Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 282 | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #5,621
  • Apr 24, 2021 6:52pm Apr 24, 2021 6:52pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} I have used the Square of NIne years ago but found it very time consuming to use it in parallel with all the Hurst tools here. Ace you are welcome to post on this thread your trades, thoughts, results using the Square of Nine This would be stimulating
Parisboy,

Thank you! The Square of Nine is time consuming for sure. Near the end of next week I will post up some of my thoughts, views & even a method I used for a brief period.
  • #5,622
  • Apr 24, 2021 9:17pm Apr 24, 2021 9:17pm
Quoting acetrader
{quote} Parisboy, Thank you! The Square of Nine is time consuming for sure. Near the end of next week I will post up some of my thoughts, views & even a method I used for a brief period.
Ace, here is a spreadsheet that will tell you the next 45 degree angle above and below for the next 100 revolutions. I got it from the trading fives pdf that paris so kindly posted.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Shortcut for Ace.xlsx   19 KB | 406 downloads
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #5,623
  • Apr 25, 2021 6:40am Apr 25, 2021 6:40am
Hurst Cycles market updates

Hello! I have just posted a new market update video. There are a few concepts that I discuss:

  1. The FLD action in the S&P 500 this past week (down, up. down, up!)
  2. Has the 80-day cycle trough formed already? (with a quick look at the FTSE-100).
  3. And I discuss Hurst Cycles targets - how should they be applied?
  4. And finally a quick look at the CML (composite model line) in the S&P 500.
  5. The video is just under 20 minutes long.

Here it is

Inserted Video
  • #5,624
  • Apr 25, 2021 7:02am Apr 25, 2021 7:02am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Ace, here is a spreadsheet that will tell you the next 45 degree angle above and below for the next 100 revolutions. I got it from the trading fives pdf that paris so kindly posted. {file}
jmn5611,

I appreciate that. Thank you! A good cycle (Envelope) indicator that is posted somewhere on Factory would be PB Cycles v1.034.MQ4. One of the best I've seen. Sure beats my efforts with the MT 4 provided Envelopes, or MA's style Envelopes. The is another one posted here that is very good. Best of trades to you my friend.
  • #5,625
  • Apr 25, 2021 5:15pm Apr 25, 2021 5:15pm
Quoting acetrader
{quote} jmn5611, I appreciate that. Thank you! A good cycle (Envelope) indicator that is posted somewhere on Factory would be PB Cycles v1.034.MQ4. One of the best I've seen. Sure beats my efforts with the MT 4 provided Envelopes, or MA's style Envelopes. The is another one posted here that is very good. Best of trades to you my friend.
Ace, I have searched the entire Factory. I have been unable to locate this.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #5,626
  • Apr 25, 2021 5:23pm Apr 25, 2021 5:23pm
Quoting parisboy
Hurst Cycles market updates Hello! I have just posted a new market update video. There are a few concepts that I discuss: The FLD action in the S&P 500 this past week (down, up. down, up!) Has the 80-day cycle trough formed already? (with a quick look at the FTSE-100). And I discuss Hurst Cycles targets - how should they be applied? And finally a quick look at the CML (composite model line) in the S&P 500. The video is just under 20 minutes long. Here it is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdF6W8GE-zc
Alain
Is this you talking in the video?
  • #5,627
  • Apr 25, 2021 5:50pm Apr 25, 2021 5:50pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} Alain Is this you talking in the video?
No it is David Hickson of Sentient Trader
  • #5,628
  • Apr 25, 2021 5:55pm Apr 25, 2021 5:55pm
Cycles - May 1965
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  • #5,629
  • Apr 25, 2021 9:56pm Apr 25, 2021 9:56pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Ace, I have searched the entire Factory. I have been unable to locate this.
All the PB cycle indicators are listed on the paperclip at the top of this forum Page 4... if im reading your post correctly?
All you have to do is determine the input once and all the envelopes adjust ....
  • #5,630
  • Apr 25, 2021 10:00pm Apr 25, 2021 10:00pm
Quoting Swede
{quote} All the PB cycle indicators are listed on the paperclip at the top of this forum...all compliments of Sohocool if im reading you correctly? All you have to do is determine the input once and all the envelopes adjust ....
I looked for the specific model that Ace posted. I do have the others.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #5,631
  • Apr 25, 2021 11:31pm Apr 25, 2021 11:31pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I looked for the specific model that Ace posted. I do have the others.
Page 4 Michael Jenkins trading forum....in the paper clip section...I used it but had to adjust each envelope until Sohocool made it possible to input one setting to adjust all envelopes...anyway that’s where it is
  • #5,632
  • Apr 26, 2021 12:58am Apr 26, 2021 12:58am
Quoting Swede
{quote} Page 4 Michael Jenkins trading forum....in the paper clip section...I used it but had to adjust each envelope until Sohocool made it possible to input one setting to adjust all envelopes...anyway that’s where it is
Thanks. For some reason when I ran a search on the entire Factory I got no hits. I am new to envelopes. I am trying to see if there are any arrows I can add to my quiver. From what I have seen, it seems to help a trader hold until a true extreme is made as well as to keep their powder dry until that point arrives. Once my charts do not look like a child with ADHD drew all over it, I will contribute. I still do not know how best, to adjust the setting. I have been a naked trader for quite some time. Like Paris said, It will time to not be distracted by the lines.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #5,633
  • Edited 5:09am Apr 26, 2021 4:45am | Edited 5:09am
Quoting acetrader
Parisboy, Thank you for your latest replies to me. Valid points you raises about Hurst & his mandates & constraints. Immense pressure. In your view do you believe those you posted above have the true secret/secrets no matter what price they are charging? From what Michael Jenkins said he only knew of 13 who had Gann's true methods. In my view if anyone really has what Gann's true method was...they want be selling it for any price less than million of $'s. In my view these sellers are making their money from selling. Maybe wrong, but don't think...
Ace, David is a very nice guy who developed first the Hurst Trader software which later became Sentient Trader.

