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TDA with IMT

  • #221
  • Edited 6:08pm Jun 23, 2021 4:18pm | Edited 6:08pm
Quoting DrDave
If you have been considering or even developing NNs for trading strategy optimization, perhaps this study will help you decide if you think that DOE may offer a simpler alternative to the NN approach. {image}
Hi. DOE and NN are not alternatives in the field of trading strategy optimisation. DOE is an efficient grid search technology, and it seeks one local optimum amongst many. Why he doesn't consider a genetic algorithm is troubling. They are very good at finding global optimum.

If NN were an iceberg, this rather important field under consideration would be the tip of the tip..

And -

The author, despite claiming to have a PhD, struggles with statistics. "There aren’t enough degrees of freedom in the model for very much statistical power. However, some tentative findings are possible."

No, when there are insufficient degrees of freedom there is no possibility of any findings that would be accepted as worth a second look. To suggest otherwise demonstrates a profound disdain of robust statistical method.

Look at the t-stats. All show no significance. But that is also a very flawed metric in a study of this nature and alarm bells ought to ring - there are far too many variables. Would probably need several thousand observations (not to be confused with data points, ie, days in the study).

Trading rules are at least factorial - n!, rather than additive. 5 rules = 120 possibilities. I know that's difficult to understand, but is bare minimum, a baseline. In reality, only then comes the grid search of the sample space.

This bloke is some consultant of sorts to hedge funds. Draw your own conclusions.

I'd read the other stuff referred to were I satisfied there was any merit in this study. I know of Larry Connors many fairly marginal ideas and attempts to make them appear legitimate. In one similar study which didn't include the VIX there were (at least) 720 parameters and just 79 trades. Yeah, overall positive result with the one optimised combination (not necessarily the global optimum by any means of course, a lucky intuitive guess - in a secular bull market everyone's a genius buying on dips).
  • #222
  • Jun 25, 2021 12:46am Jun 25, 2021 12:46am
Sir do you mind sharing the week background count indicator...
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  • #223
  • Jun 26, 2021 12:30pm Jun 26, 2021 12:30pm
GBPUSD
For WEEK26 of 2021

For day trading
Direction bias: down
Control: MN1
Action: M1 through H8; M1 through M30 are of special interest at the start of the week

Although the direction bias remains down, H4 is due to swing up. However, with the reminder that change comes from below and progresses upward, note that not even M1 has ended its down swing yet, and is overdue to swing up.

Even though M5 and smaller TFs are overdue to swing up, the M30 is in a down continuation that still has room to move further down. Therefore, M1 through M30 will be monitored closely as the week begins.
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  • #224
  • Jun 28, 2021 12:06am Jun 28, 2021 12:06am
Quoting DrDave
GBPUSD For WEEK26 of 2021 For day trading Direction bias: down Control: MN1 Action: M1 through H8; M1 through M30 are of special interest at the start of the week Although the direction bias remains down, H4 is due to swing up. However, with the reminder that change comes from below and progresses upward, note that not even M1 has ended its down swing yet, and is overdue to swing up. Even though M5 and smaller TFs are overdue to swing up, the M30 is in a down continuation that still has room to move further down. Therefore, M1 through M30 will be...
M5 and smaller TFs are overdue to swing up,
GBPUSD follow up
As the new week starts, the upswings have progressed through the H2 already.

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  • #225
  • Jun 28, 2021 5:39am Jun 28, 2021 5:39am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} M5 and smaller TFs are overdue to swing up, GBPUSD follow up As the new week starts, the upswings have progressed through the H2 already. {image}
GBPUSD follow up

And now the upswings have progressed to H4.
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Did you harvest pips on any lower TF up continuations?
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  • #226
  • Jun 29, 2021 2:04pm Jun 29, 2021 2:04pm
GBPUSD update

Yesterday, the day ended with the H4/H8 making a swing up but failing to enter an upswing as prices fell again.

Today, the rallies began their progression upwards from the lower TFs and reached the H1 but failed to advance any further and price once again fell, with a continuation sell on H1 at the red Vline. (Also marked on M30 as the left-most red Vline.)

