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Cable Update (GBP/USD) without Idiots 23 replies

Is it just me or is cable acting random? 44 replies

Why is GBPUSD called cable? 66 replies

Cable (GBPUSD) vs Euro (EURUSD) 26 replies

cable short for gbpusd? 6 replies

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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

....Quite a lot of U.s bond auctions (maturities) this upcoming week...5yr on Weds, and 7yr on Thurs, and we all know what happened last time 7 year paper was offered? Be good to keep an eye on it. I can't see Powell's comments this week altering much from the policy of '...we're not too bothered about inflation currently and we'll keep rates near zero through 2023,' (to paraphrase.) How will the longer-dated maturities demand be? Potential for spillover / cross-flow volatility in gbpusd related instruments, (and others.)

As for near-term price discovery from the Open through the Asian session and into the London session, well, like I said in my earlier post on Friday evening, who knows,? looks more bearish than bullish as of Friday close, but anything can happen. 1hr as of Friday close is below. (dly pivots shown are still Friday's - don't reset till broker opens again.)

Will the 15min bearish hidden div @ the 3886 pullback hi play out for a with downtrend (on this t/f) follow thru to a new lo below Friday's (and downtrend's last) 3830 lo?
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Intraday (mainly) swing scalper (+,) via a Supp/Res & PA based edge.
No one is buying Government debt at the current rate for sure ,unless they have too.
Here's what I notice with the account their emptying ,
it went to about 1.9 last year then it sat there until the latest round @ 1.9 ?conclusion is the 1.9 is not random but a pre planned sum & they don't have to raise it .
The only people buying the debt is the US tax payer via the FED
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Reuters.com
MARCH 4, 2021

"The 10-year cost to borrow repo rate, which is typically positive, has been negative since Monday and hit as low as -4.25% on Thursday, analysts said. It was last at -0.50% as the Federal stepped in on Thursday to sell U.S. 10-year Treasuries in the market. The last time U.S. 10-year repo rates went negative before this week was June 2020 and before that in March of the same year, Skyrm said"
“This has driven the cost of borrowing on-the-run Treasuries sharply lower and past the fail rate which is the penalty rate market participants pay if they cannot deliver a security,” he added.
That so-called fail rate is -3%, Goldberg said."

Inserted Video
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
What’s interesting is the weekend GU on IG has been virtually standstill currently -1.4 on the weekend rate. Expect some kind of retrace or slight further downside until market open
Quoting bilal.cybrog
{quote} I think that after 1.38400 it might bounce back up the reason is that it is already on the lower side of the ADR. The white box is the New york session. The price is already working in that direction so it must follow upwards of 1.39 to move down again. I am a newbie kindly guide me if I am correct.{image}
Hi bilal, I don't know much about intraday play, but your reasoning sounds good
Good Vibes - In charts we trust
Pulchra All Time Return: -88.4%
Just that we are not over excited with the bearish mood, I want to highlight the 4H pin bar(Second last on Friday). The last candle is a no decision and somehow was almost with no volatility. Have a good start with the week.
My observation may be wrong but intent correct. Stay calm!
it will range between 1.38 and 1.40 this week
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Quoting Bones
$ can be seen in UJ monthly cleaner -maybe we can say 3 soldier on UJ. How this Q close is important ,as its at piercing line type location against bear, a little higher is better-just go by eye The blue tl is not real as I've drawn it because its 2 point , The $ is very oversold also the lower it goes, it is inflationary all on its own without injecting money right into the centre of an economy . {image} {image} {image}
Why only 2 point?
Q candles highlighted on monthly chart.

I think part of the Fed plan is to inflate away the debt to make it more manageable.
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Good Vibes - In charts we trust
Pulchra All Time Return: -88.4%
Quoting trumps
{quote} Why only 2 point? Q candles highlighted on monthly chart. I think part of the Fed plan is to inflate away the debt to make it more manageable. {image}
Wouldn’t that send the USD down?
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} Wouldn’t that send the USD down?
Yes
Good Vibes - In charts we trust
Pulchra All Time Return: -88.4%
Quoting trumps
{quote} Why only 2 point? Q candles highlighted on monthly chart. I think part of the Fed plan is to inflate away the debt to make it more manageable. {image}
its 2 point on the Quarterly
I don't think thats a line, but it did react on the monthly.Its a trick to think test.
see the Q close
piercing line is high probability candles on a high probability TF {or dark cloud off major EU}
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
pre market mini gap down
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Quoting Moty
it will range between 1.38 and 1.40 this week {image} {image} {image}
I see 1.3910 - 1.3700 this week.
Quoting trumps
{quote} I think part of the Fed plan is to inflate away the debt to make it more manageable. {image}
I agree thats a good plan ,but I'm struggling with how they can afford it.
Can you see how they can let it run sustainably hot + keep interest rates down + avoid the debt going through the roof ?
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Georginson
{quote} I see 1.3910 - 1.3700 this week.
Thinking very similar

Looking to get short if price can rise up to the circled area

Curious if Bailey will start talking about yield curve control now with 10y Gilt yields approaching 100bps, this could cause a huge drop on GU. Both pound and dollar have been strengthening recently causing this ranging

Big gap down on market open, down at 1.3837 currently
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Quoting mysterio
{quote} Thinking very similar Looking to get short if price can rise up to the circled area {image} {image}
Seeing what y'all are seeing too. Well I expect it to be a dramatic week
You can't backtest emotions.
Quoting Bones
{quote} I agree thats a good plan ,but I'm struggling with how they can afford it. Can you see how they can let it run sustainably hot + keep interest rates down + avoid the debt going through the roof ?
Not really, but it seems to be their strategy nonetheless.
They are in a corner.
Fed has indicated they are happy to let inflation run up, I suspect because they have to.
Good Vibes - In charts we trust
Pulchra All Time Return: -88.4%
Quoting trumps
{quote} Not really, but it seems to be their strategy nonetheless. They are in a corner. Fed has indicated they are happy to let inflation run up, I suspect because they have to.
I agree with you Trumps ,this is why you will definitely get inflation .The only way you don't is if our cousins wake up with a Japanese attitude.
This is unlikely because politicians are busying saying this will be the greatest recovery on record.
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Below 1.3825 the slide is to 1.3770, below there is around 1.3710 Resistance 1.3880 to 1.3910 today
GU needs a big push to go up anytime soon as chart shows..favoring down to grab some power to possibly go up again.
My technical analysis leading trades depend on Daily/Weekly/Monthly Chart
  • Post #585,239
  • Quote
  • Edited Mar 22, 2021 3:21am Mar 21, 2021 5:57pm | Edited Mar 22, 2021 3:21am
Here's my take on the GBPUSD, from the technical perspective of a swing trader. After the shooting star printed on February 24, 2021, the technical impulse on the GBPUSD daily time frame is in favour of bears. There was a retracement to the 50 Fib area on March 11, and a retest of the area was attempted last week Wednesday, but this was met with a bearish rejection on Thursday and a bearish continuation occurred on Friday. Further bearish drive will likely complete an ‘M’ pattern around 1.37680 (sandybrown) and may later complete an extended ‘M’ pattern at the 1.36240 major horizontal support area (green).

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
good start will good end of week
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