Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Hey, yea I get what you're saying. I think it's accepted that we're just presenting our views and we're not presenting it as gospel fact, however much confidence some of us put behind our calls. But, I also truly don't believe the 'random walk' 'efficient markets hyptothesis' idea that prices are inherently completely unpredictable and any attempt at forecasting the market is pointless, none of us would be here if that were true.

When I did CFA they would talk about the 'mosaic theory' of investment in the ethics section. The idea was you were allowed to use a variety of public, non-public and non-material information to make an investment decision. Basically the idea is that it is acceptable to use a variety of varied sources to come to a decision even if one of those was a group of analysts discussing a buy/sell recommendation in the pub-as long as that wasn't your only source (although if it was a group of directors discussing strategy, this would fall into insider trading and hence unacceptable). Kinda similar here, we're all building our own mosaic and using our own internal bullshit detectors built through our years of living and dealing with people to figure out what's useful and what's not.

I think I can say with confidence that you could never build a successful trading strategy off of copying someone else's calls. You have to have confidence in yourself to hold trades into drawdown knowing that you're going to be right more often than not. but I personally find it pretty useful to put a chart out and write down my thoughts just to clarify it in my own head. If people want to tear it apart and say it's nonsense then so be it, in fact I'd prefer that.

With all that said I do think some degree of directional bias is important to be consistently profitable. Otherwise you're just putting a trade out into the wild with no idea where it will land. So you'll never have your strike rate & RR where you need it to be, to be consistent (does that make any sense??). So yea, we can take it as read that none of us truly know, but it's also fair to say we can have a pretty good idea based on the clues the market, COT, fundamentals are telling us.

For me, I think it's more likely than not we'll make a push up to one of the horizontal levels I highlighted where I'll be looking for a good price for a longer ride down.. just imo, and just on the info I have

Reading threads like this is a real double edged sword though. I've definitely found myself shaken from my own view and wish I'd just held firm, but on the other hand I've for sure people consistently point out things that I never would have seen and turned out to be correct. So yeah.. just have to tread carefully, I guess.

GBPUSD Monthly Options - Daily data

Slowly Ratio Call/Put is going to 1, after Friday Bull Run i expected Ratio over 1, not yet. Put are still bigger than Call so short term scenario is still BEARISH

On Mar 24 there was a big PUT Options closing

After JPY (the most sold), GBP was the second currency with high increase SHORT positions, about +15%
In 4 weeks Net position is passed by +40K to +20k, -50% (GU passed 1.42 to 1.37)

Bullish Long term scenario is still present but weaking so fast & Big Dark Clouds are coming.....My idea was that actual bear trend was simply a retrace (until now SHORT positions were flat), but now i have some doubts. The first signal for restart for a bull run will be Ratio Call/Put over 1.

Green pips to all

4H

Fibonacci View + Retest previous Strong Demand 4H

Yea thats overcomplicating to the point you don't know what's what ,which is all I said in the first place.
I look at these threads all day long with reinventing the wheel posts ,

1.37700 - Buy
1.38300 - Sell
It depends on where the price will be first.

I'm seeing a failed attempt by the bears to break south of the range so I expect the bulls to attempt a break north of it.

I would be looking for long signals on the lower time frames to catch the ride.

Is it your red nose next to nickname?
Nothing complicated, if it satisfies the definition => that is what it is.
Denying logic is a trouble, yes. But not mine, so I don't care.

Ignored.

Ok Andrew

This is another nice indicator! I was looking to sell around 1.3835 due to the supply zone, fib is another confirmation. Good find

Looks that way ATM

An extended ‘M’ pattern is being formed on the daily time frame. Meanwhile, price action is in a northward, bullish mode after the bullish continuation print of Friday. Price action is presently located at the mid-line of the emerging ‘M’ pattern around 1.37860. Any bearish turnaround may lead to the consummation of a potential extended ‘M’ pattern at the 1.35640 area (green).

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

H1 bullish divergence with a confirmation:

mind the open ,

GU will retest 1.3750. I have a doubt whether this line could hold? What finally deciding direction is the fundamental, not technical analysis!
At the moment, people are worried about the third wave of covid-19 and growing tension with China. This pushes dxy up. GU could drop to 1.3710-20!.
My sell position is still running.
This is my guess. I could be wrong!

1.37650 area is the bullish pullback if the price want to climb up this week
so we can see the bull is real enter or not xD

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