Cable Update (GBPUSD)

I dont think we need to trust COT reports only?

Just doing weekend analysis now as work has picked up a notch.
USD monthly suggests to me it could be heading up for a retest before continuing down.
GU has a daily hanging man and could bring 1.4 into view.
God bless

I think you need to read what i wrote again. Non commercials.

Interesting chart Moty
What are those blue and red things?

The image I provided earlier also includes non-commercial information.

New weekly forecast

No...

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

Nice bouncing , well we will have interesting week next.
Trade wisely and take your profit when it does

Summary
Another sub 13week awr week just ended-just 67% of it traveled (127pips) as price ranged all week, and this is particularly visible on the 4hr chart. After Thursday's >30day adr range Friday was back to recent ways @ just 77% of that figure which in pip terms is currently @ 93.

Closing technical conditions
Friday was the effective end of the month unless something extraordinary happens on Monday which is both a Uk and U.s Bank Hol. It is very likely though that the Mthly candle will close bullishly, an upside follow thru off April's doji, and this will create a 3rd consecutive HL @ 3669. This t/f remains bullish although no HH has been printed off the 1410 lo yet. (3482 was a LH, and 4242 a H.)

The Wkly candle closed bullishly (4th consecutively,) and the t/f remains in a general fractal uptrend. Starting @ 3669 the last few fractal prints have been L, LH, HL, and what - when it forms fractally will be a H.
Friday's Dly candle closed akin to a hanging-man but Thursday's Hi was higher so not a true example of that type of candle. The t/f remains in a general fractal uptrend despite Thursday printing what is now a L (@ 4091) on that t/f below it's last 2 x HL's @ 4110 and 4099, before the big move up off that 4091 L.
The 4Hr t/f is classically ranging, the majority of price action happening between 4212 and 4110. Thursday saw first a false 1st downside break to 4091 before a false 1st upside break to 4118.

The 10/20/50 ema's from 15min - Wkly t/f's close the week crossed up, and neutral on 5min.

What next?
As always, no one knows for sure, although we are not short of prophets on this site. Unless they have very large sample empirical evidence to suggest a certain candle/candle sequence/technical study (s) on a particular t/f (s) shows that the greater probability of an upside or downside move on this instrument is x %, then their forecast (s) as to future near-term price discovery be must fundamentally based, and I doubt that they have. I also doubt that we have on this site very many good fundie traders as they will almost certainly lack the research capability/resources to effect a long-term large sample proven edge, that institutions who trade this way have. Some do it for a bit of fun, some think they need to know what is going to happen next to make money at trading (they don't,) so it compels them to pick a side/bias based on very little - nothing. So beware, however forcefully / authoritatively they may put it - they are almost certainly kidding themselves and potentially worse, - others. If someone posts a forecast - ask them how it was derived. Accept nothing - question everything.

All we know technical trading is about what has happened to price, and this is to the left of the prevailing current price. On this basis, we can judge what price has done to that point in time (ranging or trending,) on any particular t/f's of interest. Similarly we can assess where the near-term potential support or resistance may be. We can also fashion a Trading Edge (based on the repeating behavior of price) and trade that edge without having to forecast the outcome of each time it sets up.

So what we know is this: Mthly is bullish, Wkly and Dly are in definite uptrends, and 4Hr is ranging. As for potential supp/res, the charts posted below may be instructive to some in that regard. As a summation, the bears don't currently seem to be able to hold the bulls down. Each dip in last week's range has been bought but the prev 1hr/4hr sw hi zone 4212-34 (the top of which is coexistent with the prev 4hr/dly/wkly/minor mthly sw hi zone to 4242) seems to be a difficult obstacle for bulls to get north of. There are currently more potentially minor obstacles to get north of before that on the 1hr/4hr chart, and any upside breach of the 4242 recent prev sw hi described above, (current yearly hi,) puts price straight into a wide mthly sw hi zone extending to 4376- a more ' major ' prev mthly sw hi, (that the top of the prev sw hi to 4242 is coexistent with.) Supply could emerge anywhere in this potential res zone?

A pretty data lite week again scheduled for next week with Pmi data both sides due as well as U.s Nfp and associated data. This later release may be the known event risk highlight of the week to come?

Mthly, Wkly, Dly, 4hr and 1Hr charts below.

Just wait and see how the market do on monday . No statement no conclusion. Price still on ranging area 1.42 - 1.41 as no break in both side will put price make accumulation or Distribution. Just seek a signal of strengh or weakness for further mover

There is some case in Daily candle


P.S : price close above double top but still near there. Anything can happen. Price could be FO and take below double bottom also. So remaining keep eyes on it and take any chance to get ride . Happy Weekend

For technical traders in entering a trade we must be doing so because our respective edge has developed/set-up. Ie;

a. We know from large sample empirical (not anecdotal/observational) evidence that when our edge sets-up there is an x % chance of it resulting in a successful outcome, and as long as we abide by the rules of our edge, and the money and trade management that has been optimised to and by it, then over a sample of x trades we should realise a profit across the sample.

