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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #586,561
  • Edited Mar 28, 2021 1:19am Mar 27, 2021 3:20pm | Edited Mar 28, 2021 1:19am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Median range for March is 540pips ...
Feb > 600pips and Feb > March — 5:2 = 5/7 = 0.71 — probability that March < February in range {{Bull Feb, Bear March}, 8 occurrences} : 5{image} Considering that, 5 months of consecutive buying and some other factors - I suppose that March will be bearish. Possible range: let's say 25%(135) from median up, 75%(405) down High: 1.4072 Low: 1.3532 OR if price gonna retest the high High: 1.4242 Low: 1.37{image}
Unlikely that something will change in 3 days. 347 pips is < 15 percentile of March ranges.
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Bullish April if March closes above 1.3811, imo. April usually are more volatile.
(Dark cloud on monthly if close under 1.3811, lower is better)
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Air force
  • #586,562
  • Mar 27, 2021 3:35pm Mar 27, 2021 3:35pm
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Air force
  • #586,563
  • Mar 27, 2021 4:02pm Mar 27, 2021 4:02pm
Quoting helioss
{quote} Numbers are so clear & table too: Long positions are decreasing Short positions are increasing % oi long Is decreasing % oi short Is increasing Result: actual long trend Is weaking.....so on short term smart Money mood Is bearish
Simply confusing and not true. You say that this isn’t a long signal. It is certainly not, but it isn’t a short signal either and it cannot be a short signal with Smart Money having long positions as twice as big as short positions. In addition to that decreasing long positions and increasing short positions while longs are still 2 x shorts does not create a bearish mood, it just decreases the intensity of the bull run. To me it looks like you are the one creating a bearish mood.

Looking at D1 the price just tested downwards the 100 EMA and got rejected. Now it’s on the way up.
Looking at H4 the price returned back in the bull channel between 200 EMA and 400 EMA.
Looking at the W1 it’s confusing but the history of W1 gives a bearish bias.

All this shows how subjective all views actually are. It all depends on how the individual sees it and it doesn’t have to mean anything for certain whatsoever.

Trade your own plan.
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #586,564
  • Mar 27, 2021 4:23pm Mar 27, 2021 4:23pm
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Simply confusing and not true. You say that this isn’t a long signal. It is certainly not, but it isn’t a short signal either and it cannot be a short signal with Smart Money having long positions as twice as big as short positions. In addition to that decreasing long positions and increasing short positions while longs are still 2 x shorts does not create a bearish mood, it just decreases the intensity of the bull run. To me it looks like you are the one creating a bearish mood. Looking at D1 the price just tested downwards the 100 EMA...
Trader Ideas are subjective, but fortunately numbers are not subjective:

SO as u can read on table: TREND is LONG STRENGTH is WEAKING (= bearish short term mood)

My best regards & green pips
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  • #586,565
  • Mar 27, 2021 4:45pm Mar 27, 2021 4:45pm
Quoting helioss
{quote} Trader Ideas are subjective, but fortunately numbers are not subjective: SO as u can read on table: TREND is LONG STRENGTH is WEAKING (= bearish short term mood) My best regards & green pips
There is no short term bearish mood mate. The numbers are not subjective, but they do not show any bearish mood being created. You are the one creating it. You are simply misreading the numbers.
In the end of the day I am glad I have my charts and I hope people have their own trading plans and they follow their own charts and their own understandings of it as making wrong trades because of following someone else’s failed view is totally unnecessary.

Generally I think sharing strategy ideas and approaches creates way more useful discussions than sharing trading plans and price predictions. No one will learn anything by following a wrong trading advice. On the other hand trying out new strategies on and approaches on a back testing environment may give you the knowledge and the inspiration you need to eventually become a good trader.
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #586,566
  • Mar 27, 2021 4:52pm Mar 27, 2021 4:52pm
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} There is no short term bearish mood mate. The numbers are not subjective, but they do not show any bearish mood being created. You are the one creating it. You are simply misreading the numbers. In the end of the day I am glad I have my charts and I hope people have their own trading plans and they follow their own charts and their own understandings of it as making wrong trades because of following someone else’s failed view is totally unnecessary. Generally I think sharing strategy ideas and approaches creates way more useful discussions...
I'm sorry but probably you don't know COT data and u are not able to read it.....fortunately you have your chart & MM

