Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Wasting your time and mine

BTW, you're welcome.

"All causation was push. It was the first, and the clearest, theory of causation. Later, from about 1900 on, the world was regarded as an electrical clockwork. But, in both cases, it was regarded as an ideally precise clockwork. Either the cogwheels pushed each other, or the electromagnets attracted and repelled each other with absolute precision. There was, of course, no room for human decisions. Our feelings that we are acting, planning and understanding each other were illusory. But starting with Werner Heisenberg in 1927, a great change occurred in quantum physics. It became clear that minute processes made the clockwork imprecise: there were objective indeterminacies. Physical theory had to bring in probabilities... Instead of speaking of the possibility of an event occurring, we might speak, more precisely, of an inherent propensity to produce, upon repetition, a certain statistical average. These tendencies and propensities have led to the emergence of life. And they have led to the unfolding of life, the evolution of life. And the evolution of life has led to better conditions for life on earth, and thus to new possibilities and propensities; and to new forms of life that differ utterly. All this means that possibilities – even possibilities that have not yet realized themselves – have a kind of reality; a kind of, as yet, conditional reality. The numerical propensities that attach to the possibilities can be interpreted as a measure of this status of a not yet fully realized reality – a reality in the making. And in so far as these possibilities can, and partly will, realize themselves in time, in the future, the open future is, almost as a promise, as a temptation, as a lure, present; indeed, actively present, at every moment. The old world picture that puts before us a mechanism operating with causes that are all in the past – the past kicking and driving us with kicks into the future – the past that is gone – is no longer adequate to our indeterministic world. Causation is just a special case of propensity and a comparatively rare case: the case of a propensity equal to 1, a determining demand, or force, for realization. It is not the kicks from the back, from the past, that impel us, but the attraction, the lure of the future and its attractive possibilities that entice us: this is what keeps life – and, indeed, the world – unfolding.” Karl Popper


All the trading concepts we form contain ‘the lure of the future and its attractive possibilities that entice us’, for every concept contains a prediction that we will take profits from the market; but it is a mistake to think of causation as being a single line, when in fact it is a multidimensional net spreading far and wide. Whether trades fail or succeed we often give linear explanations such as A caused B and B caused C. This explanation does not include the multitude of events leading up to the trade, the entire history of this particular market and all our thoughts, past and present. We may think this is irrelevant, yet this multitude of causes was what brought us to that spot at that particular time and led us to act in the way that we did.


To me a good trading plan is simply a repeatable process that can be employed in the future that has a propensity to generate profits. A good strategy is usually in balance with the market and rarely conflicts with it, whereas a bad strategy frequently does conflict with the market.


That's not to say that all good processes are equal, but it is a mistake to assume that other people create the same meanings as we do, and then condemn them when they fail to act in the way that our meanings lead us to expect that they should.. A good plan could be based on kicks from the past, or the lure of the future, both, or something else entirely. As long as it is logical and it works - use it!

Not wasting my time, but thanks anyway

This daily chat hardly does a single bear, these days it comes with consecutive bears... There is a possibility of 1.3710/1.3725 area before rise to 1.3865/1.3880 area. I will exit my long at 1.3822 area for now and switch to short from 1.3820/1.3840 area to target 1.3725 in the early part of this week.

Stop loss at 1.3885

After the latest data releases, GBP regained fundamental advantage against USD. I think GBP/USD will go up again. This is just a pullback, i will buy it if i see a bullish reaction.

Yes,, i dont like SL nor TP
Dont like the risk reward concepts..
Because i sit infront of my laptop all day..
If i have to go somewhere or doing other things for longer time.. "Maybe" i put SL or TP ,, or just close it right away (green or red)
My money management is .. i entry big when im sure, and entry small when im not.
With sl and tp.. i got my fingers ready.
And its small target per day.. 10, 20 pips.

Great observation. Well done brother!

Ihlas you made it..and in the making more down perhaps...gr8 to see your analysis working.
I was not active on friday though I had seen the cable dropping.
Wish you green week ahead.

Quoting parshal

Disliked

{quote} Ihlas you made it..and in the making more down perhaps...gr8 to see your analysis working. I was not active on friday though I had seen the cable dropping. Wish you green week ahead.

Ignored

Hi Parshal,
Hope you are doing wll and harvested a lot of pips last week. Wish you to grow a lot of pips on your farm this week. And Thank you.
Last week was full of lessons for my future analysis. I am improving it day by day. As soon as I understand why x amount pips went against me, there is no problem. And I'm glad if my analysis helped you a little bit
Good luck and have a good day

BTW I had long positions and could not anticipate the friday move..and also I was not trading on friday.
So the market went against my positions, lets see how it goes next week. Seeing the weekly candle, I am hoping one shot up again before the down move.

me too... looking to take back 50-100 pips before going with you all the way down

Here's my take on the GBPUSD, I'm a medium-term swing trader. On the daily time frame, although the market structure supporting a rising channel (red) is still intact, presently, the technical mode is bearish. In terms of the order flow context, the recent bottom-wicked candlesticks printed at the channel support trendline may incentivize liquidity grab by bears before a northward turnaround. Technically, in the short term, I am more bearish GBPUSD than bullish.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Why do you think it will go down ?

your upper tl of channel is not valid, other than range perspective, however your rising lower tl is valid but not accurate, I have same but the true position according to ltl touches is slightly steeper, with the 1st pierce south 24th march which bears failed to confirm, 2nd pierce 7th april again bearsfailed to confirm 3rd pierce 22 april presenely in play, the pierce was retested last thursday and fridays candle confirmed bo south, "however" that does not mean today will be south only (pull backs are normal) however with 7 days bearish encompassing, shows sentiment for reversal bigger time frames weekly LH LL inverted hammer, mont;ly march inside bar, april LH LL, going to be an interesting MAY :-)

Rising channel originated from the W1 tf. That's basic to my top-down analysis as a swing trader.

Trade safe.

KP

Quoting KiwiTrada

Disliked

{quote} your upper tl of channel is not valid, other than range perspective, however your rising lower tl is valid but not accurate...

Ignored

the trend line is bearish also this week mayoral elections also Scottish elections which could see more split from Uk talks

no worries mate, just loving seeing someone looking at tf,s daily and above, presently 1 38108 is previous daily low, with 1 38000 psych in play gap up is expected, 20 sma daily 200 sma 4hrly should be tested, possibly even 1 39000 psych would still support reversal in progress, with present bull train 12 months, any pull back will be considerable, remembering bulls will be reluctant to give up 1 years gains ????

The point is that the technical market structure is still bullish but we are experiencing increased bearish pressure. Trade timing, location and setups will vary based on your trading style but should be important factors to be considered by any trader. I don't trade on Mondays.

KP

Quoting KiwiTrada

Disliked

....presently 1 38108 is previous daily low, with 1 38000 psych in play gap up is expected, 20 sma daily 200 sma 4hrly should be tested, possibly even 1 39000 psych would still support reversal in progress, with present bull train 12 months....

Ignored

Here's the GBPUSD technical outlook from the W1 tf I posted earlier on one of my threads.

On the weekly time frame, market operation has broken below the support trendline of a rising channel (red). In the last two weeks, top-wicked candlesticks of opposing nature and almost equivalent size have printed below the channel support trendline. This technically indicates market ambivalence. While the ‘wicky’ tops may incentivize bulls, the lower wicks of three of the candlesticks printed in the previous four weeks form an equivalent bottom (green) and may attract bearish interest.

Trade safe.

KP