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Attachments: TDA with IMT
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TDA with IMT

GBPUSD
For WEEK15 of 2021

The bigger picture
The upswing on MN1 has ended within the time range posted at the start of the year. Because we are in a rather long-term down move via the Year2+ turning down with rallies still due on MN8 and higher TFs, if the MN1 pullback follows through, it is expected to last 5-8 months and is likely to reach around 1.26, but could reach to about 1.2. Then a subsequent up swing to the 1.35 to 1.45 area.

For day trading
Direction bias: down
Control: MN1
Action: M1 through D2

M1 has the focus.

Although H4 and H8 are due to swing up, there is not yet an indication on M1 of the down swing ending. Therefore, as the market opens this week, will be concentrated on the lowest TFs and the D2 to determine if the pullback goes too far.

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Quoting DrDave
GBPUSD For WEEK15 of 2021 Although H4 and H8 are due to swing up, there is not yet an indication on M1 of the down swing ending. Therefore, as the market opens this week, will be concentrated on the lowest TFs and the D2 to determine if the pullback goes too far.
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Sunday, there was an attempt to end the down swing. The subsequent down continuation lasted until a bit before the Frankfurt open (and did not go too far, so the D2 pullback remains in-tact), from which a significant up move has developed, already traveling nearly 100 pips.

Although the H4 upswing is not yet confirmed, H2 has swung up, indicating that it is highly likely the H4 swing will be confirmed within a couple of hours.
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GBPUSD
For WEEK16 of 2021

For day trading
Direction bias: down. However, larger TFs may provide buying opportunities as well.
Control: MN1 down bias
Action: M1 through D2

M5 has the focus

W1/W2 down swing is in position to end, with the D1 swing up at the end of week 15 likely the beginning of this W1/W2 reversal.

D1/D2 rally from week 15 does not yet show confirmation on smaller TFs that it is ending. This could result in price moving higher at the start of the week, then cycling of lower TFs with attempts to reverse the rally.
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GBPUSD
For WEEK21 of 2021

For day trading
Direction bias: down
Control: MN1 down bias
Action: M15 through D2

D2 is overdue to fall. This view is supported by the H8 likely beginning a down continuation after a rally to a lower top (ignoring the stop hunt spike).

The H8 down swing is supported by the H1 making a strong down swing that is yet to make a convincing rally.

M15 is in a confirmed downtrend and currently running a down continuation.
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Quoting DrDave
GBPUSD For WEEK21 of 2021 For day trading Direction bias: down Control: MN1 down bias Action: M15 through D2 D2 is overdue to fall. This view is supported by the H8 likely beginning a down continuation after a rally to a lower top (ignoring the stop hunt spike). The H8 down swing is supported by the H1 making a strong down swing that is yet to make a convincing rally. M15 is in a confirmed downtrend and currently running a down continuation.
H1 making a strong down swing that is yet to make a convincing rally
H1 (and H2) rallied and then made the EXPECTED down continuation.

Do you even need PRICE BARS to make a good entry? Look at the red dotted Vline placed at the H2 line turning down of the multi-TF-IMT indicator. Why was the (H1)H2 rally and down continuation EXPECTED? Check what the H8 line was TELLING you ...
(And for the skeptics that declare that this is a single instance, correct, it is a single instance, but it represents what occurs OVER AND OVER when you perform a Top Down Analysis with Intrinsic Market Timing.)
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And now let's reveal the price bars and see if the open of the next bar was a good entry to harvest 10 pips. BINGO!
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It's not rocket science, folks. It's really just follow the leader.

By the way, the lower indicator window holds the TDI. Looks like green cross red down was a good signal to evaluate if there is a sell entry.
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Quoting DrDave
{quote} H1 making a strong down swing that is yet to make a convincing rally H1 (and H2) rallied and then made the EXPECTED down continuation. Do you even need PRICE BARS to make a good entry? Look at the red dotted Vline placed at the H2 line turning down of the multi-TF-IMT indicator. Why was the (H1)H2 rally and down continuation EXPECTED? Check what the H8 line was TELLING you ... (And for the skeptics that declare that this is a single instance, correct, it is a single instance, but it represents what occurs OVER AND OVER when you perform a...
it represents what occurs OVER AND OVER when you perform a Top Down Analysis with Intrinsic Market Timing.
In fact, simply look to the left in that image and see the H8 in an up swing (colored green) and the H2 make a pullback followed by a BUY continuation. NO PRICE BARS REQUIRED!!

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Also note how the TDI makes green cross red up to signal you to evaluate if there is a buy entry.
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GBPUSD
For WEEK22 of 2021

For day trading
Direction bias: down
Control: MN1
Action: M15 through D2

W2 has the focus.

