Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Possible drop to 1.3779 to close?

Hi gettoefl
This is a very interesting calculation and I guess your approach is trading time rather price. Would you mind explaining what you mean by ‘’take the 48 divided by 5 times 2 equal nineteen point two hours from the start of the day, which is twelve minutes past seven pm london time’’
Thank you

WHY?

I still waiting for 1.3885.., or close to it

I put my TP from 1.3841 till 1.3877

let's see

Looked at the chart and slashing and increasing the rate had the same effect on the stock market it went up! When the economy is booming the governments take the credit. When it's not booming it always something else.

because it's the bottom of the hammer from nfp

OUT +23 pips

Hello everybody,

Please does anybody know why the non-farm payroll news did not move the GBPUSD market that much?

I thought the price would go down because the news favors USD.

Maybe some other factors are to be considered.

Maybe some other fundamentals are at play here.

Please can anyone explain the current movement on the GBPUSD chart?

Thank you.

NFP report ( either good or bad) has been priced in yesterday when Powel caused an earthquake.

the white lines are the internal structure of the first minor wave down
If you are using EW theory, then that is not possible because a first wave is impulsive, either a 1 or an A. And impulse waves subdivide into 5 waves.

Of course, you could be using some other system.

babayaga, your expectation is reasonable and your analysis is sound...the rest is up to the maket...

thank you,

nice to hear it from you

Just a theory but it comes down to the government fixed income market. People have been selling US treasuries for a while, essentially betting on higher inflation in the States. This is why the dollar has been bullish. US 10 y treasury yields reached a psych level 1.6 so rates traders took profits here I think. Especially on a Friday before the weekend. Draw a line at the big round numbers on that chart (1.4, 1.5, 1.6 etc) and you'll see what I mean. It's never as simple as good news=good for currency. There is a complex interplay between the different markets and their participants. Think about why people are buying or selling the dollar, is it because they're excited about people getting jobs in the states? No, it's because it affects the government's ability to repay its deficit and hence the price of their debt instruments.

You can look at it in a variety of ways. Another way to look at it is the dollar is 'due' a correction- it can't just go one way all the time without sellers becoming interested. The hard part is figuring out when, where, how etc

By the way this old thread is invaluable, one of the ones I stumbled across when I first started.. really deserves a read 'psych levels, trend lines and pivots'

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...es-resurrected

I use a loose version of elliott wave which means i am not too concerned with wave counts in minute detail however if you wish take a look at the hourly as that shows the 5 wave structure making it wave 1 and we are now moving into wave 2, i guess from the thirty minute tf i was seeing more of the internal structure of wave 1, if you wish to look into the structure by the book drop down to the 5 minute and you can see all 5 waves in minute detail.

Thank you for your response.

Thank you for your response.

It looks to me like USD has a little more UPside
GBPUSD has a little more DOWNside

Before the next big move begins.

perhaps it's time to catch ' Coming to America 2'

Market has just closed. Much smaller pip range than last week @ 238pips = 92% of 13week awr. Friday was a > 30day adr day at 128pips, (127% of 30day adr.)

The Wkly candle closes with a bearish body and a longer upper wick than lower wick, a downside follow thru from last week's bearish hammer candle after the 4242 rejection. The t/f remains in a general fractal uptrend with the last HL @ 3566. The 4242-3758 pullback in the wkly uptrend is the largest since the 3482-2675 pullback that started in late August last year-2020.

The Dly candle closes as a bearish-bodied hammer-type candle although the body is not fully inside the length of the previous candle. Nevertheless, it suggests a strong rejection of the 3778 lo. The week saw a downside break of the steepest Dly ascending t/line, and the t/f fractal prints since and including the 4242 hi are HH, HL, LH, and what will be a L when it forms fractally. This said the t/f is still in a general fractal uptrend although the LH and L print (when it happens) could be a warning sign that the uptrend is under threat on this t/f.

The 4hr is in a general fractal downtrend and the last candle close was bearish (gmt+2 candle,) - a bearish-bodied dragonfly pinbar with a long upper wick.

The week was really all about the fixed income markets and the yield on U.s T-notes re inflation expectations, with Fed Chairman J.Powell's comments to the WSJ on Thursday ending the 4hr consolidation that had been taking place all week till then. This theme could well spill over into other countries as it is already doing into Canada and next week we will see the ECB meeting on Thursday which might tell us more. Other highlights include Uk's Boe Gvnr Bailey speaking on Monday, several Bond auctions throughout the week, With the U.s CPI on Weds and PPI on Fri. Also on Fri the Uk's m/m Gdp. These U.s inflation numbers will be crucial to all markets but particularly the fixed income market re Bond yields. Biden's $1.9trn stimulus bill could also well pass the senate into law early next week.

What next?
Well, as I said in last week's summary it really doesn't matter for tech traders unless you believe in your own powers of prediction and/or think that prediction is even necessary to make money trading, but for the sake of fun let's speculate anyway. Or, maybe I should more correctly say, let's not as I don't think the technical picture is as clear as it was @ last week's market close. I think the technicals on Wkly/Dly/4hr probably suggest more downside is the most probable outcome. (For clarity I am not 100% sure it is more probable than not as I don't have large sample empirical evidence to suggest that such a run of candles on a Weekly, Daily, and 4hr chart on this pairing to indicate that has been the case in the past, but anecdotally/observationally it ' feels/looks ' like that is the greater probability.) I think this is supported by the 4hr/1hr being in downtrends now and the Daily printing a LH and what will be a L. Now let's look @ how the fundamental environment may support that;

Fundamentally we could see more $ strength particularly if Biden's stimulus bill passes and the Cpi/Ppi numbers come out greater than expectations, this will likely send the bond markets parabolic. Some are also expecting the next U.s GDP # to be very strong, maybe even 10% ? Re Gdp numbers, Uk's on Friday could cause a tickle also.

Wkly and Dly are below.