If he did not use EAs, he would not have known that "Most EA"s don't work well anyway...". Post#139.

He tried several EAs (about 10 of them) and most did not work for him. But one work, but which ones?
I know those EAs he tried between 2008 and 2011. I have exactly the same experience like Big E, most of those EAs between 2008 and 2011 did not work but only one has worked since then till today still working.
In fact, of the 80+ EAs, there are a few EAs that have been working the last 5 to 10 years and these are not here in Forex Factory anymore.

Did Big E use a trade manager EA. Yes! he could not get it to work for his 4hr trading ... his 10PM entry, 2AM entry and 6AM exit.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #122,554
  • Jul 16, 2021 8:19pm Jul 16, 2021 8:19pm
Quoting romulorios
{quote} I follow the topic since I joined FF. And from the beginning until now I haven't changed at all and I'm still working. What I see most are many changes with shallow analysis or without any analysis or back testing. If you put the initial configuration, you will see that it works. That simple.

That correct!

In this thread title "Trading made Simple" we discuss and trade Big E' 5-Method. Post#5.

The simple and elegant 5-Method will work today, tomorrow and the day after.... and so on.

But can traders make money consistently trading Big E' 5-Method?

Can traders make 150 to 200 pips every week trading Big E' 5-Method and trading the same Pacific time 10PM and 2AM 4hr candles and closing trades at 6AM?

Answer is simple: Follow his Post#1 and trade Demo for 12 months and only for his 8 pairs.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #122,555
  • Jul 16, 2021 8:34pm Jul 16, 2021 8:34pm
Quoting hasib
I am ready for next week. {image}

I'm ready too with some OPM.

- with 4 key levels and I know where I aim and make one-shot one-kill type of trades.

- I'll have more key levels when market opens and the NY bell rings.... m2m3m5 sight-settings.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US30 Jul 16 review May10 rally ended 17-7-2021 9-27-47 am.png Size: 92 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #122,556
  • Jul 16, 2021 8:42pm Jul 16, 2021 8:42pm
HOW DO STOCK MARKETS REACT TO CHANGES IN OIL PRICES?

This box analyses the impact of oil prices on euro area stock markets. An increase in oil prices usually lowers the expected rate of economic growth and increases inflation expectations over shorter horizons. Decreasing economic growth prospects, in turn, lower companies’ earnings expectations, resulting in a dampening effect on stock prices. Moreover, the increase in input prices for companies associated with an increase in oil prices in general tends to compress profit margins. In addition, during periods of high oil prices, investors usually become more uncertain about the outlook for corporate earnings which, in turn, may lead to higher equity risk premia, putting additional downward pressure on stock prices. Normally, a combination of these factors tends to outweigh the positive effect on stock prices stemming from the decline in real long-term yields which often accompanies an increase in oil prices. In the following, the influence of oil prices is examined by comparing the average stock returns for the broad-based Dow Jones EURO STOXX index and its sectors during periods in which oil prices were in a low/middle range or in a high range. The high range is defined as an upward deviation from the average real oil price in the period from 1987 to 2004 of more than 10%. The chart displays the average monthly stock returns for the ten economic sectors of the index and for the total index under the different oil price regimes. Several features emerge from the chart. First, aggregate stock prices in the euro area tend to be negatively related to the level of oil prices over the sample period, which starts in 1987. Overall, the Dow Jones EURO STOXX index increased on average by around 1% per month during periods of low/medium levels of oil prices, but performed negatively during times of high oil prices. Second, the performance differed significantly across sectors. In general, energy and utilities seemed to be less affected by high oil price levels (compared with the overall index), whereas the cyclical goods, technology and telecom sectors tended to underperform most in such circumstances. Overall, the total market and sectoral stock price performances during periods of high and low real oil prices are consistent with the expectation that oil price increases influence
Attached Image
stock prices negatively via their impact on the outlook for corporate earnings. In this respect, the relative underperformance of the cyclical goods sector may be linked to investors’ concerns that high oil prices may have a particularly strong dampening effect on the earnings within this sector as it is the most closely related to the business cycle. However, some sectors may be less affected by or may even benefit from higher oil prices. Reflecting this latter possibility, the less negative return of the energy sector (i.e. compared with the overall index) may be explained by the fact that its revenues are positively linked to developments in oil prices. The utilities sector also performs relatively well when oil prices are relatively high, which may be linked to demand shifts towards alternative energy sources such as natural gas during those periods.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #122,557
  • Jul 16, 2021 8:54pm Jul 16, 2021 8:54pm
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} Hi Ryu, The rules of Trading Made Simple are laid out by BigE throughout his posts. Some people don't have the intelligence to differentiate TMS as a system and BigE as a trader trading the system, mistaking (for years) someone's habit as the RULE. The way I practice TMS can be found in the following posts by BigE, not made up by me 1. TDI is heart of the TMS 5-method --- #261, #2617 All trades...