W2 remains in a rally and now due to drop. However, lower TFs have not completed enough cycling to end moving higher.

Although H4 is currently in a pullback, it is due to end. There is still more room down if either the sellers take control or if enough of the current buy positions are closed to take profits.

H1/H2 are of particular interest at the start of the new week. A lower top would favor price moving lower. But at the end of week21, H1 had the first sign of turning down whereas H2 remains up. If price continues lower and turns down H2, the H4 pullback could continue down further.
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GBPUSD
For WEEK23 of 2021

For day trading
Direction bias: down
Control: MN1
Action: M5 through H4, then H1 through D2

Starting week 23, it is important to analyze all of the TFs and how they inter-relate, because the smaller TFs are going down, yet larger TFs are going up. For traders that make an analysis based on one or two TFs, this can lead to a quandary about which direction to trade, or lead to trading against the trend of a more dominant TF.

With a Top Down Analysis using Intrinsic Market Timing, the direction and importance of each TF becomes clear, and decisions about which TFs to trade and which direction become obvious.

Still watching behavior of W1 rally that is overdue to end.

D2 is overdue to fall and has a confirmed swing high.

D1 is 4 bars into the downswing and lower TFs have enough cycles that that this swing can end and a rally begin. The rally beginning is supported by the H8 starting an upswing.

However, the H1 has already ended its new upswing and is well into a pullback that will likely take down H2 as well.

M15 (and M30) appears to be starting its down continuation to this H1 pullback that could continue to the 1.413 support area.
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Quoting DrDave
GBPUSD For WEEK23 of 2021 For day trading Direction bias: down Control: MN1 Action: M5 through H4, then H1 through D2 Starting week 23, it is important to analyze all of the TFs and how they inter-relate, because the smaller TFs are going down, yet larger TFs are going up. For traders that make an analysis based on one or two TFs, this can lead to a quandary about which direction to trade, or lead to trading against the trend of a more dominant TF. With a Top Down Analysis using Intrinsic Market Timing, the direction and importance of each TF becomes...
the H1 has already ended its new upswing and is well into a pullback that will likely take down H2 as well. M15 (and M30) appears to be starting its down continuation to this H1 pullback that could continue to the 1.413 support area.

For traders with price feeds that do not include Sunday, buyers interrupted the down move and took price high enough to swing H1 into a continuation. Price went higher about 25 pips, but was confirmed to have failed early Monday, resetting the view to the M1.

As seen on the image, this new round of cycling returned the down bias and both M15 and M30 turned down, followed by both TFs making a rally, then the down continuation that continued down even past the 1.413 support area, resulting in turning down even the H4.
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Quoting DrDave
GBPUSD For WEEK23 of 2021 For day trading Direction bias: down Control: MN1 Action: M5 through H4, then H1 through D2 Starting week 23, it is important to analyze all of the TFs and how they inter-relate, because the smaller TFs are going down, yet larger TFs are going up. For traders that make an analysis based on one or two TFs, this can lead to a quandary about which direction to trade, or lead to trading against the trend of a more dominant TF. With a Top Down Analysis using Intrinsic Market Timing, the direction and importance of each TF becomes...
D1 is 4 bars into the downswing and lower TFs have enough cycles that that this swing can end and a rally begin. The rally beginning is supported by the H8 starting an upswing.

Today the H4 made a pullback that did not reach any higher TFs, then an up continuation. This up move is simply taking the H8 even higher, as was expected from the weekend Top Down Analysis. The H16 has also turned up, and if price continues further up, it is likely that the D1 will have a confirmed upswing at the close today, beginning it's rally that was also expected this week from the weekend analysis.
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GBPUSD
For WEEK24 of 2021

For day trading
Direction bias: down
Control: MN1
Action: M15 through H8

At the start of week 24, M15 is of special interest due to the extreme down spike that was painted. Because H1/H2 are expected to rally against higher TFs, M15/M30 need to produce uptrends. Because M15 has produced such an extreme spike, it can still continue down for a more "normal" appearing pullback followed by the up continuation swing. Will simply need to monitor the M15/M30 and determine from what is actually painted in real time if a further pullback forms or if what has already painted is all there is to it.