My best advice before thinking to invest money into ST is to master Hurst Cyclic Principles and tools as developed on this thread.

IMHO You need that to use profitably ST. Most of all you need invest Time to extract the most of ST as a trading tool.

The contribution of David to Hurst trading world IMHO is :

- David created an excellent Hurst analysis software.
- David posted on Youtube a lot of free videos to explain Hurst tools and methodology
- David improved our knowledge of FLD's showing its limits

But there are IMHO some limitations :

David prefers the Course (Cyclitec 1975) to the book (Profit Magic)
David thinks there is ONE and ONE ONLY Cyclic Model that Hurst labels the Nominal Model even if Hurst showed us at least 3 different Cyclic Models
David put his effort on Hurst Phasing Analysis

IMHO David's behaviour is similar to most ellioticians behaviour . Ellioticians LOVE to count (and recount waves "are we in subwave Y of Wave X ?).

Similarly David loves to identify Cycles and Nest of Lows . Fact is that Cycle Analysts are more precise than elliticians. A Cycle Analyst HAS to determine , even approximately the period (the TIME factor) of each cycle he uses. Ellioticians can endlessly talk about "waves" without even scratch such mundane questions as Amplitude and duration of their beloved waves.

Roughly as many David apply a cyclic model from the top to the market and tries to solve the differences with the real Price with Hurst tools and concepts.

IMHO Hurst's "nominal model" was just the operative model of cycles at work within price Action at the time when Hurst wrote Profit Magic (1970) or its course (1975). That is why Hurs in 5 years shows us 3 different (but related) Cyclic model.

In short the Hurst Nominal Model is an excellent Initial Cyclic Model , Entry Cyclical Analysis model, to analyze whatever financial entity you want.

IMHO Hurst Nominal model is an AVERAGE CYCLIC MODEL. Sentient Trader will give you the difference between this average and price action.

In plain english in the Nominal Model you have a 4,5 Year cycle.

4,5 Years = 4,5 x 12 = 54 months

within Sentient Trader you have a function which allows you to export in an Excel file the Phasing Analysis Sentient Trader has made on the raw data.

In short ST gives you the exact date(s) where it has located Cycle X,Y, Z after having processed its computerized analysis following Hurst Cyclic Nominal Model;

Hereunder you will find the results of the 4,5 Year Cycle for the French CAC 40

Since 1991 Sentient Trader has identified 7 x 4,5 Year (54 months) Cycle

The average difference between Hurst Nominal model 54 months and real Price Action is 5,61 %. = +/- 3 months

In fact 54 months Nominal Cycle fluctuates within - 33% and + 36 %. Hence +/- 18 months

It is why I am not as a big fan of a Phasing Analysis as David
Attached Image
  • #5,634
  • Edited 7:09am Apr 26, 2021 6:56am | Edited 7:09am
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 PB_Cycles_V1.03t.mq4   19 KB | 545 downloads

Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Ace, I have searched the entire Factory. I have been unable to locate this.
jmn5611,

Here you go my friend. This is it if it will attach. I'm not very skilled at this. Seems to work well on all pairs. It was shared at the Michael Jenkins thread. Don't believe you need to make any adjustments once you load it on your charts. I hope it helps.

