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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #591,021
  • Apr 22, 2021 3:27pm Apr 22, 2021 3:27pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} So you think all of that happened ,not around the time of GBP core inflation yellow news (cable move under 5 pips on the day on all CPI news all news yesterday) but because of the yellow news expectation before then 24hrs later today cable fell up to 100 pips.
Sometimes the move happens right after the news release sometimes with even 3-5 days of delay. It's about the time big banks & institutions enter. They decide that. I just make my fundamental analysis, and wait for the market to react & work in my way to enter. So i don't jump right after the news.

"Always be 1 or 2 steps of the market but not 3 or 4" - Chris Cathey
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  • #591,022
  • Apr 22, 2021 3:34pm Apr 22, 2021 3:34pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Sometimes the move happens right after the news release sometimes with even 3-5 days of delay. It's about the time big banks & institutions enter. They decide that. I just make my fundamental analysis, and wait for the market to react & work in my way to enter. So i don't jump right after the news. "Always be 1 or 2 steps of the market but not 3 or 4" - Chris Cathey
honestly its not in focus in a way like you posted ,
time will tell
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  • #591,023
  • Apr 22, 2021 3:43pm Apr 22, 2021 3:43pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} honestly its not in focus in a way like you posted , time will tell {image}
I mean no offense, don't get me wrong. But time already told. Core cpi came 0.1% higher than consensus and one day after it fell 100 pips.

In my first posts i wrote that Cable will go up and it did. Also the same for the other 4 pairs that i mentioned.

So the results are clear, also the science behind it is clear, maybe it's not enough for you but it is clear as day for me.
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  • #591,024
  • Apr 22, 2021 3:44pm Apr 22, 2021 3:44pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
Why everyone is buying into this heavy resistance is beyond me...well, see you below 3800.
Very close...lets see if we drop there tomorrow. USDx started a new upwave, should be good for 200-300 pips.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #591,025
  • Edited 4:06pm Apr 22, 2021 3:48pm | Edited 4:06pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} I mean no offense, don't get me wrong. But time already told. Core cpi came 0.1% higher than consensus and one day after it fell 100 pips. In my first posts i wrote that Cable will go up and it did. Also the same for the other 4 pairs that i mentioned. So the results are clear, also the science behind it is clear, maybe it's not enough for you but it is clear as day for me.

yellow news core uk CPI came in as expected ,
you understand thats year on year ,1.1% when the CB want 2%
target 2 is higher than 1 ? the further away from 2 it reads the worse the news gets.
higher CPI is normally more bullish as the calendar tells you....
If you want to believe it then took over 24hrs to drop it 100 pips on that news then what can I say
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  • #591,026
  • Apr 22, 2021 3:57pm Apr 22, 2021 3:57pm
don't bother even reading yellow news ,its not tradable
Ive only ever seen FF calendar wrong a handful of times in well over a decade ,later you can thank me for saving time to arrive at that conclusion

* Filter out yellow and I also filter orange noise,
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  • #591,027
  • Apr 22, 2021 4:05pm Apr 22, 2021 4:05pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} yellow news core uk CPI came in as expected , you understand thats year on year ,1.1% when the CB want 2% If you want to believe it then took over 24hrs to drop it 100 pips what can I say {image}
Oh sorry i confused Uk Core Rate difference with US Core rate difference. Sorry i am busy these days, so many things in my mind. Yes UK's Consensus vs. Actual difference was 0. Which is also bad because UK have +0.3% GDP Growth Rate difference, which, 0 inflation difference couldn't keep up with and caused Cable to fall. Like i quoted from the book, high growth rate differences also cause currency to depriciate.
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  • #591,028
  • Apr 22, 2021 4:07pm Apr 22, 2021 4:07pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} I mean no offense, don't get me wrong. But time already told. Core cpi came 0.1% higher than consensus and one day after it fell 100 pips. In my first posts i wrote that Cable will go up and it did. Also the same for the other 4 pairs that i mentioned. So the results are clear, also the science behind it is clear, maybe it's not enough for you but it is clear as day for me.
You are the only one trading your account,
If whatever we are doing is working for us, that's all we can ask for.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #591,029
  • Apr 22, 2021 4:17pm Apr 22, 2021 4:17pm
Quoting Bones
don't bother even reading yellow news ,its not tradable Ive only ever seen FF calendar wrong a handful of times in well over a decade ,later you can thank me for saving time to arrive at that conclusion * Filter out yellow and I also filter orange noise,
No, you can thank me that i am saving your time while wasting mine by trying to explain basic macroeconomics. I even showed you quotes from the university books written by academicians and you are insisting that FF is better than them.

