Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Oh yeah, that type

Target for today 1.42330

Yea I am too. How far down is the question ..

Hi M,

Scalpers may take some profits at 1.41082.
For my swing scraper, I need DAILY to close below the above

It should be interesting

Maestro. a dog's nose has nothing on yours

Was tempted to short this drop but want to see a close below daily pivot before I enter.

Thank you Jay I will likely shoot for around there. I am dreaming of 1.40 but with a 5 pip risk I'm maybe asking a bit much from the market.

I was expecting this same pattern as Friday but in reverse- so far its a near mirror image

oh well

1.40 is likely insight. Maybe tomorrow? Who knows since we can't time the market. However, let's give it time and see how it all unfolds

Ok, i will sell double

Just took +20

I thought I felt a bull move coming and watching for a reaction in the circle

But judging by the recent dive I think it was a perfectly good short that I closed too early

See if we can reach S1 this time...

Let's see if it could break the wedge?

problem is the current lack of trend isn’t helping. Best play safe or lock in profits with tight s/l

Yea, 4xR gain so cant complain. I saw it forming a mini descending wedge with bull divergence plus a 5m demand zone so there is a good risk of a turnaround. However if they run the stops on both sides of the asia range like that I'd expect it to break out of the side it ran first (IE downside here), and it's moving down with some gusto now..

small GU long, just to short it later.

Yes, most of them are valued as 0 because they came out exactly the same with the consensus.

So many people are saying that inflation is good because they are followed by interest rates. And they tell me that an increase in GDP Growth Rate is also good but i calculate it as a negative thing. Well i can see your point, no offense.

First, let's look at how and why inflation occurs, and why it is bad.

Let's say your country makes 100$ worth of production, but your country supplies (giving loans, printing money etc.) 110$ worth of money. So that 10% difference is your country's inflation. It can be a negative number too. Depends on how much you produce and how much money you supply. So inflation is basically supply surplus. And what happens when you over supply something and create a surplus? The value drops. So that's why inflation affects currency in a bad way.

That's why inflation does not create any demand for the currency. It's already higher than the demand that's why it is a surplus. It can create a demand for the local goods but that will cause GDP growth rate to increase. So is higher GDP good? Nope.

GDP is made of 4 components:

Negative: Personal Consumption, Government Spending
Positive: Business Investments, Net Exports

So GDP is made of both positive and negative components and most of the time increases in GDP is because personal and government expenses. Because people are tend to spend much more than they earn.

Let's say you have a job where you make 6000$ a month, what will you do? You will probably take a mortgage and car loan with the extra money in your pocket. So you would spend 400,000 on the house and 40,000 on the car without actually earning that money. Maybe you bought a German car with your car loan, and congrats you just sent 40,000 bucks to Germany and made dollar supply to the world. You took it from the bank and you will pay them back in the next 20-30 years right? That's money supplied to you from the FED > Your Local Bank. So you took more money than you earn/produce because you think you can pay it back in 20-30 years. When millions of people do the same thing (believe me they do) That reflects as inflation, that reflects as high GDP and the value of your currency depreciates.

And yes interest rates are good. An increase in the interest rates appreciates the currency. But you should wait FED Interest Rate Decision date for it, not the CPI data. Otherwise you get on a trade very early, and based on your assumptions rather than the official FED Decision. What happens if FED does not raise the rates even though the inflation is high? It would hit your stop-loss. Because you took a trade based on an assumption, shot your shot very early. If FED raise the rates, i would get on that trade too you know, but i prefer waiting for the decision and selling the currency until that decision is made. After i see the official numbers, i will close my sell orders and start looking for open some buy orders.

Here's an academical example of what i have said, in my bachelor-level Economics book:

C. Real GDP

1. One factor affecting exchange rates is real GDP.
a. Increases in real GDP in the United States will increase the supply of dollars to foreign countries, causing the dollar to depreciate.

D. Inflation Rates

1. A second factor affecting exchange rates is the inflation rate.
a. An increase in the U.S. inflation rate will increase the supply of dollars to foreign countries and decrease the demand for dollars in foreign countries, causing the dollar to depreciate.

E. Interest Rates

1. A third factor affect exchange rate is the rate of interest.
a. An increase in U.S. interest rates will decrease the supply of dollars to foreign countries and increase the demand for dollars in foreign countries, causing the dollar to appreciate.

Oh that's even better
I just spotted Honorable Liu in the parking bay area.

He is joining the pressure to produce maximum HEAT.