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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #594,901
  • May 13, 2021 5:20pm May 13, 2021 5:20pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} yea but the Fed don't control interest rates
Yes and no I think. They control the federal funds rate and open market operations so have a great deal of influence over interest rates even if the prevailing rate is decided by the market..but they can control it to the extent whereby they can buy or sell treasuries at any point in the curve to shift yields up or down.

Quoting parshal
{quote} Hello Mysterio, So DXY closes the day with a doji, and cable too. So there is still a chance for DXY to drop lower tomorrow and also a probability of cable testing the high of 1.42. Perhaps the fundamentals tomorrow can drive the action. Nonetheless I had closed my position bought at 1.4049 when it went lower than 1.4034 in the afternoon. It's funny that it closes the day exactly at the same price. On the other side DXY failed to climb 91.40 and above. How are you taking the situation currently? Despite how it turns up tomorrow, it would be nice to see your views as well.
Let me check tomorrow man, gonna try and get some rest for the night I'll be back for Frankfurt!
  • #594,902
  • Edited 5:41pm May 13, 2021 5:25pm | Edited 5:41pm
Right now as we speak the commercial cost of money over 10Y is 1.67 when last week closed at 1.58 in the US.
If you think about why banks are not lending money ,it is because money is so cheap the risk is UP.
It can't go below 0% in the retail market, margins are very thin.
Low interest rates stop any growth for a fact =look Japan.It's better for a bank to take cheap money and place it in the stock market.
You can even make money by taking short term debt at near 0% and buying longer term debt at xyz.
They can make money on the spread.

The Fed moving that overnight rate would be a big story, but it occurs in the financial sector, partly feeding too retail.It would affect the banks directly.
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  • #594,903
  • May 13, 2021 5:26pm May 13, 2021 5:26pm
This is what i think the cable should do , good luck
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  • #594,904
  • May 13, 2021 5:28pm May 13, 2021 5:28pm
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Yes and no I think. They control the federal funds rate and open market operations ! so have a great deal of influence over interest rates
Not when it's 0% and being artificially held at 0%
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  • #594,905
  • Edited 5:43pm May 13, 2021 5:33pm | Edited 5:43pm
If the fed moved the overnight rate to 3% then they are in control more because thats more realistic.
The spread is very wide between interest rates and the Fed rate because the Fed rate is wrong according to the market.
In the end the Fed would be forced to move the rate up like it or not, if inflation runs too hot.

To have short term rates at 0% the FED have to spend 120 Billion of funny money into the market per month at least.
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  • #594,906
  • May 13, 2021 5:38pm May 13, 2021 5:38pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} So they can beat the expectations by a lot...and make USDx go above 91.

Here is my take for tomorrow’s retail sales report:

Retail sales is a leading indicator for the CPI. CPI is more or less dictated buy the Retail sales and this is the reason why CPI results are published before thr Retail Sales. Otherwise the market will be drained and it will crash.
This relation between Retail Sales and CPI means that if retail sails goes up the CPI goes up too. Now that we know the result of the CPI report we can assume that the Retail Sale have been goin up too during the last month.
Anyway this is only assumption but it is pretty obvious considering the correlation between Retail Sales and CPI.

This is not a trading advice. Just my view.
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #594,907
  • May 13, 2021 5:42pm May 13, 2021 5:42pm
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Yes and no I think. They control the federal funds rate and open market operations so have a great deal of influence over interest rates even if the prevailing rate is decided by the market..but they can control it to the extent whereby they can buy or sell treasuries at any point in the curve to shift yields up or down. {quote} Let me check tomorrow man, gonna try and get some rest for the night I'll be back for Frankfurt!
Yeah sure...it's anyways sleep time. I am almost snoring now good night
My observation may be wrong but intent correct. Stay calm!
  • #594,908
  • May 13, 2021 5:53pm May 13, 2021 5:53pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Oh, I see you've discovered the pattern versions. Nice progress. But do images from google support this version?
so this is what evening star looks like in real life
on dow the other day
and before on cable last year
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  • #594,909
  • May 13, 2021 5:56pm May 13, 2021 5:56pm
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Too many “ifs” mate. When it comes to technicals anything can happen from here. If we look at the fundamentals many things suggest a stronger dollar in the near to medium future. 1. Inevitable inflation. 2. inevitable rebate hike. 3. Geopolitical troubles a) China, Australia, Philippines, Taiwan. b) Isearel, Palestine. c) Russia, Ukraine.
Of course geopolitics is another factor. I don't think there's too many ifs though, i mean that much of ifs are healthy for the competition in the market. While some traders are selling Cable, hoping FED will raise rates, some traders will be buying hoping that rates won't change. And some will wait until the rates are out. These three options comes with their own risks. I am still on my buy position for example. I can't blame the sellers as well. But they are in a riskier position compared to buyers since we still have lots of trading days until the interest rate decision.
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  • #594,910
  • May 13, 2021 5:57pm May 13, 2021 5:57pm
so this candle would have been better had it closed Lower ,
but you can see I'm not calling a shovel a fork .
It could be we would need a weekly to print which is not far from the open.
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  • #594,911
  • May 13, 2021 5:57pm May 13, 2021 5:57pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} yea but the Fed don't control interest rates
What? Who then?
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  • #594,912
  • May 13, 2021 5:59pm May 13, 2021 5:59pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
4hr chart, 16hours of ping pong between 4054 - 4015, new candle just opened previous bar was inside bar would seem sell top of range buy bottom is still the order of pa until either is broken :-) no rocket science required !!!!
possible diamond forming eu 1hr / 4hrly not tradeable as yet, bo and retest required!!! but well worth an eyeball present target is approx 60 pips, again this pattern is probably the best reversal pattern, so initial 60 pips should be followed by many more??
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  • #594,913
  • May 13, 2021 6:08pm May 13, 2021 6:08pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} What? Who then?
US interest rates are higher than the beginning of the week ,do you agree ?
also the $ went much stronger on a high inflation red data ,do you agree ?
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  • #594,914
  • May 13, 2021 6:13pm May 13, 2021 6:13pm
Quoting parshal
{quote} Hello Mysterio, So DXY closes the day with a doji, and cable too. So there is still a chance for DXY to drop lower tomorrow and also a probability of cable testing the high of 1.42. Perhaps the fundamentals tomorrow can drive the action. Nonetheless I had closed my position bought at 1.4049 when it went lower than 1.4034 in the afternoon. It's funny that it closes the day exactly at the same price. On the other side DXY failed to climb 91.40 and above. How are you taking the situation currently? Despite how it turns up tomorrow, it would...
the daily doji is trumped by weekly doji, market is going sideways smaller timeframes for a reason, bears want as close to this weeks as possible 1 4002, ( very nice weekly doji) bulls are fighting this and my view losing, a close this week anywhere near 1 4002 will be great for bears medium term, wouldnt hurt to sit on hands and wait for weeks close :-)
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  • #594,915
  • May 13, 2021 6:14pm May 13, 2021 6:14pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} possible diamond forming eu 1hr / 4hrly not tradeable as yet, bo and retest required!!! but well worth an eyeball present target is approx 60 pips, again this pattern is probably the best reversal pattern, so initial 60 pips should be followed by many more??
spot on EU