Anyway market will show the right way.....it's nice to see how data COTs hurts some kind of "professional" traders
  • #586,567
  • Mar 27, 2021 5:01pm Mar 27, 2021 5:01pm
Quoting helioss
{quote} I'm sorry but probably you don't know COT data and u are not able to read it.....fortunately you have your chart & MM Anyway market will show the right way.....it's nice to see how data COTs hurts some kind of "professional" traders
Your probable assumptions are totally wrong and you are getting increasingly offensive just because someone does not agree with you. My friend it is not nice to see anyone getting hurt and in particular not nice to see inexperienced traders getting hurt by taking wrong trading advices. Think about that next time you insist that your view is right.
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #586,568
  • Mar 27, 2021 5:07pm Mar 27, 2021 5:07pm
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Your probable assumptions are totally wrong and you are getting increasingly offensive just because someone does not agree with you. My friend it is not nice to see anyone getting hurt and in particular not nice to see inexperienced traders getting hurt by taking wrong trading advices. Think about that next time you insist that your view is right.
Study COT data dear " professional" trader, numbers are numbers not assumptions. By the way as i told market will show us....

Anyway if u don't like my posts, u can ignore me

My best regards MONEY MACHINE
  • #586,569
  • Mar 27, 2021 5:24pm Mar 27, 2021 5:24pm
Quoting Bones
4.6 Trillion new money in 12 months ,vaccine being administered , cheques in post-ink still wet, but wait....there could be more {image} {image}
The $ is bullish ,therefore the weekly is hang man ,not perfect
but better than any hammer idea
so we must look to that Doji on Cable Quarterly close.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #586,570
  • Mar 27, 2021 5:32pm Mar 27, 2021 5:32pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Unlikely that something will change in 3 days. 347 pips is < 15 percentile of March ranges.{image} Bullish April if March closes above 1.3811. April usually are more volatile. (Dark cloud on monthly if close under 1.3811, lower is better){image}
so...
this is what dark cloud looks like and its a live set up right now
Quoting Bones
so now we have perfect dark cloud as you want to see it, it can only change to another bear on that tf , {image} {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #586,571
  • Mar 27, 2021 5:34pm Mar 27, 2021 5:34pm
Quoting helioss
{quote} Study COT data dear " professional" trader, numbers are numbers not assumptions. By the way as i told market will show us.... Anyway if u don't like my posts, u can ignore me My best regards MONEY MACHINE
No one should have a problem with me being a money machine. But many can get serious problem with you insisting that you are the knowledgeable guy here and your view is the right view. I hope people feel the smell of arrogance in the way you defend your own ego by trying to make fun of others while having no idea what you’re talking about.
Yes I am a money machine and that’s not supposed to create any problems for you does it! And I wish you could become that, but that’s not supposed to be your point of discussion - right?! The point of your discussion is to make yourself a winner and create the impression of a knowledgeable guy which after all you may be for all I know and care. However my point is completely different to yours and you’ve completely missed it which is why I have no intentions to continue talking to a person who is listening only to himself.
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #586,572
  • Mar 27, 2021 5:43pm Mar 27, 2021 5:43pm
Quoting W0lfram
{image}
this is copper chart you pointed to last time we spoke -the perfect shooting star
then
an example of what dark cloud is and what happens next on copper after Dark Cloud
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #586,573
  • Mar 27, 2021 5:52pm Mar 27, 2021 5:52pm
So we have to be careful ,this is not dark cloud and it matters again...
But candle 1 does have a long wick in a critical location.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #586,574
  • Mar 27, 2021 5:55pm Mar 27, 2021 5:55pm
it's a sharp rejection for the best Dark Cloud ,
this is why the next candle everyone is short off bat
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #586,575
  • Edited Mar 28, 2021 11:55am Mar 27, 2021 6:06pm | Edited Mar 28, 2021 11:55am
I continue- The US monetary theme is in la la land
If I lived there I would be worried for my children ..as if Corbyn had been elected worried.
I fully expect that amount of stimulus to work short term ,but there is a huge problem going forward.
In the US -Tax has to rise or spending decrease by a lot or we defiantly go into 'no way back street'.I don't think many know this given the messaging from the top.
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The average American has made more money in the last year than since 1930 and I still read about the next 3 Trillion stimulus on infrastructure plans ...
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Also UK is a country that will pay its way and the UK voters will not stand for a running deficit like that, from my experience.
There will be/has been a divergence on spending ,and this is the primer to the move I'm looking at for the next Q all $ pairs as we all open up again.
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*note =1 Trillion deficit is approx a third of US income in todays money.Even with a V shape recovery you still run a massive deficit without major change.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #586,576
  • Edited 6:59pm Mar 27, 2021 6:22pm | Edited 6:59pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} this is copper chart you pointed to last time we spoke -the perfect shooting star then an example of what dark cloud is and what happens next on copper after Dark Cloud {image} {image}
On that chart I showed how dark cloud on 3.5 days forms shooting star on 1W.
Same way DC on 1W forms nice shooting star on 2W GU
Tag me when your IQ exceeds 1. Bye.
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Air force
  • #586,577
  • Edited 6:42pm Mar 27, 2021 6:28pm | Edited 6:42pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} On that chart I showed how dark cloud on 3.5 days forms shooting star on 1W. Same way DC on 1W forms nice shooting star on 2W GU Tag me when your IQ exceeds 1. Bye.{image}{image}
Yes what your saying is possible because a two week chart covers 2 weeks data.
i.e the first candle could have gone higher .
If it were dark cloud it would have reacted like I showed you in the many examples of 'Dark cloud' with very high probability
Even now after time has elapsed your fight the idea that rules don't matter.
come back in 10 years
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #586,578
  • Mar 27, 2021 6:50pm Mar 27, 2021 6:50pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} Yes what your saying is possible because a two week chart covers 2 weeks data. i.e the first candle could have gone higher . If it were dark cloud it would have reacted like I showed you in the many examples of 'Dark cloud' with very high probability Even now after time has elapsed your fight the idea that rules don't matter. come back in 10 years {image}
Rules do matter. But it made you laugh. Remember?
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No rules about wicks.

