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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #589,261
  • Apr 13, 2021 11:40am Apr 13, 2021 11:40am
After the News and US inflation numbers today and all that drama of cable up and down, what has happened finally is that Cable kept its place around 1.3740 and the DXY fell like hell. It happens to be a perfect platform for cable to go down as the DXY starts climbing again.
Again just an observation.
My observation may be wrong but intent correct. Stay calm!
  • #589,262
  • Apr 13, 2021 11:44am Apr 13, 2021 11:44am
Quoting Moty
{quote} {image}
Base on h1 maybe, my view on daily 1650 soon soon soon.. so i dont buy gold yet.
  • #589,263
  • Apr 13, 2021 12:13pm Apr 13, 2021 12:13pm
Quoting mtako
{quote} Patience is necessary again. These opens above 40 is a good sign But still have to get out of some of my longs if 50 not broken before the end of the hour. Although anything can happen, it is not worth it for me to hang around the top of a well established range for this long, unless absolutely no sign of selling happen beyond that time, but is very unlikely. Thats it for me then. Have a good night all, wishing to all the very best as always !!!

Times up, its starting now or not today, moved all SLs at BE, and if lucky, grabbing a little profits around 55- 60, rest open for 1.4 as always !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #589,264
  • Apr 13, 2021 12:17pm Apr 13, 2021 12:17pm
Quoting Ehminiz
IMO: A break above 37700 will be a good run.
37700 still needs to be broken for a good bull run.
I might be wrong.
Attached Image
#Stay blue. /swinger/scalper/
  • #589,265
  • Apr 13, 2021 12:24pm Apr 13, 2021 12:24pm
Quoting gatenio
{quote} Base on h1 maybe, my view on daily 1650 soon soon soon.. so i dont buy gold yet.
I hate to guess
but, let's talk
if UP - not more than 1754th (big ?)..,
tomorrow PP will be around 1740 (?!) - range 1745 -1735 (?)
and
probably be ready for Thursday
for some move down
1720
1705 and more...
dolce vita
  • #589,266
  • Apr 13, 2021 12:28pm Apr 13, 2021 12:28pm
all out !!!
gu will not go up more today
ugly day, 23 $ in profit
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yes yes yes
  • #589,267
  • Apr 13, 2021 12:42pm Apr 13, 2021 12:42pm
Quoting Moty
all out !!! gu will not go up more today ugly day, 23 $ in profit {image}
Anyway, just thinking why Moty? today has been as ugly as it can get, but I continue to surf the waves,
Cheers.
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Trade to trade another day
  • #589,268
  • Apr 13, 2021 1:44pm Apr 13, 2021 1:44pm
asap 1.3650
  • #589,269
  • Apr 13, 2021 2:02pm Apr 13, 2021 2:02pm
Quoting babayaga
{quote} I hate to guess but, let's talk if UP - not more than 1754th (big ?).., tomorrow PP will be around 1740 (?!) - range 1745 -1735 (?) and probably be ready for Thursday for some move down 1720 1705 and more...
Excellent prediction.
lets see
  • #589,270
  • Apr 13, 2021 2:05pm Apr 13, 2021 2:05pm
closed cable, sell, +2 pips & gj, sell +65 pips (gj, old one left )
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see you
thank you
dolce vita
  • #589,271
  • Apr 13, 2021 2:24pm Apr 13, 2021 2:24pm
Quoting gatenio
{quote} Excellent prediction. lets see
I like your sense of humor, gatenio, I really do

thank you for your advice about TP for gold today,
it matters to me

what more can I say
let's try to catch it on the way down
dolce vita
  • #589,272
  • Apr 13, 2021 3:53pm Apr 13, 2021 3:53pm
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Sellers stepped in twice around 1.3770.. then pump and dump for CPI. Now dollar is sliding, wait and see. That 1.369x area held really strong again. {quote} I might do the full switch- I always get disappointed by the other pairs. To me cable has a very particular 'look' when it's about to make a big move so it's pretty easy to get a good scalp entry with a tight stop. It's a dream for intraday traders if you're happy to get in and out quickly, even reverse direction quickly for extra profit.
Starting to shift in my view. With yields sliding it looks like the dollar may slide further, possibly due to the worsening corona situation. I thought maybe rising inflation would signal the opposite but it appears not. https://www.ft.com/content/1fa1641a-...7-e131845c8888

We do have GU looking like it may move up on the daily, it's been looking like accumulation on a daily demand level. So potentially ready for long breakout tomorrow. On the other hand dxy has been dropping for a while and is on a daily demand with a gap to fill higher up. Will follow the price as usual. No point getting married to a point of view if the market is hinting otherwise.
  • #589,273
  • Apr 13, 2021 4:02pm Apr 13, 2021 4:02pm
Quoting Bones
Peculiarly CPI isn't a good measure of inflation ,but still it gets to the point you can't hide it. Retail sales would literally be what they sold, I'm thinking that would be the better gauge to where we are at. Why scam CPI numbers? 1 social security 2 gov workers wage 3 military retirees 4 food stamps 5 real GDP 6 adjusts tax brackets a) The past CPI measure is =cost of goods b) The latest CPI measure is =cost of living Which basically means they can adjust any rise rather than an actual rise in price.Theres a human element open to interpretation...
In all this, what the BOE did
The FED printed a lot (the printers are on fire), the ECB printed a lot ... BOE?
For months there were rumors of negative interest rates, but they did nothing atm.

