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Attachments: Daylight Trading Strategy
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Daylight Trading Strategy

Quoting swingtrade65
{quote} So based on your test, some of your assumptions are correct, but some are not. This is my opinion only and if you take it with a dollar bill to McDonalds you can get a cup of coffee. Let me say first that your mechanical test is a really good first step. It gives you enough confidence in the bare bones of the system to spend more time working on learning the nuances of the system. Now, what should you do next? Why paper trade it of course (or very small lot if you like). You must demonstrate to yourself that you are capable of taking signals...
Ready for the next serving of sucker soup. trading on independence day is not recommended it would seem.
Quoting baxter01
Market structure is a "BIG WORD"..nobody knows in advance if a trend will change and when this will happen orwhen does price go to form a so called range. Drawing a box in hindsight isn`t that difficult and putting a long term EMA on charts to see main direction is surely done by most traders. As you can see on your own charts you missed some nice opportunities and I think ...and that is only my personal view.. that this strategy proposed bys Laura was designed to be used as a daytrading approach. Laura may correct me if I`m wrong. Same problems...

And how successful have you been with those "mechanical or algorythmic" systems?
Quoting swingtrade65
{quote} So based on your test, some of your assumptions are correct, but some are not. This is my opinion only and if you take it with a dollar bill to McDonalds you can get a cup of coffee. Let me say first that your mechanical test is a really good first step. It gives you enough confidence in the bare bones of the system to spend more time working on learning the nuances of the system. Now, what should you do next? Why paper trade it of course (or very small lot if you like). You must demonstrate to yourself that you are capable of taking signals...

Very good points there ST. The only thing I would comment on is the coffee. Unless you want a small, you can't even get that for a dollar...
Quoting baxter01
Market structure is a "BIG WORD"..nobody knows in advance if a trend will change and when this will happen orwhen does price go to form a so called range. Drawing a box in hindsight isn`t that difficult and putting a long term EMA on charts to see main direction is surely done by most traders. As you can see on your own charts you missed some nice opportunities and I think ...and that is only my personal view.. that this strategy proposed bys Laura was designed to be used as a daytrading approach. Laura may correct me if I`m wrong. Same problems...
Sure, it is a BIG WORD as is the concept, but in reality it is something that is being done every day by people right here in front of you. It is called situational awareness. Do you ever sit down in a pub without knowing where the exits are as well as the restrooms? If so, why?
Do you not take great care knowing where you left your car in the mall parking lot
If you are entering trades without knowing the context you and a mechanical system will fail.
Who cares about a missed trade or even ten or a hundred missed opportunities when they are literally limitless.
I chose to not trade in an environment where I don't feel as if I have an advantage.

However, you are absolutely spot on when you said that dojies engulfing etc are "it really matters where those patterns occur" This is exactly my point!!!!!!!!
I will stop here since it seems we actually agree based on your statements
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
Quoting LauraT
{image} Dax short I took this morning. Wanted to highlight this trade to show that it's beneficial to have a degree of flexibility in relation to how we trade Daylight. I was trading 5m Aggressive mode and you'll see from the chart that the fast moving average was above the slow moving average. However, the slow moving average was below -50. A lower high had been made and support had been broken. I expected price to want to test Friday's Low (dotted line). There was a shakeout attempt, taking out that lower high but, crucially, the overnight structure...
That's pretty spooky as I was thinking of asking your view as to if there is a good PA signal then would you be more flexible in 'anticipating' the indis, which you have now answered thanks. In any event the 50 line seems much more important than the fast MA, although that helps with timing naturally.

It's a good structure you have laid out for us with Roadmap & Daylight. I have basically carried over the Williams indis to Roadmap as I like the bias the channel crosses (& failures) of 200 SMA can give in the right circumstances. It's a shame that for 4H trading that the ADR hi/low, daily open and yesterday hi/low are less relevant, as these lines help the daytrader a lot I think as you have shown us. Besides drawing S&R lines on the 4H and higher to get a guide as to taking or locking in profit, plus trendlines & structure, I'm not sure what else can be done. Could ADR hi /low be scaled up i wonder to work on 4H? It works so well on lower TFs as a place to take profit or at least monitor very closely.
Quoting swingtrade65
{quote} I waited to see if it would retrace inside the channel, if not, oh well I just so happens the top of the channel was in the same area as the bottom of the green box which should now act as resistance. {image}
Do you generally like to wait for a retrace and then a bounce from support turned resistance & vice versa? I suppose this is more necessary following a large candle that could otherwise be a fakey.....
Quoting Zimbinga
{quote} That's pretty spooky as I was thinking of asking your view as to if there is a good PA signal then would you be more flexible in 'anticipating' the indis, which you have now answered thanks. In any event the 50 line seems much more important than the fast MA, although that helps with timing naturally. It's a good structure you have laid out for us with Roadmap & Daylight. I have basically carried over the Williams indis to Roadmap as I like the bias the channel crosses of 200 SMA can give in the right circumstances. It's a shame that for...
Yes, context is everything. Rules are there to be broken (in the right circumstances and when you fully realise why you are breaking them). For example, I often trade the -50 line but I also love catching crossovers of the fast and slow when the fast is coming back from 'extreme' levels (-20/-80).

In terms of 4H trading, we do have Yesterday's High/Low. Those levels will always be relevant, regardless of timeframe used. But I do know what you mean about ADR. Although it's less visually appealing and less help as a timing tool, it can still be used on 4H charts to pinpoint the expected highs or lows.

There is another tool you might want to have a play with. I've attached it below. It calculates 3 probability highs and 3 probability lows based on ATR. You can define the time period the levels are valid for (daily, weekly etc). Unfortunately it doesn't have a history function, so the only way to check how accurate it might be is to forward test.

