It took a while, but 64m has finally joined the rallies!
Even TDI lovers can see it.
Even TDI lovers can see it.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Member | 8,457 Posts
Overnight, EURUSD 64m rally ended and the down continuation commenced. Today, the 128m has joined the rallies. Do you dare to try some counter-trend buys??
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Member | 8,457 Posts
Overnight, EURUSD 64m rally ended and the down continuation commenced. Today, the 128m has joined the rallies. Do you dare to try some counter-trend buys?? {image}
Note that subsequently, a significant pullback has ensued that thus far has reached the 64m. Now looking at smaller TFs to signal the end of the pullback to look for continuation buys.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Member | 8,457 Posts
With IMT, you know the focus TF and are not misled by strong swings on TFs smaller than the focus TF.
As can be seen today on the 256m TF, it joined the pullbacks and has subsequently commenced the up continuation, so looking for buy opportunity.
Had to step out a couple of hours and now see that the pullbacks continued to progress through the 128m, and highly likely that when 256m closes, if it is above 1.0397, will join the pullbacks. If the close is lower than that, then the down continuation has kicked in.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Member | 8,457 Posts
GBPUSD
For WEEK 38 of 2022
For day trading
Direction bias: Large TFs: down. However, they are extremely overdue to turn up.
Smaller TF: Looking for up trends to begin large TF reversals.
Control: H4
Action: m1 through m32; m16 through H2 are of special interest at the start of the week. H4-H16 may be of interest as the week progresses.
For WEEK 38 of 2022
For day trading
Direction bias: Large TFs: down. However, they are extremely overdue to turn up.
Smaller TF: Looking for up trends to begin large TF reversals.
Control: H4
Action: m1 through m32; m16 through H2 are of special interest at the start of the week. H4-H16 may be of interest as the week progresses.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Member | 8,457 Posts
GBPUSD For WEEK 38 of 2022 For day trading Direction bias: Large TFs: down. However, they are extremely overdue to turn up. Smaller TF: Looking for up trends to begin large TF reversals. Control: H4 Action: m1 through m32; m16 through H2 are of special interest at the start of the week. H4-H16 may be of interest as the week progresses.
ll it be an H4 pullback, or yet another down continuation?
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Member | 8,457 Posts
{quote} As can be seen clearly on H1, GBPUSD started the week with H4 falling without much of a fight. Now looking below H1 to see how the down move develops: Will it be an H4 pullback, or yet another down continuation? {image} {image}
(Personally, the volatility was too low for me to open any trades, likely due to the British bank holiday.)
H4 made the up continuation as its attempt to turn up the extremely overdue MN1 TF, and it was strong enough that even H8 joined in the up swing, but not a strong enough move to snare H16.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Member | 8,457 Posts
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Member | 8,457 Posts
GBPUSD
For WEEK 39 of 2022
For day trading
Direction bias: down.
Really not much to say for the coming week, because of all TFs being down. Because change comes form the smaller TFs and propagates upward, must now watch M1 at the start of the week and see if rallies lead to any worthwhile buying opportunities, or if they become only more rallies in the continuing major down trend.
As it stands at the moment, smaller TFs have not completed sufficient cycles for this pullback to be ending yet. However, this rally certainly looks more promising as the beginning of an up trend than the rally seen on September 22 that had a failed pullback.
GBPUSD remains as a preferred trading pair over EURUSD.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Member | 8,457 Posts
GBPUSD
For WEEK 41 of 2022
For day trading
Direction bias: Large TFs (above Weekly): down. However, they are extremely overdue to turn up.
Smaller TFs: Watching to see if up trends can progress toward ending 1D down swing.
Control: 2D
Action: 1m through 2h; 32m is of special interest at the start of the week.
MN
Extremely over due to rally. It will need to close above 1.1738 to end the down swing.
1D/2D
The current pullback must end with its lowest close above 1.1055 or it is a failure.
32m
This is the furthest TF to which the upswings have progressed that are attempts to end the 1D pullback. This is rather far from 1D, so it is likely that there will be at least one failure. TFs below 32m will be monitored to see if they support or invalidate the upward progression.
For WEEK 41 of 2022
For day trading
Direction bias: Large TFs (above Weekly): down. However, they are extremely overdue to turn up.
Smaller TFs: Watching to see if up trends can progress toward ending 1D down swing.
Control: 2D
Action: 1m through 2h; 32m is of special interest at the start of the week.
MN
Extremely over due to rally. It will need to close above 1.1738 to end the down swing.
1D/2D
The current pullback must end with its lowest close above 1.1055 or it is a failure.
