Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Lol

Dempire1

to recover 500 Euro is super easy for you.

Next week you will get back you refund plus some profit.

I know your trading styles and confident you can get it back

Good luck

I would keep it personally, will retrace eventually at some point. In my trades I have no SL, dont like closing negative. I hold and wait. I have somy open buy at 1.40.
Of course it depends on your account size, leverage, whether you can hold if trend goes against you.

Trade safely

Interesting-yea, I pointed out this zone before the announcement, it was a powerful untested zone. I did not have the courage of my convictions though, I put in the buy before the announcement, locked it in quickly and predictably got stopped breakeven. And no way I could have foreseen a 100 pip rally.

A lot depends on the dxy next week, we did wick into weekly supply before rejecting. In the first instance I expect a retest so the dollar to rise and then probably reject off of the 92.5 area, at which point I'll look for buys on cable. DXY will nearly always retest a major TL so good idea to watch the supply which caused the TL break for a turnaround. 1.3759-1.3781 is looking good for a buy to me (some basing at 1.38 too, another level to watch), lets see what the PA suggests next week.

So sell first then buy lower down is my broad plan to start off the week. I think 1.39 is possible, but let's see

I'm looking for some reversal pattern/PA on these levels not just buying/selling blindly at them btw, for that 1.3740 level the price shot away a couple of times from it before NFP so looked good for a buy, plus it was in that HTF demand zone

Longer term.. i'm not sure. Will the dollar now reverse and continue trending down, or is this just a pullback commencing? There is something of a double bottom, or we may just go into a ranging period.. hard to say. What will the Fed do with tapering and how will this be handled? Will there be an unexpected reaction in the bond market ('taper tantrum')?

I have TP set at 13850 which should hit tonight. After which potentially a drop to test 138 again

Going for the Kill will not save you but avoiding the kill will save you...

Have you ever built up your equity by over 300% and have mountains of confidence only to be brought down to earth of massive loss and back to square one?

Have you ever sworn that you have understood the market and nothing else can surprise you then boom the market shocks you?

Have you ever trusted a trader and idolize the trader and yet the trader failed miserably and to the point that you think if the market can get such trader then you are not safe either?

The KILL is the MARGIN in collaboration with PRICE IRREGULARITIES...

The SAVE is the MONEY MANAGEMENT in collaboration with your DILIGENCE with HUMILITY...

* No matter how sure you are of the market direction, never go with full margin without protecting your equity.
* Never increase your lot size in proportion to your equity growth.
* Never trust in your abilities without second guessing the decisions.
* Never sell at oversold conditions or buy at overbought conditions without tight stops, as corrections may put your good trades in danger before it gets better.
* Never let your confidence lead to arrogance, in fact when your confidence is at extreme high level that's when you should take a break and remember the times you have lost in order to get humble again.

Cheers,
George.

George, such good advice! THANKS

I've experienced all of your points in my past trading journey.
I am back to trading again after many losses, and staying positive.
I would like to add to your posting is to avoid Overtrading and not to blindly follow others, but trade for your self, make yourcown decisions.

These two above things was a killer to my previous very succesful trades.

In learning process...

yes get back up from where you fell.
failure is the mother of success. lol.
keep on learning, one day it will just 'click'.
i might add the other pillars:
1. capital preservation
2. position sizing
3. risk management

No i continue to use it.....i'm using a multidisciplianal approach

a few chart with a weekly pivot that emphasizes the area between WS2 and the middle line between it and WS1
and this area is most likely that price can a reverse

I have questions from professional friends.
I'm looking for a news indicator that can give new numbers.
I searched but did not find it. If we weighed any kind of news, the sum of the weights of a currency will give a good signal based on the analysis.
I think it's either not something important that has not been made to date or there is another reason.
Do you think it is useful to build it?

Yep, watch for 92.832

Looking for reversal when it touches it.

in an ideal world ,this red bearish weekly will not break up

the symmetry did actually print if you look at those bodies,

trend is down based on the monthly + quarterly candles posted

I've guessed a tight channel, its a rough idea

On the Weekly nothing new to report. After the big red candle, and the inside (inverted hammer, but certainly not in the correct position to worry about), this week we have a red candle with long shadows, but nothing particularly important.



On the Daily we have an Engulfing. It signals us that the retracement we will have some power, but it shouldn't worry much. The power this candle shows signals that it could retrace above 1.40. But it is very difficult for the market to return to 1.42 after the consolidation that was done above 1.41



The area under 1.3740 was already highlighted on my chart, it was easy to expect a strong reaction in that area. There we had the double low between March and April. That's why I had the TP of my trade at that level.
For the psychology of the levels, down there, were still the Bulls from April, that pushed the Cable above 1.42 . Those same Bulls still believe in it, they were joined by other Bulls who saw the April reaction. All of them do it with the hope of push the price back to those levels again.
Obviously at the same level, some of the Bears who sold above 1.41 have closed their position, and are now waiting for the price to rise in order to sell again from a more advantageous position. Obviously I am with the Bears, and I await a good point to sell again.

All of this explains why we had such a strong reaction at 1.3730. And then the news helped ... but this is one of those cases where the news was "used" to move the market as it is more common to speculators

Now we need to focus on finding the best spot to go short. It is still too early to find it, the market will make it clear step by step as it approaches the top of its retracement. But we can analyze the possible reversal points that are visible for now



A - The area around 1.3930 is the lowest entry point. Too risky to enter before. There we have already seen the strength of the Bears. We will certainly have a reaction there and see the Bears enter. We cannot yet know however, if it is the best entry point to break below 1.3730, or if it is just a Sell that can give us 50/100 pips gain, before the Bulls take the price even higher.

B - Area 1.40, again. It is our best reference point given the strength it has shown in the past, and two weeks ago it was a perfect entry point. It may still be an entry point. Certainly there are a lot of Stop Losses above the last high of June 23rd. Breaking that level to take Stop Losses is a great entry point, where speculators find enough money to place their Shorts.

C - Area 1.4050 / 1.41. It is the zone where the downtrend accelerated last June 16th, after the FOMC. The price has not yet returned to that level to re-test it, certainly there are many open positions still introppled at that level. The market could go there looking for liquidity, before it can go down again and break 1.3730



On Wednesday another FOMC, but this is not as important as the one of June 16th (no economic projections, statistics and press conference). But now every moment is good to clarify news about a possible tapering (what big investors are waiting for)

Good luck to all

Very comprehensive, thank you for sharing.

I agree with you about the red Weekly candle.
But un H4 the downtrend has showed some weakness. In my opinion they may need to go a little higher to regain power

Anyway, anything can happen...

The weekend cable has dropped from +5 to -4 on IG very strange

where’s price

This is what is shown on my screen.

Not to bad to campare with Etoro last week had 50 pips spread during first 30 min after market opening

Below is non weekend and weekend GBP/USD.
I carry my trades over weekend on non weekend pair, perhaps is better option.

I think it’ll open below 1.38