Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Same Scenario Happen Previously

GU H1

GU H4

I’m going to cancel my short and go long for a bit potentially 13930-40. Shorting will happen again soon though

can any one tell me . what is the thing? why its showing that market already fell down from the 138964

IT,S COMING HOME
IT,S COMING HOME

FOOTBALL,S COMING HOME

Good Luck ENGLAND

Euro 2021 is going ROME

If the win OMG the pound is going to fly! haha

Were going home! Were coming home lol

If England wins 50% will not return back to the offices on Mon, also Bank Holiday was proposed.
Flags all over London. Great atmosphere! Not a foodball fan but looking forward for this match. Good

Currently it looks fine to me as of 1412 GMT. As per Friday’s GU close.

Possible bank holiday tomorrow and/or some hungover traders on Monday so watch out

Bulls took control and formed a double bottom on the institutional demand level around 1.3740. This was the level that created an explosive move up on the 16th of April when the MPC made an announcement so this is a smart money zone. With that said bears have made several attacks down here but was firmly rejected again on Friday

DXY also consolidating at a weekly supply level, my broad expectation is a move down now, perhaps some retrace first so this can translate into a bull week coming up on cable. The major plot twist here is the CPI figures on the 13th, I can't see us taking out the weekly level but can never rule out another spike above the recent highs, anything can happen. The dollar has a lot of space for a freefall now. We have to be aware that Treasury yields are falling sharply which should create a reduction in demand on the Dollar. I think this is just part of a quarterly rebalancing of institutional portfolios into fixed income myself. Check out this interesting article on zero hedge with some theories.. not sure I believe any of these but still interesting: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/he...reasury-yields Gilt yields also saw what looked like a technical retracement on Thurs/Fri which helped GU bulls

I'm a price action scalper so take these HTF observations as just that, observations and levels/scenarios for me to watch out for, trying to predict the exact movement of markets is certainly not in my wheelhouse, I just react to what's happening on the day being aware of the institutional levels that drive buying and selling. As ever expect the unexpected

First area of interest is 1.3840-1.3824 for buying. This was the zone that wiped the last of the sellers in the mid 1.38s. Around 1.3788-1.38 is not out of the question for a buy too. First target might be 1.3955-87. What do you folks think? What would be the technical/fundie reasons for a drop below the level I highlighted and a bear run ? The big thing I'm watching for is a retest of that TL/supply area and this will help confirm cable buys if it turns there

Totally agree with this. Maybe just maybe 1.42 area in sight again

Yes man. I agree too. As I stated on Mr Burger's post. 1.382 area for another buy. It should get to 1.40 to complete the double bottom W. Then come down to below 1.38 for the right shoulder to complete towards 1.41 areas. That 1.375 area support is very solid if one does a trendline on D1. With that, it is gonna be a triple top formation which may push down harder this time. My thought though.
PS: was very busy on Friday and removed my buy limit order on 1.3768. Very painful when i realized it did 100 pips. Well, we live to fight another day

Hi Guys,
I am living by the skin of my teeth here. Having said that, it is nothing I have not anticipated and prepared for. As frustrating as it may be I could have trades taken out that I have worked so hard for over a period of time. The nature of Forex
We are at the 61.8% Fib retrace at 1.38988 of the latest swing move from, 1.40000. This is just below the round number 1.39000. I like this as a potential good short trade.
My future weekly pivot lies at 1.38500 ish. This is going to be very important to me in the new week. A bounce up from here could spell a potentially new bullish cycle. However, I do think there has been a lot of manipulation in these moves, so we could see a strong move down, touch wood, but I want to see a decent break below my weekly pivot at 1.38500. The trend line (magenta) break could also spell a cyclic up move, so a break below will be more comforting for bears. Deciding moments in the new week could mean the difference between a short-term bullish or bearish view for me.
Have a great week and trade safely.
Cheers.