Another round of rallies then advanced to M30 but were not continued to H1, and yet another continuation sell seen on M30 at the right-most Vline.

When this new price drop ended and the rallies once again commenced, they have thus far advance to the H1 that is now due to end. Will this be yet another failure of the rallies to advance beyond H1, or will the uptrends continue their advance?

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  • #227
  • Jul 3, 2021 11:47am Jul 3, 2021 11:47am
GBPUSD
Important long-term follow up

In the Top Down Analysis presented before the start of 2021 Week1, the following was posted, "Because we are in a rather long-term down move via the Year2+ turning down, with rallies still due on MN8 and higher TFs ... "
The MN8 now has a confirmed 3-bar swing low, signaling the start of the rally.
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  • #228
  • Jul 4, 2021 6:51am Jul 4, 2021 6:51am
GBPUSD
For WEEK27 of 2021

For day trading
Direction bias: down
Control: MN1
Action: M15 through D1; M5 through H1 are of special interest at the start of the week.

The latest D1 swing down is overdue to end. The new up swing on H4 is likely the start of an up trend that can lead to the end of the D1 down trend. The H4 has a confirmed 3-bar swing low that supports this view.

However, H1 has a confirmed swing high in place, so will likely make a pullback that will stall the H4 up swing. If the pullback remains a normal pullback, then the up continuation will see the H4 continue its up swing.

The M15/M30 have turned down, supporting this view of the H1 likely to make a pullback.
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  • #229
  • Jul 5, 2021 3:32am Jul 5, 2021 3:32am
GBPUSD follow up

Quoting DrDave
GBPUSD For WEEK27 of 2021 H1 has a confirmed swing high in place, so will likely make a pullback that will stall the H4 up swing. If the pullback remains a normal pullback, then the up continuation will see the H4 continue its up swing.
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The power of IMT: Expectation met of H1 pullback to stall H4, then H4 up continuation.
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  • #230
  • Jul 11, 2021 3:48pm Jul 11, 2021 3:48pm
GBPUSD
For WEEK28 of 2021

For day trading
Direction bias: down
Control: MN1
Action: M1 through D1; M1 through M15 are of special interest at the start of the week.

There is an expectation for the H4 to fall soon. However, although all TFs below H4 are overdue to fall, a down trend has not yet been confirmed even on M1. Therefore, there is potential for the current upswing to continue even further, so will need to monitor the lowest TFs to determine which route the market chooses at the start of the week.
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  • #231
  • Jul 12, 2021 1:46am Jul 12, 2021 1:46am
GBPUSD follow up
Quoting DrDave
GBPUSD For WEEK28 of 2021 M1 through M15 are of special interest at the start of the week. there is potential for the current upswing to continue even further, so will need to monitor the lowest TFs to determine which route the market chooses at the start of the week.
On this M15 TF, the white Vline marks the beginning of week28. It is clear that there was a failed attempt to go into a down trend that subsequently moved priced to a new high. From this swing high, price fell and has gone into a down trend that has been able to swing down TFs as high as the H2.
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  • #232
  • Jul 14, 2021 3:40am Jul 14, 2021 3:40am
GBPUSD follow up

Yesterday, IMT traders saw H8 turn down early in the day, and began tracking the dynamic focus TF, looking for suitable rallies to sell.

When the focus moved to H1, a sell entry was signaled at the open of the bar marked with the red Vline, ending, as usual, in profit.

Note that the TDI has not yet made green cross red down, but the green has a good angle, reflecting the large price difference between the swing high bar and the subsequent bar.

And of course, the more aggressive IMT traders had already entered sells during the previous hour, based on M15 and M30.
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  • #233
  • Jul 14, 2021 3:57am Jul 14, 2021 3:57am
GBPUSD follow up

Yesterday, as the H8 down swing continued, the H16 also turned down. Therefore, attention turned once again to lower TFs to monitor the dynamic focus TF, checking to see how far up the TFs the rallies would progress, giving more selling opportunities.

