Cable Update (GBPUSD)

lol have a nice weekend all

closed everything (gu + gj) with profit
closed partially gold and entered again buy ( but ready to close if 1731.70 will not be broken)

Love it

Waiting new COT data...i wish a great weekend for ALL

Stay safe

Could do.
But, there are challenges ahead

dx will continue to drop next week

aussi will save his break for next week

COT DATA UPDATE

Sentiment Smart Money

Looking for Sell next week

Expecting a good sell and hold scenario next week after the expected bounce from 1.37, obviously depending on PA. Once 1.37 breaks this opens up 1.32

Note these predictions are 'just for fun' it's not a trading signal for a set and forget

does that mean we have a strong long signal?

At moment Smart Money continue to close long positions and start to increase short one... dark clouds on the horizon

The data that you are showing shows smart money going for long.
So why are you saying otherwise please explain.

At moment on GBP Smart Money continue to close long positions and start to increase short one... this isn't a long signal

A pretty quiet 206pip range, sub 13week awr week (87%) just closed, all told. The most significant technical event re gbpusd was the downside break of the 2week plus 4017-3778 4hr/dly range, down to 3670 weekly lo before a bounce to challenge the bottom half of that range @ a prev 4hr/(deep) dly sw lo zone =prev supp=pot sbr @ the 3812 pullback hi. So far in March with just a few trading days left of the month, price has traveled 346pips current hi-lo which is 64% of the 6mth amr.

The Wkly t/f remains in a general fractal uptrend, with the weekly candle close being like a bearish-bodied hammer but that body is not within the body of the last candle on that t/f. There has been now (so far) a 572pip pullback from the last trend hi on this t/f, the HH @ 4242.

The Dly candle close on Friday was a bullish follow through on the previous day's (Thursday's bullish piercing pattern candle,) and makes for a fractal L on that t/f, after a HL, LH, then the L @ 3670 which was a breach of the previous ranging pattern mentioned above. This t/f is either @ the start of a new general fractal downtrend or still in a now 'damaged' general fractal uptrend. Friday was another sub 30day adr pip range @ 79% The underside of the breached former ascending t/line joining 2854 with 3188 just about @ the 3812 current pullback hi, off the 3670 lo.

The 4Hr t/f is in a general fractal downtrend although the 3812 current pullback hi is a fractal H on this t/f. The last candle close (on a gmt+3 broker feed) was effectively a doji. Bearish hidden div is still present on this 4hr t/f and may hold good so long as price remains below 3874.

What next?
No idea, and I'm in good company in this. Probably 2 likely scenarios, a. That price will continue south after the pullback to the previous range as referenced above, or b. It will continue north, (ie it will go down or up [or of course sideways] lol!) - such is the futility of prediction! As always I will be guided by price.

Short week next week for Uk traders with the Good Friday Bank Hol on Friday, although I am sure a few of us die-hard retailers won't want to miss U.s NFP!?

Wkly, then Dly, then 4hr below. (Wkly Floor pivots shown on 4Hr chart are from the week's just closed.)

Will be interesting next week.. personally I feel the bull run will need to sustain a rise above 138 to continue. The U turn about social distance from June not giving market confidence either. The UK factors are messy in more ways than one which won’t help either.

I also agree but if the price breaks above 1.38 over the arrow then next target is 1.387 but that doesnt seem like it because it will go over the ADR range which is not likely to happen.
also in the terminal indicator and moving averages point going down. So i am in favour of sell.
Please correct me if i am wrong. This is just for learning purpose. I want to express my views.
Would love it if some guides me.

Mate, both your images show a bull trend for GBP yet you say this isn’t a long signal.
The first image shows bull run for GBP. The second image shows longs still being almost twice as the shorts which is not exactly a short signal.
How on earth is this a short signal for you. I maybe dumb and I apologize for that, but you need to explain why in your opinion this is a short signal. Closing longs does not necessarily mean a short signal if the longs are still twice as much as the shorts. It might just be a profit taking and reinstating the next week.

Numbers are so clear & table too:

Long positions are decreasing
Short positions are increasing
% oi long Is decreasing
% oi short Is increasing

Result: actual long trend Is weaking.....so on short term smart Money mood Is bearish