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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #597,421
  • May 25, 2021 1:33pm May 25, 2021 1:33pm
Quoting Sang.Real
{quote} You've sold too many lot. How am I going to get to pass that. My scalping long will struggle to pass your Order Block..... lol P/S can you reduce you sell lot a bit, so I can pass easily tomorrow...... lol
Sang, you are doing well Bud. I need my glasses to keep up with you.
Cheers,
Trade to trade another day
  • #597,422
  • May 25, 2021 1:36pm May 25, 2021 1:36pm
Quoting Jgcole83
Time to go get a martini and watch futures tank to 90, rates on 10 year go to 1.5, and usd/jpy tank. Btw catching a falling knife and yelling BTC, UJ, or whatever it is' "TO THE MOON!!!". Is not!!!! Is not!! A responsible, or reliable trading strategy.
That's from 4/28 in uj forum.

Not a bad call.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #597,423
  • May 25, 2021 1:44pm May 25, 2021 1:44pm
Quoting Jgcole83
Anybody going long usd by shorting gbp/usd is doing theirselves a disservice by not watching rates on the 10 year. Rates dropped at market open. Usd bear trap.
My english not that good.. but i didnt understand nothing.
Short GU or buy GU
  • #597,424
  • May 25, 2021 1:54pm May 25, 2021 1:54pm
Quoting gatenio
{quote} My english not that good.. but i didnt understand nothing. Short GU or buy GU
Only long positions for gbp/usd.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #597,425
  • May 25, 2021 1:57pm May 25, 2021 1:57pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} Only long positions for gbp/usd.
thanks, noted.
Stay around.
  • #597,426
  • May 25, 2021 2:40pm May 25, 2021 2:40pm
Quoting Jgcole83
Anybody going long usd by shorting gbp/usd is doing theirselves a disservice by not watching rates on the 10 year. Rates dropped at market open. Usd bear trap.
So, are you saying that if the T-bond yield rate goes down, the USD goes down (and gbpusd up)?
Are you sure it's not the opposite?
  • #597,427
  • May 25, 2021 3:03pm May 25, 2021 3:03pm
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} So, are you saying that if the T-bond yield rate goes down, the USD goes down (and gbpusd up)? Are you sure it's not the opposite?
In theory yes, positive correlation on the yields but it's only one factor out of many. Also the correlation has broken down somewhat recently. You can't reliably say because US T yields are dropping cable will also drop imo. In q1 for sure, yields were really driving dollar strength but the relationship is less dominant now. Also I think Gilt yields bounced hard off of 90bps resistance last time I looked, have to consider the other side too.

Also jgcole may be totally right..it is a fair point and could well be the trigger for finally pushing the dollar below the support. I think tens had a pretty strong demand level at 150bps though so it can recover
  • #597,428
  • May 25, 2021 3:37pm May 25, 2021 3:37pm
Quoting mysterio
{quote} In theory yes, positive correlation on the yields but it's only one factor out of many. Also the correlation has broken down somewhat recently. You can't reliably say because US T yields are dropping cable will also drop imo. In q1 for sure, yields were really driving dollar strength but the relationship is less dominant now. Also I think Gilt yields bounced hard off of 90bps resistance last time I looked, have to consider the other side too. Also jgcole may be totally right..it is a fair point and could well be the trigger for finally pushing...
Thanks Mysterio,
the correlation is not 100% of course, but today 10Y yield did a nice red candle, Cable is doing almost a doji (a little bit red atm), with long shadow on the upper part, for sure is not a bullish signal....

Actually I was waiting the answer from Jgcole, to clarify his point of view, to understand why he is so sure about buy on gbpusd

Anyway I have some good bearish price action and patterns on GBPUSD on last days/weeks, that's why I'm waiting for 1.31, time will tell
  • #597,429
  • Edited 3:55pm May 25, 2021 3:43pm | Edited 3:55pm
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} Thanks Mysterio, the correlation is not 100% of course, but today 10Y yield did a nice red candle, Cable is doing almost a doji (a little bit red atm), with long shadow on the upper part, for sure is not a bullish signal.... Actually I was waiting the answer from Jgcole, to clarify his point of view, to understand why he is so sure about buy on gbpusd Anyway I have some good bearish price action and patterns on GBPUSD on last days/weeks, that's why I'm waiting for 1.31, time will tell
Ya sorry just waded in there

Remain on the side of 1.40 next but trying not to predict. The less I predict the more pips I get.. weird I'm just coming to this realisation

Jgcole would be interested to hear your thoughts too, the correlations are pretty interesting to me. I spent some time researching fixed income in my work life so still follow it closely

