Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Hi Navin,

It's been a while since i posted here but i'm impressed to see you are still here and alive... ahahaha.. How's life bro?

Anyway, regarding cable, what i see is swissy currently at its support level and triple zero level @ 0.9 area. Unless this price area give up, then only i think cable will see more upside movement. Until then, I think cable will be limited to about 1.41 low area where the support turned resistance in the 4h TF.

By the way, swissy closed as gravestone in weekly.. perhaps a sign for reversal? if that's so, i think cable will be in for distribution phase and perhaps moving downside later on.. Just my 2 cents guys.

Hello I'm new here

picture.

I hope you are having a good weekend like i do!

Looks like Cable is recovering and USD has lost the CPI thing in most of the pairs. So maybe answer is changing?

I can guess that you will say "retail sales are bearish". Although retail sales were very bullish last month, it didn't affect USD in a good way. Cable went up like crazy.

Don't get me wrong though, i am not here start to an argument. I just want to know your opinion about what's going on right now with USD.

With usd all will be ok.

go to start menu and search: snipping tool
thank me later

Yep it will probably go up. I am long.

Fxtm is different from fxcm, fxtm isn't a scam broker as I have been using them for over 6 years now. It was the dollar naira rate peg removal that slashed my equity value.

In between, I sincerely appreciate your concern..

Best of luck to us all this week.

Hi Nordling ,retail sales is bullish,
as it went up 10% last month to all time highs, then this months numbers show that same record amount spent again in the last month.
So we know money is circulating at a very high pace = the money is being spent.
Of course we have the game of words of why these numbers are at that level which is the problem for any good data.The FED already said they expect it.

Hello Caballers

Cable gave us a gift last week with the rise to 1.4150 and drop thereafter seemingly a sure thing. This week seems a lot tougher to pin down IMO so tread carefully. I like to make a plan at the weekend and consider both the bull and the bear side, what my bias is and what would make me change my mind. However, I make my money on the 5m chart and trade both ways so this is just an exercise. My bias is merely there to make me more inclined to hold trades a bit longer and leave runners if I have conviction that something is going to happen. I'm not here to predict 300 pip swings as it's not what I'm good at. Under no circumstances trade anything I post with real money, you wouldn't take horse racing tips from a random person in a bookmakers so don't do it here either If I post a trade there's a good chance I TP'd or took breakeven on it before you even read it.

With that said, on the daily our ABCD played out perfectly, and if the pattern is to be taken to its conclusion then we're talking about a target of 1.38 which jives well with a daily demand level. Bulls will be thinking that we had a major breakout last week and 1.40 is an RBS level, Bears will be thinking it was a buyside liquidity sweep and the major players are building shorts up here, and the move to 1.41 was a retest of this level before more downside. 1.41 is also the 0.618 retrace of the last down leg so a break or bounce here will be instructive.

For me I will trade both ways, I am watching 1.41 and 1.4127-46 for any bearish price action. If we break out of the H1 flag then we have a good bearish confirmation signal. If we start pushing above the ascending channel then we have good bullish confirmation may even start to think about breaking the last high.

DXY I want to watch 90.12-90.20 for a bounce, beyond that to see if the 90 demand area holds. We posted about the bounces from 90 and 91 so there's no major surprises here. Either we're basing here and getting ready to pop or we're just continuing the strong daily downtrend. I'll we watching the PA carefully around here. One clue we have is the US10Y yields making a very bullish formation. On Friday it's common for rates traders to take profits at round numbers (170bps in this case). Bullishness here on the back of the inflation news would indicate a rising dollar and more bearishness for cable. I cannot see how yearly double digit inflation can be sustained without tapering, and the cost push & demand pull inflationary pressures are growing, not falling. So my gut feeling is that this will play out and we'll see falls from 1.41-4150. However, anything can happen- I prefer to react to price action on the shorter time frames and make a small profit every day- but if you put a gun to my head I'd say 1.3950 next week, beyond that 1.38. Ranging between 1.40-1.41 wouldn't shock me either.

What do you think? Am I talking shit or are there kernels of truth? What are you doing? Good luck and good trading to you all for the week ahead

Last point, if you're trading the lower TFs the HTF should be a framework for price giving you areas where your eyes are drawn to. Having any preconceived notions about where price is going will hurt your performance not help it, its likely just noise in your head that you don't need.

Maybe thats a bullish $ weekly ,requires confirm.

If the FED go up the curve that would be $ bearish .

A good video outlining how this broken system works.

Hi Bones,

Long time no see brother..

I concur, requires confirmation.. but the pattern might indicate reversal.. and not to mention, fiber is also at its last swing high in daily (29/4 high), and gold (at its resistance in daily) and silver (at about its daily S&R level also)... well it seems like they all arrive (or atm stop) at about their S&R levels..

Well i think, this is going to be an interesting PA next week..

Wave 4 retrace 38.2%. It's perfect.

Gold COT looking bullish

GBPUSD HAVE to test the 1.39500 level , 1.40 drop is not enough to validate it.If can trade for couple hours bellow 1.39500 , we can see it as low as 1.38000.In a similar scenario last week NZDUSD failed to validate and broke down. Now is trading at a lower level at 0.72450 but is going to kiss 0.70700.
Another weakness signal for GBP is EURGBP finding buyers below 0.86.In my humble opinion GBP could range another day above 1.40 but can't escape BEARS rage.I could upload a few pics of my TA to justify my view but it's only a bunch of blue lines on a black screen that make no sense with any other TA
Bulls or bears good luck for next week,be smart and nail the profits.Don't forget the only principle who drives the market BUY LOW/SELL HIGH.

Happy Sunday everyone!

Anything is possible !

In my own silly view, Thursday s failure to get back under 1.4 and Fridays break back above 4080 = bulls 2 weeks long grip on momentum is maintained, for now.

This week, bulls need most closes to be above 4030 to keep it as strong as it is now.

A break above .4130s resistance as early as Monday or Tuesday and this momentum could make .42 new support as early as this week.

If .4130s doesnt break in this same momentum move = more chances for ranging conditions from .39 - .415 before eventual testing of .36s - .38s or a continuation to new highs.



Wish you the best of weeks !

1.3950?

Yield curve control is one way how they stop rates going up and it wouldn't be unusual for the Fed to do something without informing anyone.
They do let the market know they will intervene at a rate of $120 billion a month for sure, but that's an open ended minimum . They have used way more than this holding rates down in recent months.
Inflation is traditionally measured over a year ,but since late last year the rules were changed.So before a CB bank would defiantly be concerned about the Genie ,but now it's all in a days work.


The fact that they already intervene is a major problem for a free market because no one really knows what the rates (price of money) should be had they not entered the market.