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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #588,901
  • Apr 10, 2021 3:23am Apr 10, 2021 3:23am
Quoting Bones
Next week we have US inflation type data. A major concept to think about is the money thats been dropped.I have another version of the two economies that exist rough sketch. The major point is the two economy situ and why it's not a 2008 or actually any other time in history occasion. When you bank your money into your bank its not a bank asset but a bank liability. It is fractional reserve held at the FED .So in round numbers you put in 1k they can lend out up to 900 and send 100 to FED on reserve, is how I understand that part. What we do in our...
What is the trading related message behind all this?
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #588,902
  • Apr 10, 2021 3:54am Apr 10, 2021 3:54am
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #588,903
  • Apr 10, 2021 3:57am Apr 10, 2021 3:57am
Quoting Bones
Next week we have US inflation type data. A major concept to think about is the money thats been dropped.I have another version of the two economies that exist rough sketch. The major point is the two economy situ and why it's not a 2008 or actually any other time in history occasion. When you bank your money into your bank its not a bank asset but a bank liability. It is fractional reserve held at the FED .So in round numbers you put in 1k they can lend out up to 900 and send 100 to FED on reserve, is how I understand that part. What we do in our...
Those growing commodity prices correlate perfectly to a weakening $ over the same period, which makes perfect sense, since commodities priced in USD, become more expensive as the $ weakens.

If the prices aren't coming down anytime soon, what does that say about the future value of the USD?
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #588,904
  • Apr 10, 2021 4:06am Apr 10, 2021 4:06am
Quoting trumps
{quote} Those growing commodity prices correlate perfectly to a weakening $ over the same period, which makes perfect sense, since commodities priced in USD, become more expensive as the $ weakens. If the prices aren't coming down anytime soon, what does that say about the future value of the USD?
ok ,how come the $ went up and commodities in the last Q
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #588,905
  • Apr 10, 2021 4:10am Apr 10, 2021 4:10am
Quoting trumps
{quote} What is the trading related message behind all this?
what you don't think interest rates matter to a currency direction when yields sit at all time lows,
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #588,906
  • Apr 10, 2021 4:10am Apr 10, 2021 4:10am
Quoting Bones
{quote} ok ,how come the $ went up and commodities in the last Q
start of transitory inflation.
I still don't know what your trading message is.
USD going up soon?
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #588,907
  • Apr 10, 2021 4:13am Apr 10, 2021 4:13am
Quoting Bones
{quote} what you don't think interest rates matter to a currency direction when yields sit at all time lows,
Interest rates?
What you are talking about?
Are you assuming interest rates will go up soon?

That would be a good trading related message
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #588,908
  • Apr 10, 2021 4:17am Apr 10, 2021 4:17am
I've got to be honest with you Bones, your graphs a bit beyond my understanding, no matter how many times you post them.
Personally (and this is just me speaking), I digest simple messages much better.

From what I have gathered, you expect the Fed to raise interest rates soon?
Or you expect banks to raise their interest rates regardless of what the Fed does?
Or something else?

Interest rates and currency value is something I understand.
However, I have noticed that when the Fed TALKS about raising rates, the market responds almost immediately, so that by the time they DO raise rates, it is all priced in and the $ starts to fall again.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #588,909
  • Apr 10, 2021 4:21am Apr 10, 2021 4:21am
The Fed have TALKED about NOT raising rates for the foreseeable future
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #588,910
  • Edited 4:33am Apr 10, 2021 4:22am | Edited 4:33am
Quoting trumps
{quote} Interest rates? What you are talking about? Are you assuming interest rates will go up soon? That would be a good trading related message
Im not assuming

Interest must go up
Tax must go up
Productivity must go up
Gov spending must go down
Debt must go down