Today, the focus TF has moved to H4, and IMT traders simply check for the end of the rally to begin looking for sell continuation setups.
Of course, the more experienced IMT traders note that the volatility is sufficiently high to warrant looking for counter-trend buying opportunities during this rally.
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  • #234
  • Jul 14, 2021 7:35am Jul 14, 2021 7:35am
GBPUSD

With IMT, we have high probability entries by knowing the focus TF. However, this does not guarantee that there will not be floating drawdown. But with IMT, we also locate the "proper" location for a SL, which is typically much farther from entry than other systems would use, enabling price considerable room to move within before reaching the target.
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  • #235
  • Jul 18, 2021 2:54pm Jul 18, 2021 2:54pm
GBPUSD
For WEEK29 of 2021

For day trading
Direction bias: down. However, expect the week to begin with rallies to this big down trend.
Control: MN1
Action: M1 through H4; M1 through M15 are of special interest at the start of the week to see how the rallies progress.

ALL TFs from MN1 down to M1 ended Week 28 in a down swing. Therefore, at the start of Week 29, will be watching for the upswings to begin on M1 and progress upward through the TFs.

The H8 is due to turn up and the H4 is overdue. Because H4 is overdue to swing up, will expect action on M1-H4.
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  • #236
  • Jul 20, 2021 8:57am Jul 20, 2021 8:57am
GBPUSD update

There have already been several rallies that failed to continue past the M30 TF, presenting selling opportunities. Now, a rally progressed to the H2 TF and also failed, resenting yet another selling opportunity.

The sell based on the H2 focus TF is indicated on the M15 chart.

Follow the dynamic FOCUS TF and look for valid setups.
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  • #237
  • Jul 20, 2021 9:18am Jul 20, 2021 9:18am
Hello, do you now have arrows for the HMA?
  • #238
  • Jul 25, 2021 12:54pm Jul 25, 2021 12:54pm
GBPUSD
For WEEK30 of 2021

For day trading

Direction bias: down. However, the D1 upswing is likely to present buy continuations.
Control: MN1
Action: M1 through H8; M1 through M15 are of special interest at the start of the week to see if support holds or is broken.

The week ended with all TFs from H8 and below in down swings.
H4/H8 have started a pullback.

Will need to monitor M1/M5 as Week 30 begins to see if the support area, clearly seen on M15, holds and the H4/H8 turn back up for buy continuations, or the support is broken and H8 falls further as sell continuations on small TFs develop.
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  • #239
  • Jul 26, 2021 9:03am Jul 26, 2021 9:03am
Quoting DrDave
GBPUSD For WEEK30 of 2021 For day trading Direction bias: down. However, the D1 upswing is likely to present buy continuations. Control: MN1 Action: M1 through H8; M1 through M15 are of special interest at the start of the week to see if support holds or is broken. The week ended with all TFs from H8 and below in down swings. H4/H8 have started a pullback. Will need to monitor M1/M5 as Week 30 begins to see if the support area, clearly seen on M15, holds and the H4/H8 turn back up for buy continuations, or the support is broken and H8 falls further...
the D1 upswing is likely to present buy continuations.
see if the support area, clearly seen on M15, holds and the H4/H8 turn back up for buy continuations

You be the judge ...
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  • #240
  • Edited 8:34am Jul 27, 2021 6:03am | Edited 8:34am
With IMT, we examine multiple TFs and assess likely developments.
Late yesterday, I posted about GBPUSD H4 up swing:
Quoting DrDave
{quote} That up move has likely run its course and is heading into a pullback. The question is, how far up the TFs will the pullback progress? Highly likely to H1, likely to H2, possible but not very likely to H4.
And what has transpired? Price went less than 2 pips above the "momentum" bar and then the smaller TFs began to retrace one-by-one, reaching H1, H2, and yes, even to H4, but no further. And IMT traders waiting to make continuation buys after H2 ending have already moved up to the H4.

No EAs, no guessing involved: Just FOLLOWING where the TFs lead and WAITING for the confirmation to make an entry.

With IMT, successful trading is a breeze.

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