Attached Image
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Quoting DrDave
GBPUSD For WEEK24 of 2021 For day trading Direction bias: down Control: MN1 Action: M15 through H8 At the start of week 24, M15 is of special interest due to the extreme down spike that was painted. Because H1/H2 are expected to rally against higher TFs, M15/M30 need to produce uptrends. Because M15 has produced such an extreme spike, it can still continue down for a more "normal" appearing pullback followed by the up continuation swing. Will simply need to monitor the M15/M30 and determine from what is actually painted in real time if a further...
Follow up
H1/H2 are expected to rally against higher TFs
And there it is, H1/H2 rally followed by the down continuation. The weekend Top Down Analysis with Intrinsic Market Timing at work.
Attached Image
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Quoting DrDave
{quote} Follow up H1/H2 are expected to rally against higher TFs And there it is, H1/H2 rally followed by the down continuation. The weekend Top Down Analysis with Intrinsic Market Timing at work. {image}
Follow up
And after the H1/H2, H4 comes next, and look at lower TFs for that H4 rally to end so that you can look for conditions to sell the down continuation.

With IMT, you know which TFs to be examining for entries based on the TF that is next to "move".
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Quoting DrDave
{quote} Follow up And after the H1/H2, H4 comes next, and look at lower TFs for that H4 rally to end so that you can look for conditions to sell the down continuation. With IMT, you know which TFs to be examining for entries based on the TF that is next to "move". {image}
With IMT, you know which TFs to be examining for entries based on the TF that is next to "move".
Follow up.
And, as the next step after H4 in the change moving from the bottom upward, the H8 begins its rally.
ATR running in the range of 15-20 pips, so this rally can be evaluated for counter-trend buys.
Attached Image
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GBPUSD
For WEEK25 of 2021

For day trading
Direction bias: down
Control: MN1
Action: M5 through H8

On Friday, a small H4 rally ended followed by a significant down continuation. During this continuation, rallies occurred through H1, trying to stop the down swing. At the close of the week, cycling had progressed with a new (weak) rally beginning on M5, confirmed with TDI crossing up. This leads to watching at the start of the new week the M5 and higher TFs to see if the rallies can progress to the H4/H8, or if the required up trends on the lower TFs will fail and the cycling reset to M1.

For each TF that fails in the upward progression, the resets to M1 will result in sideways moves or even price continuing to new lows until rallies begin anew.
Attached Image
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Quoting DrDave
GBPUSD For WEEK25 of 2021 For day trading Direction bias: down Control: MN1 Action: M5 through H8 On Friday, a small H4 rally ended followed by a significant down continuation. During this continuation, rallies occurred through H1, trying to stop the down swing. At the close of the week, cycling had progressed with a new (weak) rally beginning on M5, confirmed with TDI crossing up. This leads to watching at the start of the new week the M5 and higher TFs to see if the rallies can progress to the H4/H8, or if the required up trends on the lower TFs...
This leads to watching at the start of the new week the M5 and higher TFs to see if the rallies can progress to the H4/H8.
And here is a view of the M15 with 2 possible BUY entries using TDI. Note that this activity on M15 results in an upswing on H1. How far up the TFs will the rallies progress?
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Many people believe that volume-based indicators for Forex are of little, if any, value to retail traders because true volume is not available. Instead of real volume, "tick volume" is used. Attached is a study that compares actual traded volume to "tick volume" and makes a correlation analysis.

The take-away:
"It is clear from the results illustrated that there is a definite and constant correlation between trade volume in any hour and the number of tick updates within that time."

The full article includes plots and correlation values.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Marney_2011_VulumeVSticks.pdf   552 KB | 259 downloads
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GBPUSD follow up

From the weekend Top Down Analysis:
This leads to watching at the start of the new week the M5 and higher TFs to see if the rallies can progress to the H4/H8.

At the end of last week, the M5 had rallied, so this week, we started by looking for rallies to progress up through the TFs, possibly reaching to H8. The rallies indeed continued from M5, and definitely reached the H4. Even the H8 is on the first step of the rally with a confirmed swing low.

IMT traders know which TFs to check so that they can do routine pip harvesting by playing follow the leader.

Attached Image
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Using neural networks (NN) for a variety of optimization or recognition tasks has become a very popular area of study. In many cases, simpler alternatives exist, including various statistical methods, that produce results of sufficiently good quality that they should be considered in place of or run currently with neural networks.

One valuable statistical approach is the use of Design of Experiments (DOE). DOE is typically a better choice than NNs when examining the time and resources required in the setting up and run times. In addition, NNs require training whereas no training is involved in DOE.

Attached is a study that used DOE to optimize certain parameters of a published trading strategy. If you have been considering or even developing NNs for trading strategy optimization, perhaps this study will help you decide if you think that DOE may offer a simpler alternative to the NN approach.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Schoenberg_design_of_experiments_trading_strategy_optimization.pdf   442 KB | 271 downloads
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