"The rules of Trading Made Simple are laid out by BigE throughout his posts."

You will find several 'rules' Big E' Trading Made Simple in his first post ... Post#1.

Each post is just a piece of the Big E TMS puzzle.


Attached Image
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #122,558
  • Jul 16, 2021 9:03pm Jul 16, 2021 9:03pm
Quoting eelfranz
Entries and exits... .... Give yourself a chance and trade it like it's layed out...
First, we have Post#6

Entries and exits...

We Enter a trade when green crosses red on the TDI at the beginning of that candle... If it's candle 3 or more don't enter... find another trade set up. The only exception is if green bounces off red and continues... it's ok to re-enter on the bounce...

Exit your trade when the green TDI line goes flat, starts to hook over or makes a check mark reversal.

If you add other things it will influence your decisions... usually to your detrament. Don't try to complicate it thinking it can't be this easy.

Important to study TDI entries on old charts, any time frame... Give yourself a chance and trade it like it's layed out...

Then come the confusion Post#7612

WHEN TO EXIT -----------------

OK there appears to be some confusion here...

According to the rules you exit when the TDI GREEN LINE goes flat, check mark reversal or hooks over.... this is for the conserative trader and works great.

However.... note the blue box on the TDI below. See how the green line archs like a worm crawling up the red line without crossing red. You could have stayed in the whole trade without exiting until green crossed red finally.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Big E #7612 chart.png Size: 147 KB


So when do you break that rule in Post#6?

Can an EA be coded ignores Post#6 and manage trades to follow Post#7612?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #122,559
  • Jul 16, 2021 9:09pm Jul 16, 2021 9:09pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Ok, then I can enter not on 3rd candle, but on 2nd. Not at London open, but at NY close. Stoch is just for confirmation, so I'll delete it. TDI cross... whatever. Candle size? I see it is BIG enough. Isn't it VERY good comfortable for "I'LL SHOW YOU where did you have to enter" scenario? And may that's why there are no bad trades? P.S. I can't "look" at your trades. There are no "trades" here. Only arrows placed on the historical charts. B - for bull. S - for shit. Bullshit. I asked about 2 week real TMS trading. You all scared. Because...


B - for bull. S - for shit. Bullshit.

I asked about 2 week real TMS trading. You all scared. Because TMS is bullshit. You will lose.

Big E' TMS 5-Method vs 'Dr'Dave TDA with IMT challenge!

And the winner is ....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Big E compare FakeDrDave.png Size: 322 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #122,560
  • Jul 16, 2021 9:10pm Jul 16, 2021 9:10pm
Quoting romulorios
{quote} I follow the topic since I joined FF. And from the beginning until now I haven't changed at all and I'm still working. What I see most are many changes with shallow analysis or without any analysis or back testing. If you put the initial configuration, you will see that it works. That simple.

Absolutely correct!

follow the rules laid out by BigE

The way I practice TMS can be found in the following posts by BigE, not made up by me

1. TDI is heart of the TMS 5-method --- #261, #2617
All trades I share here are signaled by TDI green cross /bounce red

2. I work with time frames and time of day that suits me --- #644, #1170, #4470
I usually trade during work hour because of my privilege at my job which I have a lot of free time. Sometimes at night because it is London/NY market time when volatility is high. I like Lower Time Frame because I prefer quick-in-quick-out.

3. I use simple PA analysis that everyone can learn --- #276, #647
I prefer leading ones which I can anticipate TMS TDI cross/bounce setups to catch the swing in early stage like BigE demonstrated in his charts

4. Aligning with the discussion of this thread during BigE's time, entries are the main focus --- #495
If I have other aspect of trading to share, I would go to other related threads. I hope readers in this thread can receive concise and relative information in respective thread for efficient learning

5. I apply the correct use of TDI Green & Red lines --- #11
#11 has clearly shown that BigE refreshed his chart before viewing the chart. Traders who want to learn and practice the TMS should 1) refresh the chart before analysis, or 2) use a non-repainting TDI Green Red indicator. I chose the later.

6. Absolutely no EA --- #802
Two reasons: 1) To respect the thread rule. 2) If you need to rely on EAs to help you become profitable, i) Your trading skill is so-so at this stage, and ii) you will never learn the discretionary analysis that can further improve your trading skills

7. Most importantly, I participate the forum with respect --- #486
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