Also wow Vincent, 1.31? Would love to hear how you got to that. I'm eyeing up 1.39 for a bounce but still pretty far off
  • #597,430
  • May 25, 2021 3:43pm May 25, 2021 3:43pm
This GBP/USD H1 trendline is looking strong after today's bounce off it. Check out this website for technical analysis forex trading tutorials www.PipProject.com

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd h1 tl 25.5.21.jpg Size: 261 KB
Pip Project - Trading Channel
  • #597,431
  • May 25, 2021 3:56pm May 25, 2021 3:56pm
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Ya sorry just waded in there Remain on the side of 1.40 next but trying not to predict. The less I predict the more pips I get.. weird I'm just coming to this realisation Jgcole would be interested to hear your thoughts too, the correlations are pretty interesting to me Also wow Vincent, 1.31? Would love to hear how you got to that. I'm eyeing up 1.39 for a bounce but still pretty far off

No, come on, you don't need to sorry

Your post was with a good point of view

Dialogue and contribution, done with respect, are always good for all of us, don't stop it

1.31 is the result of several analysis on the Weekly. I also have analisys which they say 1.20. But at the moment the most likely is 1.31
Maybe you most likely analyze and trade smaller Time Frames
1.40 is the first hard support, but we already tested it. The candle at the end of the week will tell us more information
  • #597,432
  • May 25, 2021 3:57pm May 25, 2021 3:57pm
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Ya sorry just waded in there Remain on the side of 1.40 next but trying not to predict. The less I predict the more pips I get.. weird I'm just coming to this realisation Jgcole would be interested to hear your thoughts too, the correlations are pretty interesting to me Also wow Vincent, 1.31? Would love to hear how you got to that. I'm eyeing up 1.39 for a bounce but still pretty far off
You pretty much hit the nail on the head.

Sometimes they don't strictly correlate so there's little or no effect on uj or cable, but that can have to do with futures maybe offsetting rates or vice versa.

When dollar futures and rates are taking a dump or spiking at the same time that's when you really want to watch out.

It's my view and belief that the dollar isn't going to gain steam until the fed tapers and rates go up.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #597,433
  • May 25, 2021 6:52pm May 25, 2021 6:52pm
eu very interestingly poised, pa now 1 22468 previous daily resistance was 1 22423, if she can clear may indicate a false breakout, normally I would be watching for a retest and rejection thus pushing north, however she is in a 4hr/daily falling wedge and the 1 22656 was a tap of the UTL and previous daily open 8th January, so interesting times, my view if above happens the wedge range will be tradeable with the view to the wedge LTL BO time will tell :-)
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #597,434
  • May 25, 2021 7:20pm May 25, 2021 7:20pm
Last day was a good doji candle. Wish we can see bear candle today to confirm the downward move
"Buy Cheap and Sell Expensive , Its Market Anyways where People Get profit"
  • #597,435
  • May 25, 2021 7:42pm May 25, 2021 7:42pm
Quoting kris89
Last day was a good doji candle. Wish we can see bear candle today to confirm the downward move
good to see you looking at daily candles :-) 7 days entered 8th of ranging east, your doji mentioned is normal in ranging pa, in previous 7 days been 2 doji. 1 hammer 2 inverted hammer, 2 spinning tops, means "confusion, consolidation etc, the break out is usually big, and worth patience, waiting, only real trades are range trades buy low sell high, trend is presently up, so long bottom of range is most prudent trades, 2nd is shorting the top of range with view to BO south, anything inside is suicide, daily range is 1 41000 (psych) very easy longs to have taken, - 1 4218ish not so easy, but doable pa right now is mid range, gunslinger / gambler zone, "go to beach have a nice day
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #597,436
  • May 25, 2021 8:36pm May 25, 2021 8:36pm
Last swing H4 make higher low. Can breach to 1.4000 , price shouldnt go to 1.41500 above or this invalidation short
"Buy Cheap and Sell Expensive , Its Market Anyways where People Get profit"
  • #597,437
  • May 25, 2021 8:59pm May 25, 2021 8:59pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu2.png Size: 32 KB
yes yes yes
  • #597,438
  • May 25, 2021 9:49pm May 25, 2021 9:49pm
Quoting Moty
{image}
I think you need to colour the hammer in. A hollow hammer has no power. With colour, comes greater power.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #597,439
  • May 25, 2021 9:52pm May 25, 2021 9:52pm
Quoting Moty
{image}
We will get it... patience
Extreme gut feeling trader
  • #597,440
  • May 25, 2021 10:07pm May 25, 2021 10:07pm
bad us data and both au and nu with good outlooks have pushed hard up into previous resistance 4hr / daily au 7782 nu 7300 both worth an eyeball for possible short as always cheap entries on offer
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