ok, come back in 10 years.
Air force
  • #586,579
  • Mar 27, 2021 6:54pm Mar 27, 2021 6:54pm
...the move up from 3670 resulting in 2 x consecutive bullish daily candles (Thurs and Fri,) has been in a pretty narrow 1hr channel...see below.

Also below on the 4hr is the chart showing the current 4hr bearish hidden divergence in the 2 x oscillators shown (line and histogram [and no, it's not macd.]) This could develop further if price continues to go up and may be valid if price stays below where it is being measured from - 3874. Could be an indication of some downside to come (the extent to which, - if it happens, none of us know, but price may lead the way for us on this.)

... I'm always interested in the w/e exchange of ideas and views after market close on Friday. For myself, my Trading Edge does not tell me based on the current state of the Weekly, Daily, and 4hr charts and the last candle closes on those, what has the greater probability of happening next, ie more upside or more downside. So, if I were to say that I 'thought' it looked like more downside, or more upside - it would be just a guess. Others' may express it as what they 'think' or what they 'feel' or indeed 'expect' - but it amounts to the same thing. The market doesn't give a feck for what we think, feel, or expect. Unless they can tell you/are prepared to (and I include myself in this,) that per their empirically proven (over a very large sample, or a very large total of samples,) Trading Edge that based on how a t/f or combination of t/f's closed per Friday's close that there is a greater probability of x or y happening next, (and preferably reveal that %,) - then their opinion is as valid as anyone's reading this, which is to say that they all carry a theoretically equal weight. Of course trading experience and the perceived quality of posters' contributions comes into it and readers of this thread will, over time, garner an appreciation of who, in their opinion is worth taking notice of, or not, (hopefully without falling into the 'confirmation bias' trap, which I see here a lot - particularly expressed via the like function lol!)

God damm us all - and all who sail in us,! (for tomorrow we'll be sober....)
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #586,580
  • Mar 28, 2021 2:08am Mar 28, 2021 2:08am
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yes yes yes
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