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ATR probability levels.ex4   18 KB | 750 downloads
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Yes, context is everything. Rules are there to be broken (in the right circumstances and when you fully realise why you are breaking them). For example, I often trade the -50 line but I also love catching crossovers of the fast and slow when the fast is coming back from 'extreme' levels (-20/-80). In terms of 4H trading, we do have Yesterday's High/Low. Those levels will always be relevant, regardless of timeframe used. But I do know what you mean about ADR. Although it's less visually appealing and less help as a timing tool, it can still...
Muchas gracias Laura and I will experiment with the ATR probability levels.
Quoting Zimbinga
{quote} Muchas gracias Laura and I will experiment with the ATR probability levels.
Today was quiet across many instruments due to holiday etc but here are a couple of examples:

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Quoting Zimbinga
{quote} Do you generally like to wait for a retrace and then a bounce from support turned resistance & vice versa? I suppose this is more necessary following a large candle that could otherwise be a fakey.....
As a general rule I don't. I would much rather jump on a run away train. Yes, big range bars can be tricky I think
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
At the beginning of this thread Laura explained several exit methods.

Which one is the preferred and did someone already test these options?

Laura, what is your personal preference concerning exits and which entry method gave you the best results till now.

Which timeframe is really the best for this strategy by test?

Is there a specific pair on which this strategy performs best?

I know..a lot questions.. but maybe with great answers!!
Quoting baxter01
At the beginning of this thread Laura explained several exit methods. Which one is the preferred and did someone already test these options? Laura, what is your personal preference concerning exits and which entry method gave you the best results till now. Which timeframe is really the best for this strategy by test? Is there a specific pair on which this strategy performs best? I know..a lot questions.. but maybe with great answers!!
Don't take this as a personal attack because that is the furthest thing from my mind.
I am really, really trying to help you with my answers.
If I come across as harsh, I apologize! Laura can be the judge on that I guess
*Which one is preferred is YOUR choice...not anyone else
*Which timeframe is really the best? You are asking someone else to do a LOT of testing over many markets and you just show up and ask... they tell you a magic answer of 15 min timeframe and you make money. Sorry, wont happen
*Which pair is the best? The one that YOU learn to trade. Once again you are asking someone else to do all of your work for you. Rubbish mate. I simply cannot trade the Cable for shit.....but a lot of folks here do well with it....sooooo, I dont trade cable. You will find these answers for yourself as you trade the method.

Take the framework and make it fit for you because how I or anyone else trades it doesn't mean anything for you, I hope you truly understand that?

How many actual trades have you taken based on this method? What happened? Did you win or Lose? Why did you win or lose IN YOUR OPINION
If you are willing to do some work, we will all help you but you gotta get in the game and learn this stuff. Show us a chart with a completed trade that was a loser or a winner and we will walk through why it won or lost as a group. Sometimes there is no answer because the market has a mind of its own....move on to the next one.

Many pips!
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
Quoting swingtrade65
{quote} Don't take this as a personal attack because that is the furthest thing from my mind. I am really, really trying to help you with my answers. If I come across as harsh, I apologize! Laura can be the judge on that I guess *Which one is preferred is a YOUR choice...not anyone else *Which timeframe is really the best? You are asking someone else to do a LOT of testing over many markets and you just show up and ask... they tell you a magic answer of 15 min timeframe and you make money. Sorry, wont happen *Which pair is the best? The...

This is the best post I have read this month..... Many thanks

Forex is simple:
DO IT YOURSELF...... Everything we give or get here is just head-up.

Happy trading
Be Dumb and Follow Price
Quoting fxrabbi
{quote} This is the best post I have read this month..... Many thanks Forex is simple: DO IT YOURSELF. Happy trading
AW, you're so mean!!!



Attached Image
If you trade like me, you'll be homeless and broke within a week.
Texas-2-Step All Time Return: -1.0%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US30M15.png Size: 76 KB

Take it and run or leave it to run? that's the question!
From tiny pips mighty oaks grow
Quoting Erebus
{quote} AW, you're so mean!!! {image}
With this picture...... You're the baddest.

Many thanks
Be Dumb and Follow Price
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Today was quiet across many instruments due to holiday etc but here are a couple of examples: {image}{image}
Hi Laura,

Is this mladen ATR Probability Levels indicator?

Regards,
Quoting Boo15
{image} Take it and run or leave it to run? that's the question!
Given the USA holiday on Monday, there may be pent-up demand, and the market may surge when it does open.

What I would do is go back over the last few years of the DOW and see what happens to the market after a long weekend

If it was me, I would leave it run but obviously a tight stop, you can always get back in.

Good Luck
If you trade like me, you'll be homeless and broke within a week.
Texas-2-Step All Time Return: -1.0%
Quoting ellokko007
{quote} Hi Laura, Is this mladen ATR Probability Levels indicator? Regards,
Sure looks like it, not hard to find

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If you trade like me, you'll be homeless and broke within a week.
Texas-2-Step All Time Return: -1.0%
Quoting LauraT
{image} Dax short I took this morning. Wanted to highlight this trade to show that it's beneficial to have a degree of flexibility in relation to how we trade Daylight. I was trading 5m Aggressive mode and you'll see from the chart that the fast moving average was above the slow moving average. However, the slow moving average was below -50. A lower high had been made and support had been broken. I expected price to want to test Friday's Low (dotted line). There was a shakeout attempt, taking out that lower high but, crucially, the overnight structure...
Hello LauraT,
Please which broker do you use for indices?
thanks
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