Hi to all!! GBPUSD Options: during last days RATIO CALL/PUT crossed above 1.....this should be a bullish signal
Have nice weekend
Have nice weekend
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Disliked{quote} It seems we ended the day on a fork.. which way will next week go? My guesstimate is we could see a slight drop to just below 138 say 13780 before looking at 139. The 4h ended on a bit of a wick so can’t tell for sure.Ignored
Disliked{quote} A low inflation rate means the currency will appreciate. Inflation occurs if the money supply is more than production. So, higher the money surplus, higher the inflation and vice versa. If you are printing 110 $ but producing 100 $ worth of goods and services that means you have %10 money supply surplus and that means you have %10 inflation.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Technically I agree thats a true statement It is not always that way and I can prove it, the main reason is what happens to combat the inflation . They only way to combat general inflation for sure( without pie in the sky economic multiplier expectations) is Higher tax Higher interest rates ,in a currency pair this can wipe out the actual negative you describe. {image} {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} Of course inflation is not the only factor that affects the currency. Just like you said even though cpi was up, interest rates were even higher which erased the negative affects of the cpi. There's three main factors that i look at while trading a currency: 1. Inflation 2. Interest Rates 3. Real GDP Of course there's more factors such as geopolitical events and commodity prices etc. And right now, during the pandemic, policymakers don't raise the interest rates. So we have 2 main factors left. Inflation and Real GDP. That's why i am highlighting...Ignored
Disliked{quote} ok, do you have analysis on those factors ,you are right CB won't raise rates , But the cost of borrowing just sharply bounced out of all time lows ,while CB are sitting on their hands {image}{image}Ignored
DislikedYes ,uk rates also went up then... while BOE hold zero, but ones more bullish then than other due to higher intervention. Sure inflation is also a problem Uk ,in fact that could be the US's greatest export.... So a high Uk CPI would be GBP bullish and low would be bearish next week. Because inflation has to be tackled later with higher rates regardless even if FED or BOE do nothing, the free market where rates are made won't stand by. let's see. {image} {image}Ignored
DislikedWell I say stuff the fundamentals they are meaningless and there is no news that isn't history and if it it history then it has already happened. I believe what I see and to deny the reality is to just be fooling yourself. The market is currently trading above the average, I don't THINK it is I know it is. Only an idiot would deny this fact. The charts tell the story not the fundamentals . When the chart changes we change, it is as simple as that. {image} AmenIgnored
Disliked{quote} Fundamentals can be interesting to discuss, however, like yourself, I am tech guy also.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Not sure about that, we want as little as possible messing with our mind. It is all too easy to form preconceived notions and then stick religiously to them despite evidence to the contrary. How often do we see people hanging on to trades with massive drawdowns because they are convinced the market will turn in their favour.Ignored
DislikedWell I say stuff the fundamentals they are meaningless and there is no news that isn't history and if it it history then it has already happened. I believe what I see and to deny the reality is to just be fooling yourself. The market is currently trading above the average, I don't THINK it is I know it is. Only an idiot would deny this fact. The charts tell the story not the fundamentals . When the chart changes we change, it is as simple as that. {image} AmenIgnored
DislikedWell I say stuff the fundamentals they are meaningless and there is no news that isn't history and if it it history then it has already happened. I believe what I see and to deny the reality is to just be fooling yourself. The market is currently trading above the average, I don't THINK it is I know it is. Only an idiot would deny this fact. The charts tell the story not the fundamentals . When the chart changes we change, it is as simple as that. {image} AmenIgnored
Disliked{quote} Your perspective is interesting. Trading is about ideas. Even though i don't agree with you, it's always nice to know other logical ideas backed with statistics. It was a nice conversation and i will keep these things in mind and watch. If UK Core CPI data comes low, i am bullish. We will see what happens. Good luck!Ignored