Take your pick/mix ,
or
least likely, believe the FED have got this
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #588,911
  • Apr 10, 2021 4:27am Apr 10, 2021 4:27am
Quoting trumps
The Fed have TALKED about NOT raising rates for the foreseeable future
if the fed control interest rates why are the yields going up ? they can only influence the rates.
How they do it is by rhetoric or monetise debt to buy more debt .At the moment they mostly buy the short term debt to hold it down and roll it over.
at a rate of at least 120billion per month inc mortgage backed securities
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #588,912
  • Apr 10, 2021 4:30am Apr 10, 2021 4:30am
Quoting Bones
{quote} Im not assuming Interest must go up Tax must go up Productivity must go up Gov spending must go down Debt must go down Take your pick ,or least likely believe the FED have got this
Ok thanks for that
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #588,913
  • Apr 10, 2021 4:30am Apr 10, 2021 4:30am
Quoting Bones
{quote} if the fed control interest rates why are the yields going up ,they can only influence the rates. How they do it is by rhetoric or monetise debt to buy more debt .At the moment they buy the short term debt to hold it down and roll it over. at a rate of 120billion per month inc mortgage backed securities
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #588,914
  • Edited 5:31am Apr 10, 2021 4:44am | Edited 5:31am
They can control the interest rates like you say but only if they buy all the debt. Like Japan, owns pretty much the whole curve
I don't know if you noticed the treasury auctions are failing at the current yields.
The reason is they bond market expects inflation ,and interest rates have to be over inflation to be a positive investment.
So the fed is the buyer of last resort.They are the only ones left to lend the government money.
Which is made off the stroke of a keyboard.Every $ they make devalues all others.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #588,915
  • Apr 10, 2021 5:01am Apr 10, 2021 5:01am
Inserted Video
Like me, cuts losses quickly. But has more patience and lets his winn
  • #588,916
  • Apr 10, 2021 7:30am Apr 10, 2021 7:30am
P&F Chart show well how BEARISH SHORT TERM MOOD of SMART MONEY based on COT Data of last weeks is working. MM has negative direction. At moment we are into DOWNTREND CHANNEL (YEllow)

Bear columns (O) have bigger volume then Bull ones (X)

For next week very important will be .3665, a breakout will increase BEARs Strength.
This week SMART MONEY have increased SHORT positions & closed LONG Ones so probably next week we will see new LOWs.
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  • #588,917
  • Edited 8:18am Apr 10, 2021 7:58am | Edited 8:18am
LONG TERM CHART is VERY INTERESTING:

* 23/03 breakout UPTREND CHANNEL + BREAKOUT DOUBLE BOTTOM, so SHORT SIGNAL with P&F TP .3300. Week when COT shows how MOOD is CHANGING

Now quotes are into DOWNTREND CHANNEL and DOUBLE BOTTOM is exactly 32% FIbonacci retrace .3650. THis is the LAST DEFENCE LINE for BULLs

If it will be broken next REVERSAL ZONE Orange will be .345/.3300 according to P&F TP

A return over .3950 will show all Bull Strenght & retest maximum

I can be wrong but it's very evocative
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  • #588,918
  • Apr 10, 2021 9:56am Apr 10, 2021 9:56am
Hi. I am new here though. Been following on conversations here for sometime, though only as a guest.
Honestly it's been nice hearing different tips here and there. Looking forward to interactions with y'all.
  • #588,919
  • Edited 10:19am Apr 10, 2021 10:01am | Edited 10:19am
Quoting trumps
The Fed have TALKED about NOT raising rates for the foreseeable future
Stick to your view mate. It’s the right one. The ones who expect FED to raise rates anytime soon will get burned nastily. Look back at the FED’s model and the way they present their intentions to the public anyone can see only transparency and nothing but transparency and efforts to make themselves understood so that the market get as less as possible surprised.

Not only FED does not suggest rate raise. FED says explicitly that they will not raise rates anytime soon. The economy is on a recovery path but far from getting overheated.
I will change my view as soon as FED gives the slightest hint about rate raise.
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #588,920
  • Apr 10, 2021 10:48am Apr 10, 2021 10:48am
still up trend ! But at a crossroads
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good luck
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