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Stable & safe TREND strategy - 30% to 40% yearly profits

  • #221
  • Apr 18, 2021 2:24am Apr 18, 2021 2:24am
Meanwhile, my EURUSD averaging account went in deep drawdown... quite a big serie of deals. Waiting for a retrace.

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Averaging is risky... but when done without greed it should work. Found this averaging strategy working already 3 years on a live account. Impressive. Can it be considered safe and stable...? 3 years... Ok, don't put all money on it... split capital. But think this is a good long-term result.

Let's see how my averaging EA will get out of dd. Afraid my server issues maybe impacted the next level opening. If EA will survive - that will be additional "+" for safety - even if issues with VPS, a strategy should survive.
  • #222
  • Apr 18, 2021 3:05am Apr 18, 2021 3:05am
Quoting gepards
SOLVED! Did VPS server configuration according to this post. Tested several times - restarted server. And now all EAs re-attach on charts fine. Don't know why... but it is working smoothly now. Added to Scheduled Task email sending when the VPS server restarted - so I can double-check if all EAs attached to the charts. See here how to add email sending script. All works great now - I feel...
Added additional email sending logic - before the server shut down. It might not work on power off... but on normal shutdown will work (like on windows update or if VPS provider restarts server).

You may write script to send message and set it in GPO
Local computer Policy > Computer Configuration > Windows Settings > Scripts (Startup/Shutdown).
But it will be works only when you Shutdown/Restart machine. If you get power failure then I think does not work ;/

This is needed to check if the server gets started back. Because MT5 will be restarted only on the server UP. But if the server for some reason didn't start UP after shutdown then I will have a chance to deal with open trades - close them manually via mobile phone or manually handle them somehow for example.

In order to be 100% sure I need 2nd server on which install for example free server monitoring tool Zabbix and then monitor 1st server running state. Will think about this...
  • #223
  • Apr 23, 2021 2:46pm Apr 23, 2021 2:46pm
Here is a primitive strategy... no indicators, no lines, no logic at all...

Open BUY and SELL orders with the same volume.

USDJPY: take profit 160 pips, stop loss 80 pips. 1 hour before London opening. Enjoy profits.

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  • #224
  • Apr 23, 2021 3:12pm Apr 23, 2021 3:12pm
Quoting gepards
Here is a primitive strategy... no indicators, no lines, no logic at all... Open BUY and SELL orders with the same volume. USDJPY: take profit 160 pips, stop loss 80 pips. 1 hour before London opening. Enjoy profits. {image}
Thanks! I always thought it depends on vola instead of statical RR 2:1 pips. Have you figured out 160/80 by optimisation?
  • #225
  • Apr 23, 2021 3:15pm Apr 23, 2021 3:15pm
Quoting kofix11
{quote} Thanks! I always thought it depends on vola instead of statical RR 2:1 pips. Have you figured out 160/80 by optimisation?
Yes optimized EA. But there exist different TP/SL combinations too. This "strategy" works for EURUSD and GBPUSD too but all symbols have different TP/SL setups.

But yes, one more aspect of strategy: deals TP/SL check every 1 hour. Therefore SL/TP will be different +/- X pips.

But overall this strange "strategy" worked for 3 years for all major pairs.
  • #226
  • Apr 23, 2021 3:29pm Apr 23, 2021 3:29pm
Quoting gepards
But yes, one more aspect of strategy: deals TP/SL check every 1 hour. Therefore SL/TP will be different +/- X pips.
Here GBPUSD with huge X on strong move... but when a strong move that 1h timespan plays in both direction as protection if 2 deals opened.

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Here GBPUSD TP 40 and SL 180 pips for both BUY/SELL deals. GBPUSD is choppy symbol so here negative risk/reward plays better. And was +/- 500 pips move covered. But well... shit might happen.. for example 1 deal close with SL and then other still opened and then market strong move in oposit direction. Then in that 1 hour can run quite a lot pips...

Anyway this "strategy" is just example. Still needs for improvements. Maybe set some protective SL for opened deals for example additional 50 pips.
  • #227
  • Apr 23, 2021 3:41pm Apr 23, 2021 3:41pm
Quoting gepards
Here is a primitive strategy... no indicators, no lines, no logic at all... Open BUY and SELL orders with the same volume. USDJPY: take profit 160 pips, stop loss 80 pips. 1 hour before London opening. Enjoy profits. {image}
Here DAX results...

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770 deals in 3 years. Quite enough for statistic consideration.
  • #228
  • Apr 30, 2021 7:25am Apr 30, 2021 7:25am
EURUSD averaging EA got in deep drawdown now..

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Strong trend and not enough retrace still. 10 years stats show it MUST retrace. Maybe next week...
  • #229
  • Apr 30, 2021 11:15am Apr 30, 2021 11:15am
Quoting gepards
EURUSD averaging EA got in deep drawdown now.. {image} Strong trend and not enough retrace still. 10 years stats show it MUST retrace. Maybe next week...
Yes, and EURUSD did retrace 80 pips - all levels closed.
  • #230
  • May 1, 2021 11:46am May 1, 2021 11:46am
This account performs well. 2nd month ended. So far ~29% profits from MSFT stock buy dips.

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But here the best part... the account opened in ETH currency when ETH was at 1400 usd. Now ETH is ~2870 usd.. so 100% profits when converted to USD. Add 30% from MSFT deals so it made 160% profits in 2 months. So far the best result for me..

opening an account in ETH currency and trading MSFT stocks is a hedge. If ETH falls 50% but MSFT going up (so buy dips perform quite profitable) then break even. Here MSFT grows only 6.8% compared with March 1, 2021 when started to buy the dips for MSFT.