They doubled their Asset Purchase Facility. It's 900B enough?
Didn't they do anything else? Is there anything else they can do?
What do you think about?
  • #589,274
  • Apr 13, 2021 4:20pm Apr 13, 2021 4:20pm
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} In all this, what the BOE did The FED printed a lot (the printers are on fire), the ECB printed a lot ... BOE? For months there were rumors of negative interest rates, but they did nothing atm. They doubled their Asset Purchase Facility. It's 900B enough? Didn't they do anything else? Is there anything else they can do? What do you think about?
You're right all Western countries are painted into a corner ,
I don't spend much time considering Uk because I don''t think the scale pro rata is any where near the same.
US is attempting growing out of the problem and UK will attempt austerity at that level of debt.
The Uk central bank is more independent than US ,but neither are truly independent as they should be.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #589,275
  • Apr 13, 2021 4:47pm Apr 13, 2021 4:47pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} You're right all Western countries are painted into a corner , I don't spend much time considering Uk because I don''t think the scale pro rata is any where near the same. US is attempting growing out of the problem and UK will attempt austerity at that level of debt. The Uk central bank is more independent than US ,but neither are truly independent as they should be. {image}
I started to consider about BOE when one month ago I saw GBP turning bearish, in my analyzes on Daily/Weekly charts, on almost all pairs (waiting for 1.30 on GBPUSD)
Also, if you look about stocks, UK100, US500 and DAX. The UK100 is the only one under the level before the COVID-19. US500 and DAX are pushed from the fresh money.

So the expectation now could be a faster bearish action for the US500 and DAX when central banks stop printing (or before...)??? While UK will remain stable ?? Time will tell

Anyway it seems strange to me, from someone like Boris Johnson I would have expected an "aggressive" monetary policy for this period. Maybe it didn't happen because the BOE is more independent, as you say. Or maybe I don't know enough about British politics

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  • #589,276
  • Apr 13, 2021 5:03pm Apr 13, 2021 5:03pm
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} I started to consider about BOE when one month ago I saw GBP turning bearish, in my analyzes on Daily/Weekly charts, on almost all pairs (waiting for 1.30 on GBPUSD) Also, if you look about stocks, UK100, US500 and DAX. The UK100 is the only one under the level before the COVID-19. US500 and DAX are pushed from the fresh money. So the expectation now could be a faster bearish action for the US500 and DAX when central banks stop printing (or before...)??? While UK will remain stable ?? Time will tell Anyway it seems strange to me, from someone...
yes your charts highlights stimulus difference probably ,I don't follow the FTSE because its so boring
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #589,277
  • Apr 13, 2021 5:21pm Apr 13, 2021 5:21pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} yes your charts highlights stimulus difference probably ,I don't follow the FTSE because its so boring {image}
So, since last year GBP has gone up to 1.42 because the FED has printed so many USD, the dollar has devalued, weakened ... BOE has printed much less and therefore GBP has been stronger up to 1.42

This is clear

Now perhaps the market sees the strength of the US economy, so USD gains strength. While they also see possible austerity in the UK, then GBP loses strength. Possible return to 1.30

Waiting for Powell to say when and how the stimulus will be decreased/stopped, then we could understand if there is a possibility for GBPUSD to rise towards 1.50, maybe, in several months. In the US they will also have a strong economy, but they will find themselves with a huge debt and a tax increase, the economy will suffer it

IMHO
  • #589,278
  • Edited 8:54pm Apr 13, 2021 5:24pm | Edited 8:54pm
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} Or maybe I don't know enough about British politics {image}{image}{image}
Politically speaking
the British will not accept bad money management and I would point to Corbyn who just had the worst defeat ever with a high spending program sweets for everyone.
Against the US, which Im amazed, the deficit has been accepted as a way of life whoever is in power.

I'm confident in saying the the political Uk majority of citizens will reject MMT.

'Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a heterodox macroeconomic framework that says monetarily sovereign countries like the U.S., U.K., Japan, and Canada, which spend, tax, and borrow in a fiat currency they fully control, are not operationally constrained by revenues when it comes to government spending.'
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #589,279
  • Apr 13, 2021 8:14pm Apr 13, 2021 8:14pm
Quoting mtako
Managed to safely enter again at 34, watching 40-50 level carefully. Another failure and this could be it for the bulls for a while... And good selling opportunities will arise again. Waiting for middle of range to be above 3750 to consider more longs. Soonest will probably be tomorrow, but you never know !

Volatility growing timidly after hours of decline and stagnation. Worth walking through an opening door. Buy stop @ 1.37636. Just adding to longs. SL and reverse for a range trade @1.37498. Expiry in 15 minutes. That is my max with this pair on ASIA

Happy wednesday all !!!
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #589,280
  • Apr 13, 2021 8:53pm Apr 13, 2021 8:53pm
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Plan for Wednesday . will see PA mover if can break or not
"Buy Cheap and Sell Expensive , Its Market Anyways where People Get profit"
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