Hello cable friends
Long range forecasting is not really in my wheelhouse (maybe if I keep trying I'll get it down one day??), but I do believe the market is giving us sufficient clues that it's heading to the downside in the near term with the double top, wedge, divergence, weekly supply area etc. As long as 89.69 on DXY stays intact. That level gives a nice line in the sand for the Dollar. The main buying area would then be 1.39, with possible bounce areas also at 1.3984-1.40014 and 1.3918-1.3943. Who knows though, the market can do anything. 1.39 is a big ask and implies dxy moving above 91. However, as we can see cable has been in an uptrend since mid April so the odds are on a bullish continuation. If it breaks up then the next major selling area for me is 1.4280-1.4380. Obviously take my newbie opinion with a huge grain of salt. I won't let this short or long 'prediction' influence any trading decisions next week- basically all I can do is quick scalps which sometimes turn into larger intraday swings. I am fine just taking small profits then hopefully let it compound over time.
Decided to just limit myself to 20 pips a day trading the LO and NYO only, hopefully in one or max two trades. Will post my best setup only for the day as it arises. In an effort to spend less time in front of the screen as I don't think it's healthy to stare at coloured bars going up and down all day. With the lockdown here in Scotland I really had nothing else to do, though. I did some analysis of past performance and my Sharpe ratio is far better when I do this, anyway. I notice I was doing much better back in March when I was not trying to forecast the HTF.
Managed to hit my target every day except Monday when I was comfortably up then foolishly and hubristically shorted the breakout north late in the session. This is the pitfall of forecasting/predicting/bias/greed, there was really no need for this. Luckily I keep stops fairly tight and cut losses quickly. Tuesday some nice range/ping pong scalping. Wednesday was a good one because I actually got my intraday bias correct and pounced on some nice sells. Thursday just some very quick scalps in the morning then missed the launch up, I was one of those 'expecting' downside continuation. Then Friday took a dumb trade on Cable (took a sell 15 mins before it launched) but found some redemption on the Euro, again just jumping on the sell at the right time when DXY was on the strong support, lucked out with a 50 pip sell for nearly 10xR. Friday was quite an interesting one to observe, with the stops being taken out on either side of the Asian range before launch, then Tuesday's high taken out before dropping. But it was one of those days I largely switched off from after making such a ridiculous error in the morning. Looking back at Friday it's as clear as day what was happening with hindsight- but this is meaningless really. I just read the book 'Fooled by Randomness' and he talks about the fallacy of analysts thinking they can predict the future of markets because they can analyse and describe the left side of the screen. So yea, not a disaster but definitely had better weeks on the markets. A big congratulations to those who were buying all the way up from 1.40.
Just a note on the dxy. It is not gonna tell you where cable is going, they can diverge, but it can give you some clues. If you had your level marked out on dxy it may have helped you get into shorts on Wednesday and Friday. Same with EURGBP, maybe this would have helped someone get the afternoon sell on cable. Anyway, I wish you all a successful and abundant week ahead. Thanks to those of you who take the time to post some analysis and a chart or two.
Long range forecasting is not really in my wheelhouse (maybe if I keep trying I'll get it down one day??), but I do believe the market is giving us sufficient clues that it's heading to the downside in the near term with the double top, wedge, divergence, weekly supply area etc. As long as 89.69 on DXY stays intact. That level gives a nice line in the sand for the Dollar. The main buying area would then be 1.39, with possible bounce areas also at 1.3984-1.40014 and 1.3918-1.3943. Who knows though, the market can do anything. 1.39 is a big ask and implies dxy moving above 91. However, as we can see cable has been in an uptrend since mid April so the odds are on a bullish continuation. If it breaks up then the next major selling area for me is 1.4280-1.4380. Obviously take my newbie opinion with a huge grain of salt. I won't let this short or long 'prediction' influence any trading decisions next week- basically all I can do is quick scalps which sometimes turn into larger intraday swings. I am fine just taking small profits then hopefully let it compound over time.
Decided to just limit myself to 20 pips a day trading the LO and NYO only, hopefully in one or max two trades. Will post my best setup only for the day as it arises. In an effort to spend less time in front of the screen as I don't think it's healthy to stare at coloured bars going up and down all day. With the lockdown here in Scotland I really had nothing else to do, though. I did some analysis of past performance and my Sharpe ratio is far better when I do this, anyway. I notice I was doing much better back in March when I was not trying to forecast the HTF.
Managed to hit my target every day except Monday when I was comfortably up then foolishly and hubristically shorted the breakout north late in the session. This is the pitfall of forecasting/predicting/bias/greed, there was really no need for this. Luckily I keep stops fairly tight and cut losses quickly. Tuesday some nice range/ping pong scalping. Wednesday was a good one because I actually got my intraday bias correct and pounced on some nice sells. Thursday just some very quick scalps in the morning then missed the launch up, I was one of those 'expecting' downside continuation. Then Friday took a dumb trade on Cable (took a sell 15 mins before it launched) but found some redemption on the Euro, again just jumping on the sell at the right time when DXY was on the strong support, lucked out with a 50 pip sell for nearly 10xR. Friday was quite an interesting one to observe, with the stops being taken out on either side of the Asian range before launch, then Tuesday's high taken out before dropping. But it was one of those days I largely switched off from after making such a ridiculous error in the morning. Looking back at Friday it's as clear as day what was happening with hindsight- but this is meaningless really. I just read the book 'Fooled by Randomness' and he talks about the fallacy of analysts thinking they can predict the future of markets because they can analyse and describe the left side of the screen. So yea, not a disaster but definitely had better weeks on the markets. A big congratulations to those who were buying all the way up from 1.40.
Just a note on the dxy. It is not gonna tell you where cable is going, they can diverge, but it can give you some clues. If you had your level marked out on dxy it may have helped you get into shorts on Wednesday and Friday. Same with EURGBP, maybe this would have helped someone get the afternoon sell on cable. Anyway, I wish you all a successful and abundant week ahead. Thanks to those of you who take the time to post some analysis and a chart or two.
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