One negative scenario - ETH down and MSFT down. If some of them in a flat then buy MSFT dips works good.

So we have 3 positive scenarios vs 1 negative.
  • #231
  • May 3, 2021 5:04am May 3, 2021 5:04am
Quoting gepards
But here the best part... the account opened in ETH currency when ETH was at 1400 usd. Now ETH is ~2870 usd.. so 100% profits when converted to USD. Add 30% from MSFT deals so it made 160% profits in 2 months.
Looks insane but yes... ETH now 3170 usd. In 12 months starting from 210 usd.

ETH has more practical use for corporate business vs BTC. If compare with stocks then ETH is like Microsoft (business-oriented) and BTC is like Apple (private person fashion/cult). Even if BTC will stay/grow - ETH will grow more consistently. And eventually, after several years ETH will beat BTC.

New upgrades of ETH like EIP-2929 would enable devices like cell phones to trustlessly interact with Ethereum without needing to run a full node. This is a very important advantage.

ETH will go to at least 10k USD.
  • #232
  • May 3, 2021 11:14pm May 3, 2021 11:14pm
Quoting gepards
This account performs well. 2nd month ended. So far ~29% profits from MSFT stock buy dips. {image} But here the best part... the account opened in ETH currency when ETH was at 1400 usd. Now ETH is ~2870 usd.. so 100% profits when converted to USD. Add 30% from MSFT deals so it made 160% profits in 2 months. So far the best result for me.. opening an account in ETH currency and trading MSFT stocks is a hedge. If ETH falls 50% but MSFT going up (so buy dips perform quite profitable) then break even. Here MSFT grows only 6.8% compared with March 1,...
Should be more dip for MSFT today because of Gates divorce.
  • #233
  • May 4, 2021 6:39am May 4, 2021 6:39am
Quoting joyny
Should be more dip for MSFT today because of Gates divorce.
Yes, some additional dip could be but then will retrace. Amazon surged a lot after Bezos's divorce. So nothing serious here. B. Gates no more in charge of MSFT business - he left the board last year.
  • #234
  • Edited 7:12am May 4, 2021 7:00am | Edited 7:12am
Quoting gepards
ETH will go to at least 10k USD.
Here is an additional "why" about big tech companies involved in crypto.. including my stock's favorite company MSFT.

Bil Gates warned that Bitcoin is too expensive to mine - it makes damage to the environment more than "any other method". co2 footprint of BTC is dramatic compared vs ETH:

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And yes - as ETH is more "managed as a business" it will be easier to transform algorithms for ETH rather than for an "independent" BTC community. It is more complicated for BTC to agree to algorithms changes than for ETH.
  • #235
  • May 9, 2021 9:59pm May 9, 2021 9:59pm
Quoting gepards
{quote} Here is an additional "why" about big tech companies involved in crypto.. including my stock's favorite company MSFT. Bil Gates warned that Bitcoin is too expensive to mine - it makes damage to the environment more than "any other method". co2 footprint of BTC is dramatic compared vs ETH: {image} And yes - as ETH is more "managed...
Bitcoin will be brought down by the founders as they know the weaknesses of mining which will be quietly passed to hackers to end the saga.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #236
  • May 11, 2021 10:55am May 11, 2021 10:55am
USDCAD stil down but needed up. Seems the last level left - after that stop out.

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will close all averaging related EAs accounts - it is not stable and it is not safe. Even if 10 years backtests worked fine. It does not guarantee anything.
  • #237
  • May 13, 2021 3:05am May 13, 2021 3:05am
Quoting gepards
USDCAD stil down but needed up. Seems the last level left - after that stop out. {image} will close all averaging related EAs accounts - it is not stable and it is not safe. Even if 10 years backtests worked fine. It does not guarantee anything.
Finaly USDCAD did some retrace. Closed manually all levels with small drawdown for account 9%.

Turned off averaging EAs for EURUSD, USDJPY and USDCAD - here cant be used my averaging strategy. Too trendy pairs. GBPUSD and EURGBP will continue to run - because of choppy pairs.

I saw how USD crash survived GBPUSD EA - very good. It went out of drawdown fast. But USDCAD no. Because maybe CAD get stronger because of oil prices. Combination USD week and CAD strong did bad. GBP is more suitable.
  • #238
  • May 13, 2021 3:08am May 13, 2021 3:08am
Meanwhile, 2 trades opened in virtual strategy - using virtual averaging and entry normal safe trades with normal safe SL/TP approach. Opened USDCAD because it went so deep with averaging levels. This is good. Feel safer with that.
  • #239
  • May 18, 2021 12:16pm May 18, 2021 12:16pm
Quoting gepards
Meanwhile, 2 trades opened in virtual strategy - using virtual averaging and entry normal safe trades with normal safe SL/TP approach. Opened USDCAD because it went so deep with averaging levels. This is good. Feel safer with that.
Those 2 trades hit SL. Ok fine. According to backtests.
  • #240
  • Jun 21, 2021 3:25pm Jun 21, 2021 3:25pm
All going ok. According to optimizations/backtests.

Started to work some accoutns where I set up varios EAs:

1) Probabilities fluctuations based EAs (20 EAs setups - catching extremes of fluctuations).

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2) "Do it again" EA with quite stupid strategy but... backtests was promising. Now some deals are done. No infinite martingale - only 2 deals.

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