32m
This is the furthest TF to which the upswings have progressed that are attempts to end the 1D pullback. This is rather far from 1D, so it is likely that there will be at least one failure. TFs below 32m will be monitored to see if they support or invalidate the upward progression.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Member | 8,457 Posts
Attached is a PDF with a study of predicting financial time series using supervised learning and chaos theory. Examples using Forex instruments are included.
From the Conclusion: "The predictive power of The Prophet is not an issue here, but the results were good, and interesting in that the performance was exceptional over the first half hour and thereafter increasingly bad. Many mechanisms could be proposed for this, but the chaotic nature of the series has to be the most likely."
From the Conclusion: "The predictive power of The Prophet is not an issue here, but the results were good, and interesting in that the performance was exceptional over the first half hour and thereafter increasingly bad. Many mechanisms could be proposed for this, but the chaotic nature of the series has to be the most likely."
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Member | 8,457 Posts
A look at what progressed during the week.
The upper and bottom images are from this weekend. The middle image is from the previous weekend. Note Heiken-Ashi bars are displayed.
The 1D/2D pullback that was underway at the end of the prior week continued into this week, then ended with a confirmed swing low and an up continuation in progress. Friday's regular price bar was a down bar with the close near the low. However, it is an inside bar, so the upswing is not negated. If the upswing remains intact, it would not be a surprise to see price reach 1.16.
As things stand currently, smaller TFs point to the down move continuing further at the start of the week. Therefore, it will be important to monitor the progression of the upswings through the TFs starting from 1m. Note that Friday ended with 1m, 2m, and 4m in confirmed up swings.
The upper and bottom images are from this weekend. The middle image is from the previous weekend. Note Heiken-Ashi bars are displayed.
The 1D/2D pullback that was underway at the end of the prior week continued into this week, then ended with a confirmed swing low and an up continuation in progress. Friday's regular price bar was a down bar with the close near the low. However, it is an inside bar, so the upswing is not negated. If the upswing remains intact, it would not be a surprise to see price reach 1.16.
As things stand currently, smaller TFs point to the down move continuing further at the start of the week. Therefore, it will be important to monitor the progression of the upswings through the TFs starting from 1m. Note that Friday ended with 1m, 2m, and 4m in confirmed up swings.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Member | 8,457 Posts
For week 1 of 2023
The bigger picture
In 2021, there was a rally of the MN8 TF followed by a down continuation through September of 2022. Since then, MN1 has begun another rally. The current view suggest that this MN1 upswing is just another rally in the bigger down trend, so is not likely to go beyond 1.30.
For day trading
MN1 is the control TF with up bias.
W1 is the focus TF with down bias.
M1 through H1 are TFs of interest where action is expected for moving H1 down.
There is an expectation for D1/D2 to rally soon, stalling the W1 down swing. This is supported by the H4 confirmed swing low. However, before this rally can get underway, the H1 and smaller TFs must complete some down cycling.
Therefore, it is expected at the start for the week that small TFs are under a down bias, favoring selling opportunities, and when they complete the down move and begin cycling back up, H4 through D1 will move into an up bias for buying opportunities.
Attachment 4363686 
The bigger picture
In 2021, there was a rally of the MN8 TF followed by a down continuation through September of 2022. Since then, MN1 has begun another rally. The current view suggest that this MN1 upswing is just another rally in the bigger down trend, so is not likely to go beyond 1.30.
For day trading
MN1 is the control TF with up bias.
W1 is the focus TF with down bias.
M1 through H1 are TFs of interest where action is expected for moving H1 down.
There is an expectation for D1/D2 to rally soon, stalling the W1 down swing. This is supported by the H4 confirmed swing low. However, before this rally can get underway, the H1 and smaller TFs must complete some down cycling.
Therefore, it is expected at the start for the week that small TFs are under a down bias, favoring selling opportunities, and when they complete the down move and begin cycling back up, H4 through D1 will move into an up bias for buying opportunities.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Member | 8,457 Posts
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Member | 8,457 Posts
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Member | 8,457 Posts
Yesterday, I posted this nformation for what was expected for today.
Note that as seen in the capture below of H4 and M15 that H4 was indeed in control of the up bias and smaller TFs made pullbacks for buy continuations for all of the Londoin session.
IMT rarely steers me wrong.
08 January 2023 The various TFs examined together give valuable insight into what is likely to unfold.
For day trading
at Monday's start, H4 can be given temporary control status and M2 the focus.
M1 is important to watch from the start on Monday to see if it continues cycling down and higher TFs join the down cycling or if it breaks into cycling higher to try to move the H4 further up.
IMT rarely steers me wrong.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T