Some edges will point to the greater probability some may not. For those that do not the risk: reward and a trader's ability to hold the trade open for the target is arguably even more important. We all know that an edge with even a low strike rate (winning trades as a % of total trades) can be profitable. Eg take a 20% strike rate. If on the 20% of times the edge produces a gain of say 50pips, and on the 80% of times the edge loses, it loses 10pips per trade ie a (1:5 risk:reward ratio) then a net gain across a sample of 100 trades should result in a gain of 200pips. (1000-800) So the edge still has a positive albeit low positive expectancy of 2pips/trade across this 100 trade sample. (ie net gain divided by number of trades, across the sample.)

If we enter a trade for any other reason other than our edge developing -and/or- without the information described above about our edge, we are simply gambling.

as i know if price RT the 1.41900 and failed on monday ill dive with it with tight SL , as my view still dip and dip as the 1.42000- 42200 hold like remind me of level 1.40000 back there

Great post again by Headland, appreciate your effort, time & resources putting very informative thought/information to members in thread.

Regards to techincal traders; With regards to struggling traders, the situation manifests itself in traders.

How often has the lament been heard, if only I had a better system, or if only I had different data, or maybe if I tried Fibonacci numbers for my moving averages.
Many traders have even believed that if they change the colour of their indicators that this will somehow improve their trading. As if altering these external variables will alter their trading performance.

Most traders look merely at the external features of the legend, the fact that it was a fruitless search, the grail was never found.

It is about individuals traders looking for an external solution to what is an internal problem.

Charts of price action are now being buried beneath layer upon layer of coloured lines.
It is as if by obscuring raw price action traders somehow hope to divine its intent.

What will improve traders trading is an understanding that trading is far more than a search for the ultimate indicator.
What has been demonstrated from your post in this thread is that methodology or the means by which they engage the market is largely irrelevant.
What is important is their underlying psychology and how they apply this to the market, it is not what number they use for their moving averages.

I really enjyoed reading your post which reflect a person you are. They are organized, disciplined, self reliant, analytical. Great Valeu Reading for me.
All of these are characteristics of individuals excel in any endevour but there is one characteristic that truly sets them apart.

Thanks for the post.

Keep it coming. Newbie loves that.

Sincerely

Sang Real

I knew this was coming, after couples of traders made a prediction/trade call without providing substantiate technical evidence, but merely made the call based on Fundamental.

Some traders are obviously fascinated by fundamental research, and there is nothing wrong with that.

But most traders on this forum are technical traders and have little or no interest in fundamental research or trading.

Expecting a response on futures fundamentals from a forex technical forum is a bit futile. I'm not surprised we received no responses.

However, with all that said, if a newbie (like me) want to learn/understand technical trading of the forex markets (with a small measure of fundamentals thrown in from time to time), then this thread is the right place to start from.

Remember story of my friend subscribe to Trade The News which is about as good as it gets.

Even recommend Reuters' feed. It made them feel very important but had limited value in day to day trading in Forex.

My impression is that keeping up to date with global news and financial indices is useful but the market will interpret the results better than I can.

Then just follow the market.

Understanding Market Maker (Smart Money) move markets, their playbook and then formulating a trading strategy that respects and moves in harmony with that.
Is even that possible to understand their true moves ?

Yes, what you're saying is true ; don't try to beat them, they are the market, make them work for you.

When we see what they are doing, it increases our odds of success. Become an expert at reading markets not indicators. When we understand how markets work, THEN focus on refining our method.

Going against them will makes us in pain. Yes pain is a thing that can grow in us more and more , if one can take pain as a best friend then there is nothing which can beat them in the world.

Have a great week ahead mysterio.

May the great pips attracted to you.

Sang Real

Thank you for a very valuable post. Appreciate it very much.

BTW how's everything , hope family is doing fine.

Take care and pray for you to stay healthy physically, mentally and spiritually.


Sincerely

Sang Real

My teacher died and unable continue learning Support & Resistant lesson from him.

He managed to teach me on how to trade S&R during ranging market, then he died.

He was supposed to teach me S&R during trending, but fate take him first.

That is why you can see me losing in trending market...lol

I think this is the difference between us..i swing trade and expect the market to rally..u expect it to bounce and 70% of the time it bounces..and my brain just does not want to expect/accept it is bouncing haha

Yes, but this is not really matter how you collecting the pips/money.
Any method, if it shows you the money.. this is the bottom line i guess.

the better to be a swinger is not to track of every move, this is what i hate about my method, im tired of it.. but the money worth it.

[quote = gatenio; 13559397] {quote} Có, nhưng đây không thực sự là vấn đề bạn thu pips / tiền như thế nào. Bất kỳ phương pháp nào, nếu nó cho bạn thấy tiền .. đây là điểm mấu chốt mà tôi đoán. tốt hơn để trở thành một người đánh đu không phải là theo dõi mọi chuyển động, đây là điều tôi ghét về phương pháp của mình, tôi mệt mỏi vì nó .. nhưng số tiền bỏ ra xứng đáng. [/Trích dẫn]
Black or white cats are fine as long as they catch mice!