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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #588,921
  • Apr 10, 2021 11:04am Apr 10, 2021 11:04am
Quoting helioss
LONG TERM CHART is VERY INTERESTING: * 23/03 breakout UPTREND CHANNEL + BREAKOUT DOUBLE BOTTOM, so SHORT SIGNAL with P&F TP .3300. Week when COT shows how MOOD is CHANGING Now quotes are into DOWNTREND CHANNEL and DOUBLE BOTTOM is exactly 32% FIbonacci retrace .3650. THis is the LAST DEFENCE LINE for BULLs If it will be broken next REVERSAL ZONE Orange will be .345/.3300 according to P&F TP A return over .3950 will show all Bull Strenght & retest maximum I can be wrong but it's very evocative {image}
Work Of Art HAA

Nice Chart

Market Structure Still point Gbp down currently. If it breaks 1.36820 probably more down

Nice charts crosses and zeros representing volume Clearly I would say

HAHA

Ok See You
  • #588,922
  • Apr 10, 2021 11:12am Apr 10, 2021 11:12am
Quoting helioss
LONG TERM CHART is VERY INTERESTING: * 23/03 breakout UPTREND CHANNEL + BREAKOUT DOUBLE BOTTOM, so SHORT SIGNAL with P&F TP .3300. Week when COT shows how MOOD is CHANGING Now quotes are into DOWNTREND CHANNEL and DOUBLE BOTTOM is exactly 32% FIbonacci retrace .3650. THis is the LAST DEFENCE LINE for BULLs If it will be broken next REVERSAL ZONE Orange will be .345/.3300 according to P&F TP A return over .3950 will show all Bull Strenght & retest maximum I can be wrong but it's very evocative {image}
Yeah Could Fall to 1.34500 to 1.33000 but have to see how Market Structure moves from 1.36820

If it will bounce its enjoyable ride up up up till there
  • #588,923
  • Apr 10, 2021 11:15am Apr 10, 2021 11:15am
Maybe Little profits if anybody not too watching HaHa

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Nobody is watching baby dont worry not even your husband and not even your?
  • #588,924
  • Apr 10, 2021 11:25am Apr 10, 2021 11:25am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Guys, Thank you for the kind words. It makes me very happy that I can be a guiding light to some. Anyway, it is a win-win situation for me. The more I post here the more I concentrate on my trading and the better I perform. We move on from here. I can understand why some see this area as a very important line in the sand for bulls and bears. 1.3672 is also my yearly open line. We had a perfect bounce the previous 2 weeks in this area. Here's the thing though. Can bulls withstand the 3rd onslaught?. Today is a very important...
Hi Guys,
On a precautionary note. Swing trading is never an easy feat. I was hoping that price would smash through 1.3672. It never happened and price came to rest just above 1.3700. I will see what happens early next week.

Here is what I think the big boyz could do. I have attached my weekly chart. They could possibly take price up for the next week or two. I am not basing this on chance but a study of my previous swings. I have highlighted it in yellow on my chart. Price could be taken up above last week's high and by estimation, the mid-round number 1.39500. There is a good chance that most of my sell trades could be taken out before the drop, nevertheless, I am aware of this and will act accordingly.
Food for thought.
Cheers
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Trade to trade another day
  • #588,925
  • Apr 10, 2021 12:17pm Apr 10, 2021 12:17pm
Quoting M.Fadly
https://youtu.be/bWLpLVezZ2o

Here is what is going to happen!!! There is now space to go down on the screen so it will go up after that LOL
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  • #588,926
  • Edited 3:54pm Apr 10, 2021 12:32pm | Edited 3:54pm
Over 100 years ago, life was that simple.
It's become complicated because of all the intervention then unintended consequences then other solutions .It's evolved into a Frankenstein of an ugly system.
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Main take away from the money image posted is clearly there are two circuits and they're not connected .They might leak but not connected.
If you think any more simplistic than this you may as well give up trying.
Our side is ballooned with new money in the last 12 months, on the other side banks are stuffed with debt already . The government are the link & can goto/affect both circuits.
Whats not to get ?

so, the FED have not raised rates
also the FED say we won't raise rates
but blow me down actual mortgage rates are going up ,
then you know you're wrong thinking they won't go up on the FED's say so or not.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #588,927
  • Apr 10, 2021 1:17pm Apr 10, 2021 1:17pm
let's draw trend lines
...btw, nobody knows where she will go
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dolce vita
  • #588,928
  • Apr 10, 2021 2:39pm Apr 10, 2021 2:39pm
Didnt end well for the bulls in the end yesterday! Had to close both my longs.

Will reenter no lower than 3718, if the move is right. Or in any new strong enough reversal coming from below 3700.

