Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Location location location ,
how this close's matters....
It's over the tl as is ,but note its two point,
theres no way to know any location for sure.

Actual condition medium term is still side ,unless it can break into the other zone.
(top of box or if we can close higher Ill believe bottom of next space)

yesterday was bear correction.ok.
now I have no expectation of the tide, it can go anywhere.
D1.

Inflation is coming to the US ,I do believe there's no way there can't be a problem ,but the FED think they can control it.
Maybe the US would need to fully open up.
Question is does anyone believe the Fed can control it.

Even EU is thinking about inflation ,they're upping the bond purchases to hold rates down.
But as pointed out in previous posts no one is going US far ,
these 3 US packages have a high % going to the broad money system

Theres that money expansion on a chart so far ,without this recent 1.9
The only way to remove it is pay down debt or tax it over time ,other than that it will rattle around the real economy.
You have to really spend it many times to get it out. Velocity could rise sharply in coming months.


The government do not have limitless power to control this puppy ,because they need to borrow more to hold interest rates down right now.Theres defiantly a limit to borrowing V income even with a government and that ratio is already very high.
I suspect they say we will let it run inflation hot because they have to .

your not looking at a 2008 situ ,all stimulus are not equal
this is a very different dilemma approaching ,this money is not mostly for the banks.

Excellent posts Bones, thanks.

This week just closed took 4 days for price to get up to 4005 only to see 61.8% of that gain evaporate on Friday before a recovery to 50% of that 4005-3863 fall as further supply came in there. Another sub 13 week awr week @ 81% of that metric and the weekly candle closed as a bullish engulfing candle (just.) The Weekly t/f remains in a general fractal uptrend.

Friday saw a > 30day adr pip range @ 142% of that figure and the Friday candle closed as bearish-bodied hammer-esq candle? or maybe an inverted hammer - I get confused with all these descriptions lol. The Daily t/f closes the week either in a weakened general fractal uptrend, ie a HL, LH, L, and a potential 2nd LH @ Friday's 4005 hi depending on Monday's daily candle -or- the start of a new fractal downtrend, although there is no LL yet which would come under the 3778 handle. Take your pick, although the laggiest of lagging indicators - namely the ma's remain crossed up re 10/20/50 ema's on this daily t/f.

The 4hr remains in something of a messy general fractal downtrend with the last candle close being a bearish evening star type candle (?)

I have been surprised not to see more of a $ positive reaction (so far?) to the U.s stimulus plan coming into law, but it's always a case of ' trade what you see not what you think. ' The usual raft of economic data due this coming week, perhaps the highlight being U.s Retail Sales. The U.s Fed's Fomc and Uk's Boe's mpc stuff too this coming Weds and Thurs respectively. These may shed more light on the ever-developing fundie situation, particularly given inflation expectations and tools to deal with any rise. The effects on the bond markets (govt debt and the cost of servicing it,) will be watched as a first priority. Uk press reporting today that Uk exports to the Eu are 40% down this year so far following the Brexit trade agreement (so-called,) with the Eu, late last year.

Weekly then Daily below.

great chart illustrating the main problem of the years to come: both monetary and fiscal stimulus are where they never have been before:
unlike 2008 policies, this actual actions at the same time taken both from cbs and govs will increase pressure on inflation rates.

in addition, this stimulus as you said is not only addressed to the banks unlike 2008, parts of what is happening in the us (and even here in germany) is helicopter money, the most dangerous weapon because it is double-edged to say it in a moderate way. broad money supply will jump to never ever seen before levels.

there´s a chance that ecb will look again on it´s seconds pillar which was deigned to address this problem, but i have doubts on this since lagarde is a keynesianist and even not a banker but a politician. having said this, cb´s will buy every bond govs will issue. so prepare for the crack-up boom:

forget about forex, fixed income and bonds. buy gold, commodities, real estate and first of all stocks. we will see an absolute beggar-thy-neighbour policy with a race to the bottom regulation for private banks, the biggest holders and buyers of govs bonds. and to those who think btc or any other crypto is the solution: forget it and remember that gold has been illegal for private investors decades ago. history does not not repeat but rhymes.

last man standing? guess what...

Both - you can never be to careful.

If its any good I'll have a couple of shots too.

up up up. all the way to 1.40000

They have already said this, happy to let inflation run above 2%.
Of course, the bottom end will continue to feel it

yea ,
I think they have to, looking at the 10 year note I think it has space to go between 2-3%.It's better to let the free market use resource to go higher than battle at 2

The last resort is actually send every person money including children with a high threshold.
Edit-the black words on that chart come from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/q...ive-easing.asp

wow, just wow...

all i can say: you are GRATE putting the main problem in just one picture. i know you are neither an economist nor someone from university, but this is just a perfect description of the problem! do you know the crack-up boom theory? and even if not: what would be your solution for a private investor to that problem you have described?

Using the U.s as an example, the total of Govt, State, Corporate, and Personal debt totals nearly $60trillion. The U.s GDP in 2020 was nearly $21trillion, so that's a total debt to gdp ratio of nearly 3:1.

This level of debt is becoming all-consuming (and will continue to be so @ an exponentially growing rate if it keeps getting added to ~ even at a growing level of gdp as debt spending almost always outsrips gdp growth. ) As an example of the exponentiality of any debt curve (when you keep adding to it) taking just U.s Govt debt, when Clinton left office in Jan 2001 Govt debt was $4trillion, 20 years later it is $28trillion.

It is actually probably an inevitable consequence of the very thing that led to it's creation - the abandonment of the gold standard and the acceptance of a new orthodoxy - fractional reserve lending and leverage in a fiat system of money. This level of debt threatens the very existence of western civilization as we have known it and understand it. We are 'through the looking glass' and 'down the rabbit hole.' Black is white, and white is black and we are heading god only knows where? I say god only knows because the policymakers are either very smart or do not care about the lessons of history. They have either created/discovered a new economic paradigm the details of which that they have not shared with us yet, -or- it is fantasy economics, and we really are headed the way that most think is inevitable. I think the truth is that policymakers have no idea what to do about it so they just carry on 'kicking the can down the road' and hope the real problems (that will likely dwarf the ones we are seeing now,) happen on 'someone else's watch.' Even if they have one, the chances of getting a truly worldwide international agreement to implement it are slim, but whatever it may turn out to be, it may, in the end, it's acceptance may become the least worst of available choices, come the day of reckoning.

We live in a world where the thrifty and prudent are penalized and the feckless and profligate are rewarded - it is economics turned on it's head. It has the feeling of the last days of Soddom and Gomorrah, and, using a final metaphor - although I don't think we are anywhere near the reckoning day(s) - there will be one. When that happens we will be scrambling to board the 'last helicopter outa Saigon.' This may be later, or sooner - precipitated by another as yet unseen/unknown seismic shock to the world economy. No one knows.

What has this got to do with next week's gbpusd price discovery? well some is the answer - and these themes touch all asset classes to one degree or another even right now, and the influence they have on them will grow as time goes on. All we as citizens/consumers can do is try to position ourselves accordingly, remain informed, vigilant, and flexible. (A whole other story/thread lol!)

Thank you!

We should wait brakeout

gbpaud.
after the d1 candle closed on friday, i think the price needs a bull adjustment.
d1.
gbpusd.
the correction was made on Friday. so now the price does not require adjustment.
so you can go in any direction next week.
d1.

gbpcad.
a correction was made week this Thursday.
now the price does not require adjustment.
the price can go in any direction.
d1.