Some contrasted arguments from https://www.fxstreet.com/technical-analysis/sentiment

Sometimes I think they just do this to screw us though!
I would estimate the % of bears was 10-20% greater before Friday

Yea, same boat. I had a sell first thing at Frankfurt for 20 pips, which I TPd at the big buy level which I'd identified in advance. I find it hard to jump straight into another opposing position especially after my target is hit because I don't know if its truly considered or just impulsive. But then it became clear that the move was set to continue around 1.3780, I bought, then it spiked 10 or so pips then came back and took me out BE. By that time I thought hey, met my target, may as well enjoy the Friday rather than chase this one down and risk giving back the profit, then we know what happened next Looking back I had a good 4 opportunities/buy signals but trying not to overtrade. You know something I don't do which I should is spend a good amount of time before the trading day in the morning studying the HTF and trying to come up with a story/narrative of what's happening, where I want to buy and sell rather than just immediately scanning for PA set ups. In the heat of the moment I wasn't really thinking of the 1.3740 zone as a powerful institutional level as I mark out the weaker zones too, If I'd ignored the fake move in the morning I could have just looked for a reversal pattern on this level, bought and sat back (aka hindsight analysis)

Yeah so the big clue for me is the wick rejection off of this weekly level on the dxy (I use it as a bellwether/corroboration for where the other pairs are going). I tend to see the market has horizontal levels/zones of buying and selling above all else. I can't remember where I read this but under S&D theory any zone which creates a gap is particularly strong and this is exactly what we're reacting off of now. It would take some major fundamental trigger to push above this zone on DXY IMO as this is where the big institutions have their sell orders. And we know the big buyers are down at mid 1.37 on cable. This is why I scalp intraday, I have an economics background but I'm not an economic forecaster. It's good to be aware of that stuff I think but I can't possibly forecast that far ahead or react in time.

Like I say i'm not married to this view, anything can happen, just good to be aware of where the buyers and sellers reside in whatever market you're involved in. Could we get some economic news which smashes through my supply level on dxy creating new demand levels? Of course that can happen, so I'll be out of the market for that then adjust accordingly. In that case we can enter a trending period on the dollar index then things get really interesting, the next major zone is at 96/97 and we can be taken down to 1.35 on cable and beyond- who knows. We're really in uncharted territory in economic terms with what the Fed is doing.

Last point, some people will be viewing the daily chart as a double top but we can just as easily be going in for a period of sideways movement, in which case we've maybe reached the bottom of that range and can be headed back to the 1.4s, 1.4082-1.4132 would be good longer range target (next daily supply area) in that case. Even if it is a large M pattern/double top some retracement of the last leg (0.5-0.618) is typical before going back down

I'll stay out of trade early on Monday AND will look for bear trend confirmation. If it confirms then have to short. My personal analysis + others research are suggesting this-
Bullish 55%
Bearish 45%

Also check these out -

https://forexvolumes.com/forex-analy...nces-for-bears
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/techni...PY-EURGBP.html

Hello Wavegarrick,

hope all is well on weekends and must be enjoyable time for your surffing.

What I'm seeing is large, illiquid upwards movements are not uncommon in situations such as this.
This is not necessarily a sign that things are outright reversing.
It is just a lack of liquidity.
We had a ton of late session buying coming on Friday, seemingly out of no where.
Some scalpers (me included) are riding this "spike" up.

Be weary of well above average, dramatic price reactions.
Liquidity will not return to normal anytime soon. Few false moves anticipated.
It will not take much to punch prices much higher or lower, in a minimal amount of time.

Just do what you do best and manage your risk.

Regards

PAT

hi pat chiko, i would like asking about your indicator on your chart, that area on yellow and aqua color, did you manually drawing all alone or thats automatically show up on yours, cause i have one as same as your but the color areas didnt show up
Just curious hehe

Because everyone knows I love predictions England 0 Italy 2, come on Italia

Looks more like England 1 Italy 0 then Motys Rocket

I'll bet you $1,000,000 demo money