As long as it plays around 1.36 and 1.38, am mostly range trading both ways but keeping some longs at BE, Going for 1.4

If it doesnt completely reverse next week, above .38, daily trend trading will probably have to be even more patient !

Momentum might have the time to built up enough for this steady, smooth and cool down movement towards .36 to pursue or even accelerate !, at the very least; Then I would be looking at .34 miam !

But that is the least probable scenario for now.

A plan for every possible outcome , but wont bore you with any more rambling


Probably going to live a couple of weeks of whipsaw before a durable direction can be established ?

Lonely weekend....
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #588,929
  • Apr 10, 2021 2:45pm Apr 10, 2021 2:45pm
Quoting Bones
Over 100 years ago, life was that simple. It's become complicated because of all the intervention then unintended consequences then other solutions .It's evolved into a Frankenstein of an ugly system. {image} Main take away from the money image posted is clearly there are two circuits and they're not connected .They might leak but not connected. Our side is ballooned with new money in the last 12 months, on the other side banks are stuffed with debt already . The government are the link & can goto/affect both circuits. Whats not to get ? so, the...
The return of mortgage rates to June's levels last year, together with house prices growth, contributed to a slowdown quantity of mortgage applications for purchases and refinancing. In this way, the Fed influences the banks so that they give out fewer mortgage loans.
If you look at the inflation structure, you will see that the growth is driven by higher energy prices and higher import prices (mainly from China). In such a situation, inflation is growing due to external factors, not due to consumer activity growth within the country.
The Fed does not want to find itself where inflation is growing, and the economy is not. Therefore, it is trying to reduce prices by non-monetary methods, including prices in the housing market.
Anyway, what difference does it make the Fed is going to hike rates or not if the market expects to hike rates yet?
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  • #588,930
  • Apr 10, 2021 2:48pm Apr 10, 2021 2:48pm
enjoy

Inserted Video
dolce vita
  • #588,931
  • Edited 5:41pm Apr 10, 2021 5:02pm | Edited 5:41pm
Quoting Bones
Over 100 years ago, life was that simple. It's become complicated because of all the intervention then unintended consequences then other solutions .It's evolved into a Frankenstein of an ugly system. {image} Main take away from the money image posted is clearly there are two circuits and they're not connected .They might leak but not connected. If you think any more simplistic than this you may as well give up trying. Our side is ballooned with new money in the last 12 months, on the other side banks are stuffed with debt already . The government...
The question is, how long will that continue?
Transitory or longer term?
When will Covid allow the economy to return to and go beyond previous employment levels?

What will be the Fed response and how effective will it be?
The fed obviously want to suppress yields https://www.forexfactory.com/news/10...n#post13489444
More QE? Increase it's balance sheet at a more rapid pace?

How will other market participants respond if this happens. (I remember the market dumped their securities very quickly when the Fed started it's very first taper tantrum to REDUCE it's balance sheet way back when).

The next trading related questions might be:
When will the Fed run out of bullets?
What is the actual limit of their expanding balance sheet? Is there are limit? What IS that limit?
When will market interest rates go out of control?
What is the likely future USD direction over say, the next quarter?

I agree, it is much more complicated now than 100 years ago. This makes time related prediction more difficult in my opinion.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #588,932
  • Apr 10, 2021 5:19pm Apr 10, 2021 5:19pm
I remember holding a "candle" for 2633 back in September last year.
I had forgotten about her....
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Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #588,933
  • Edited Apr 11, 2021 2:23pm Apr 10, 2021 5:42pm | Edited Apr 11, 2021 2:23pm
Quoting trumps
{quote} The question is, how long will that continue? Transitory or longer term? What will be the Fed response and how effective will it be? The fed obviously want to suppress yields https://www.forexfactory.com/news/10...n#post13489444 More QE? The next trading related questions might be: When will the Fed run out of bullets? What is the actual limit of their expanding balance sheet? Is there are limit? What IS that limit? When will market interest rates go out of control? What is the likely future...
So yea that link says they're going to buy further out the curve not more.We know the average is 5 years maturity right now ,I think they pay about 1-2% on average across all debt .
Thats ok as long as they don't lose control completely.
In the UK when I brought my first home the next year intrest rates sky rocketed.The government lost all control and that left me with an asset half its purchase price for a long time.

QE experiment adds to the debt, which lets call it cost $400-500 billion net interest in 2019 out of 3.5T income.Thats a lot when the US spend 1 Trillion over anyway every year on average .(10-12Y timeframe)
Last 12 months, the debt has gone up a lot and interest rates have gone up.The point is the FED can't afford higher rates or the world for that matter.
The cost of borrowing is the limit to any FED intervention .So you can see interest rates have gone down and debt up ,so net cost of debt has been stable over time.
But theres no more room for interest rates to go down, yet debt will continue up...
It all depends on how bad it plays out.We talk debt high enough that a very small move in rates costs a fortune and a sustained normalise in rates is not possible ,without devouring the tax income.