Awsome it did load. It appears when I sent you the indicator name I had a typo & that probably caused you to be unable to locate it. Sorry.
  • #5,635
  • Apr 26, 2021 7:07am Apr 26, 2021 7:07am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Ace, David is a very nice guy who developed first the Hurst Trader software which later became Sentient Trader. My best advice before thinking to invest money into ST is to master Hurst Cyclic Principles and tools as developed on this thread. IMHO You need that to use profitably ST. Most of all you need invest Time to extract the most of ST as a trading tool. The contribution of David to Hurst trading world IMHO is : - David created an excellent Hurst analysis software. - David posted on Youtube a lot of free videos to explain Hurst tools...
Parisboy,
Thank you for sharing that info on David. I have watched several of his videos & enjoyed each. I do have along way to go in my learning before I would consider a purchase on Sentient Traders. I am just getting started.

I will try to shared how I used Gann Square of Nine, but had a computer crash sometime ago & lost all my documents on what I was doing with Square of Nine. Will try to recreated & share it based on my memory. That may not turn out to well.
  • #5,636
  • Apr 26, 2021 8:20am Apr 26, 2021 8:20am
Quoting acetrader
{file} {quote} jmn5611, Here you go my friend. This is it if it will attach. I'm not very skilled at this. Seems to work well on all pairs. It was shared at the Michael Jenkins thread. Don't believe you need to make any adjustments once you load it on your charts. I hope it helps. Awsome it did load. It appears when I sent you the indicator name I had a typo & that probably caused you to be unable to locate it. Sorry.
Thanks Ace! Now I can participate even more in this very interesting discussion.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #5,637
  • Apr 26, 2021 9:20am Apr 26, 2021 9:20am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Thanks Ace! Now I can participate even more in this very interesting discussion.
@Acetrader, Jnm5611

just be aware you have to set your octaves differently for each pair and each Time frame. Why, because every pair trades with a greater or lesser Average Daily Range.

For example, if you load the V1.03 out of the box on the 5 min chart for Cable the Octave setting is 00625....since we are looking for oversold/ overbought areas to trade such as the outer levels of the 256 envelope you will find it is a long way from price at any given time so a setting of 00500 works much better....if you load this same out of the box setting on the Euro,Usd you will seldom ever reach those outer limits because Euro trades much smaller average range from Gbp pairs so a 00300 setting works much better.

To illustrate, below are the currencies I trade and a snapshot of the 20 day average daily range for each pair that helps me determine an approximation of where the settings should be...the cycles must be adjusted to an area that makes sense, other wise you will get many false signals regarding entries or exits, again based on oversold, overbought conditions.
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  • #5,638
  • Apr 26, 2021 9:30am Apr 26, 2021 9:30am
difference between out of the box setting of 00625 and the adjusted setting 00300 for Euro
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  • #5,639
  • Edited 10:02am Apr 26, 2021 9:37am | Edited 10:02am
And you still have not adjusted the other envelopes......Now the latter versions adjusts all three envelopes with one pip setting.....such as this one...or all the latter versions...
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 PB_CHANNEL_COLOR.ex4   14 KB | 361 downloads
  • #5,640
  • Apr 26, 2021 10:09am Apr 26, 2021 10:09am
Quoting Swede
{quote} @Acetrader, Jnm5611 just be aware you have to set your octaves differently for each pair and each Time frame. Why, because every pair trades with a greater or lesser Average Daily Range. For example, if you load the V1.03 out of the box on the 5 min chart for Cable the Octave setting is 00625....since we are looking for oversold/ overbought areas to trade such as the outer levels of the 256 envelope you will find it is a long way from price at any given time so a setting of 00500 works much better....if you load this same out of the box...

Swede,
Thank you for sharing that. I thought something didn't look right on some pairs. Now I know. Best of trades to you my friend.
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