Whatever floats your boat mate, i did everything to explain my point of view. Good luck.
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  • #591,030
  • Apr 22, 2021 4:17pm Apr 22, 2021 4:17pm
Quoting ChiForex
GU broke below crucial lower support 1.3850s then tested it and couldn't go above again, it's now turned resistance, now focus at 1.3810 that seems gonna break sooner or later and next focus target is not before 1.3730 If this daily candle close below 1.3810 that's very bearish and can accelerate the fall tomorrow, let's see if daily big pips range so far can hold that, bulls have no option than breaking 1.3850s first.
In principle, my said previous supports turned resistance now 1.3850s and 1.3880s can be targetted by the market for a retrace, especially the first but market mood changed seen in market PA and those levels seem to be a dream that might not come through for bulls and 1.3840-45 turning to be the best hope and main goal is only down targets before any real retrace if ever there again
My technical analysis leading trades depend on Daily/Weekly/Monthly Chart
  • #591,031
  • Apr 22, 2021 4:22pm Apr 22, 2021 4:22pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} No, you can thank me that i am saving your time while wasting mine by trying to explain basic macroeconomics. I even showed you quotes from the university books written by academicians and you are insisting that FF is better than them. Whatever floats your boat mate, i did everything to explain my point of view. Good luck.
ok mate
carry on reading yellow
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  • #591,032
  • Apr 22, 2021 4:30pm Apr 22, 2021 4:30pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} ok mate carry on reading yellow {image}
Sorry but i can't hold myself

That's GBP/USD chart and you are showing me an Euro data haha Now i call this a coincidence.

1. That's not even the same currency

2. Even if they were to be correlated, ECB didn't even change the interest rates nor the policy.

Compared to this, even grey news events make more sense
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  • #591,033
  • Apr 22, 2021 4:33pm Apr 22, 2021 4:33pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Sorry but i can't hold myself That's GBP/USD chart and you are showing me an Euro data haha 1. That's not even the same currency 2. Even if they were to be correlated, ECB didn't even change the interest rates nor the policy. Compared to this, even grey news events make more sense
Really???????????
Are you a troll...or what?
  • #591,034
  • Apr 22, 2021 4:37pm Apr 22, 2021 4:37pm
Forum is so funny sometimes
But it's late now, nap time

I think they will sell USD up to next Wed FOMC
IMHO
  • #591,035
  • Apr 22, 2021 4:40pm Apr 22, 2021 4:40pm
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} Really??????????? Are you a troll...or what?
A proper fundamental trader. How about you? A trader with no macroeconomic knowledge who calls people "troll"? Mate thank you for writing me checks via FX Market, always appreciated.
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  • #591,036
  • Edited 4:56pm Apr 22, 2021 4:43pm | Edited 4:56pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Sorry but i can't hold myself That's GBP/USD chart and you are showing me an Euro data haha Now i call this a coincidence. 1. That's not even the same currency 2. Even if they were to be correlated, ECB didn't even change the interest rates nor the policy. Compared to this, even grey news events make more sense
Its red data and when the move started ,
do the with math what you actually see ,
I can show you higher CPI makes GBP go up for an actual fact over a years of recent data ,but your book says something different
you think you understand the book when you can't even apply it to the fact

Conclusion is
take the book back to the book shop
& ask for refund.
Come back when you can tell me how this happened against your theory
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  • #591,037
  • Apr 22, 2021 4:59pm Apr 22, 2021 4:59pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} Its red data and when the move started , do the with math what you actually see , I can show you higher CPI makes GBP go up for an actual fact over a years of recent data ,but your book says something different you think you understand the book when you can't even apply it to the fact Conclusion is take the book back to the book shop & ask for refund. {image}
It didn't affected Pound badly because they raised interest rates, which removed inflation's bearish effects. Like Core CPI raised, Interest rates are raised with them as well!

I know i should just accept the fact that we won't agree with each other and i should move on but i can't. As a Bachelor Economics student i just want to keep arguing
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  • #591,038
  • Apr 22, 2021 5:09pm Apr 22, 2021 5:09pm
Quoting ChiForex
{quote} In principle, my said previous supports turned resistance now 1.3850s and 1.3880s can be targetted by the market for a retrace, especially the first but market mood changed seen in market PA and those levels seem to be a dream that might not come through for bulls and 1.3840-45 turning to be the best hope and main goal is only down targets before any real retrace if ever there again
What is your final target?
  • #591,039
  • Apr 22, 2021 5:29pm Apr 22, 2021 5:29pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} It didn't affected Pound badly because they raised interest rates, which removed inflation's bearish effects. Like Core CPI raised, Interest rates are raised with them as well! I know i should just accept the fact that we won't agree with each other and i should move on but i can't. As a Bachelor Economics student i just want to keep arguing
Like I say, over time your realise your book is technically right but your interpretation is wrong in real life, when applied to currency today.
I would also point to the fact CPI is not a good measure, you will know this because numbers are completely fabricated in Turkey
You can't apply your theory to cable since 2016 to date and that matters if your thinking of trading that theory


Quoting Bones
Peculiarly CPI isn't a good measure of inflation , {image}
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  • #591,040
  • Apr 22, 2021 5:44pm Apr 22, 2021 5:44pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} Like I say, over time your realise your book is technically right but your interpretation is wrong in real life, when applied to currency today. I would also point to the fact CPI is not a good measure, you will know this because numbers are completely fabricated in Turkey You can't apply your theory to cable since 2016 to date and that matters if your thinking of trading that theory {quote}
Yeah due to our fascist government even inflation numbers are under great pressure let alone citizens

Well yeah personally i find GDP Deflator better than CPI but policymakers use Core CPI so i try to stick with them and i hope that the developed economies (US, UK, EU, Japan) are more transparent with those numbers and they are not fabricating it. I can just hope that they are not.

We will see about the results, i am applying this strategy for nearly a year. No problems so far but let's wait and see.
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