The Fed is blindfolded ,it will always make huge mistakes rather than letting the market be free,
They are moving up the curve feeling their way, because all they can do is react.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #588,934
  • Edited 10:23pm Apr 10, 2021 7:38pm | Edited 10:23pm
Weekly Summary
A > 13week awr week just closed with a pip range which is 118% of that metric. A heavily bearish week as this market from Tuesday onwards (after the bank hols,) likely reacted to the NFP # on the Friday before, and then the growing concerns re Astra Zeneca vaccine jab rollout in the Uk. The month of April so far has seen price travel 53% of the 463pip 6mth amr.

The Wkly candle closed very bearishly and this t/f after the HH @ 4242 then the HL @ 3670 has now seen the week's low equal or very slightly exceed this and any more downside next week will at some point result in a L in it's general fractal uptrend. Price has now twice breached the 'main' ascending t/line on this t/f firstly the one joining 1411 with 2854, and now this week the 'new' one joining 1411 with that 3670. (Effective rising wedges) Is this significant? The general fractal uptrend on this t/f likely remains intact but is damaged.

Friday's Dly candle closed bearishly but with a longer lower wick than upper after finding support @ that prev 4hr/dly/wkly swing lo zone extending to 3670. This t/f is probably in a general fractal downtrend now, (particularly if there is more downside next week.) It's last few fractal prints since that 3809 HL are LH, L, LH, HL, H and what will be another L when a 3 candle fractal forms. A note of caution for longer-term bears -There is still a falling wedge on this dly t/f.

The 4hr t/f is in a general fractal downtrend. The last candle print of the week on this t/f (gmt+3) was very bearish and formed a 4th consecutive fractal LH @ 3744. There could be a steeper falling wedge pattern on this t/f too?

What next? Well, as usual none of us know for sure. You might deduce from the weekly to 4hr chart that more downside looks like the most probable outcome but to what extent none of us know. Whatever the case there will be selling and buying opportunities created by next week's price discovery and whatever t/f's we operate on, we should always be guided by price. Should the prev 4hr/dly/wkly swing lo zone to 3670 break to the downside the next 'major' potential support zone is another prev 4hr/dly/wkly sw lo zone that extends down to 3566. There are of course the ubiquitous fibs of the main swing lo's to 4242 in-between the Friday lo and that prev swing lo zone to 3566, but there are no more ascending trend lines on any t/f to the mthly.

Highlights in known event risks scheduled for the coming week will likely be Fed Chair Powell banging his gums together again on Monday, with Uk Gdp and U.s Cpi on Tuesday, (a lot of attention on that one most likely!) Powell speaks again Wednesday, before U.s Retail sales on Thursday. Some other fed/fomc-types support acts also doing a turn next week too.

Wkly, Dly, then 4hr below.

G/L in the coming week to all.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #588,935
  • Apr 10, 2021 11:56pm Apr 10, 2021 11:56pm
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Like me, cuts losses quickly. But has more patience and lets his winn
  • #588,936
  • Apr 11, 2021 5:24am Apr 11, 2021 5:24am
Quoting Bones
{quote} So yea that link says they're going to buy further out the curve not more.We know the average is 5 years maturity right now ,I think they pay about 1-2% on average across all debt . Thats ok as long as they don't lose control completely. In the UK when I brought my first home the next year intrest rates sky rocketed.The government lost all control and that left me with an asset half its purchase price for a long time. QE experiment adds to the debt which lets call it 400-500 billion net interest in 2019 out of 3.8T income.Thats a lot when...
Most of your explanations goes on the side of my head but I would like to understand this equation

Internet + Demo = Expert - Attitude- Time=Bone

Zunks

HAHA
  • #588,937
  • Apr 11, 2021 6:07am Apr 11, 2021 6:07am
Knock Knock One More Goes Down

Astrazenecas going good? Hey Gbp Seriously I havent Still got vaccinated.

I am Thinking of something....you want to know what....

Ok See You
  • #588,938
  • Apr 11, 2021 6:21am Apr 11, 2021 6:21am
Quoting TrTT
Knock Knock One More Goes Down Astrazenecas going good? Hey Gbp Seriously I havent Still got vaccinated. I am Thinking of something....you want to know what.... Ok See You
I can't wait for this summer when we are all Jabbed UP!!

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/med...?ocid=msedgntp
Don't trade what you think. Just what you see!!!
  • #588,939
  • Apr 11, 2021 6:52am Apr 11, 2021 6:52am
Quoting Theoak
{quote} I can't wait for this summer when we are all Jabbed UP!! https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/med...?ocid=msedgntp
HAHA Ok
  • #588,940
  • Apr 11, 2021 7:17am Apr 11, 2021 7:17am
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