Weekly Summary
A > 13week awr week just closed with a pip range which is 118% of that metric. A heavily bearish week as this market from Tuesday onwards (after the bank hols,) likely reacted to the NFP # on the Friday before, and then the growing concerns re Astra Zeneca vaccine jab rollout in the Uk. The month of April so far has seen price travel 53% of the 463pip 6mth amr.
The Wkly candle closed very bearishly and this t/f after the HH @ 4242 then the HL @ 3670 has now seen the week's low equal or very slightly exceed this and any more downside next week will at some point result in a L in it's general fractal uptrend. Price has now twice breached the 'main' ascending t/line on this t/f firstly the one joining 1411 with 2854, and now this week the 'new' one joining 1411 with that 3670. (Effective rising wedges) Is this significant? The general fractal uptrend on this t/f likely remains intact but is damaged.
Friday's Dly candle closed bearishly but with a longer lower wick than upper after finding support @ that prev 4hr/dly/wkly swing lo zone extending to 3670. This t/f is probably in a general fractal downtrend now, (particularly if there is more downside next week.) It's last few fractal prints since that 3809 HL are LH, L, LH, HL, H and what will be another L when a 3 candle fractal forms. A note of caution for longer-term bears -There is still a falling wedge on this dly t/f.
The 4hr t/f is in a general fractal downtrend. The last candle print of the week on this t/f (gmt+3) was very bearish and formed a 4th consecutive fractal LH @ 3744. There could be a steeper falling wedge pattern on this t/f too?
What next? Well, as usual none of us know for sure. You might deduce from the weekly to 4hr chart that more downside looks like the most probable outcome but to what extent none of us know. Whatever the case there will be selling and buying opportunities created by next week's price discovery and whatever t/f's we operate on, we should always be guided by price. Should the prev 4hr/dly/wkly swing lo zone to 3670 break to the downside the next 'major' potential support zone is another prev 4hr/dly/wkly sw lo zone that extends down to 3566. There are of course the ubiquitous fibs of the main swing lo's to 4242 in-between the Friday lo and that prev swing lo zone to 3566, but there are no more ascending trend lines on any t/f to the mthly.
Highlights in known event risks scheduled for the coming week will likely be Fed Chair Powell banging his gums together again on Monday, with Uk Gdp and U.s Cpi on Tuesday, (a lot of attention on that one most likely!) Powell speaks again Wednesday, before U.s Retail sales on Thursday. Some other fed/fomc-types support acts also doing a turn next week too.
Wkly, Dly, then 4hr below.
G/L in the coming week to all.
A > 13week awr week just closed with a pip range which is 118% of that metric. A heavily bearish week as this market from Tuesday onwards (after the bank hols,) likely reacted to the NFP # on the Friday before, and then the growing concerns re Astra Zeneca vaccine jab rollout in the Uk. The month of April so far has seen price travel 53% of the 463pip 6mth amr.
The Wkly candle closed very bearishly and this t/f after the HH @ 4242 then the HL @ 3670 has now seen the week's low equal or very slightly exceed this and any more downside next week will at some point result in a L in it's general fractal uptrend. Price has now twice breached the 'main' ascending t/line on this t/f firstly the one joining 1411 with 2854, and now this week the 'new' one joining 1411 with that 3670. (Effective rising wedges) Is this significant? The general fractal uptrend on this t/f likely remains intact but is damaged.
Friday's Dly candle closed bearishly but with a longer lower wick than upper after finding support @ that prev 4hr/dly/wkly swing lo zone extending to 3670. This t/f is probably in a general fractal downtrend now, (particularly if there is more downside next week.) It's last few fractal prints since that 3809 HL are LH, L, LH, HL, H and what will be another L when a 3 candle fractal forms. A note of caution for longer-term bears -There is still a falling wedge on this dly t/f.
The 4hr t/f is in a general fractal downtrend. The last candle print of the week on this t/f (gmt+3) was very bearish and formed a 4th consecutive fractal LH @ 3744. There could be a steeper falling wedge pattern on this t/f too?
What next? Well, as usual none of us know for sure. You might deduce from the weekly to 4hr chart that more downside looks like the most probable outcome but to what extent none of us know. Whatever the case there will be selling and buying opportunities created by next week's price discovery and whatever t/f's we operate on, we should always be guided by price. Should the prev 4hr/dly/wkly swing lo zone to 3670 break to the downside the next 'major' potential support zone is another prev 4hr/dly/wkly sw lo zone that extends down to 3566. There are of course the ubiquitous fibs of the main swing lo's to 4242 in-between the Friday lo and that prev swing lo zone to 3566, but there are no more ascending trend lines on any t/f to the mthly.
Highlights in known event risks scheduled for the coming week will likely be Fed Chair Powell banging his gums together again on Monday, with Uk Gdp and U.s Cpi on Tuesday, (a lot of attention on that one most likely!) Powell speaks again Wednesday, before U.s Retail sales on Thursday. Some other fed/fomc-types support acts also doing a turn next week too.
Wkly, Dly, then 4hr below.
G/L in the coming week to all.
Intraday swing trader @ 30min+ supp/res, & 5min+ sbr/rbs, via 1min+ set-ups
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