My plan for EU..
Peace Yo!
  • #594,916
  • May 13, 2021 6:22pm May 13, 2021 6:22pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} interest rates are higher than the beginning of the week ,do you agree ? also the $ went much stronger on a high inflation red data ,do you agree ?
I don't agree,
And i don't agree. Brave traders (cause it's the riskiest but highest rewarding option) sold gbp/usd because they think interest rates will increase which is reasonable, but we still have a month left for the interest rate decision. So that's what moved the price downwards. I don't think they will increase the rates though, if they do i will close my long positions and for now, my buy positions are still in profit right now. So you still proved me nothing and if FED do raise the rates Cable will go down, that's also a scenario that i calculated so you still won't be proving anything

And don't get so excited yet, it only went 90 pips down while it moved 200+ pips upwards in the previous days Which is why i am still in profit.
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  • #594,917
  • May 13, 2021 6:34pm May 13, 2021 6:34pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} I don't agree, And i don't agree. Brave traders (cause it's the riskiest but highest rewarding option) sold gbp/usd because they think interest rates will increase which is reasonable, but we still have a month left for the interest rate decision. So that's what moved the price downwards. I don't think they will increase the rates though, if they do i will close my long positions and for now, my buy positions are still in profit right now. So you still proved me nothing and if FED do raise the rates Cable will go down, that's also a scenario...
No
Fed don't control rate we can come back to it after the retail sales .
You can disagree, but the chart is right as is bones, with no bachelor.
High inflation =stronger $ and higher rates ,The FED will have to be the follower on the data + catch up on rates.
The Fed is insulting traders intelligence .
Time will tell
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  • #594,918
  • May 13, 2021 6:47pm May 13, 2021 6:47pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} No Fed don't control rate we can come back to it after the retail sales . You can disagree, but the chart is right as is bones, with no bachelor. High inflation =stronger $ and higher rates ,The FED will have to be the follower on the data + catch up on rates. The Fed is insulting traders intelligence . Time will tell {image}
Mr Bones,
cpi - good
employment - bad 6.1%, but job opening was good..
Retail sales - ?? Last month was good..

Any other fed indicator i miss out for fes rate hike?
Peace Yo!
  • #594,919
  • Edited 7:15pm May 13, 2021 6:48pm | Edited 7:15pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} No Fed don't control rate we can come back to it after the retail sales . You can disagree, but the chart is right as is bones, with no bachelor. High inflation =stronger $ and higher rates ,The FED will have to be the follower on the data + catch up on rates. The Fed is insulting traders intelligence . Time will tell {image}
Of course Central Banks control the interest rates. We are not talking about an average citizen's mortgage loan here.

I don't deny the chart, please you don't deny what happened previously on the chart too. I say that USD went up yesterday because people expect FED to raise interest rates, so they bought USD from the cheapest level which is good for them, but they will vanish if FED don't raise the rates next month. So they depend on that.

Let's not twist my words Mr. Bones. I don't deny anything here.
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  • #594,920
  • Edited 7:28pm May 13, 2021 7:04pm | Edited 7:28pm
GU to drop -0.6% -0.8% before any upside movement.It's all big short gentlemen, don't fight the market.1.39750--
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