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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #581,001
  • Feb 27, 2021 4:34am Feb 27, 2021 4:34am
Everyone on this thread are now Bears! Why?
All Higher time higher are all north.
A few days of correction and its perfect reasonable that it could go north again.
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Don't trade what you think. Just what you see!!!
  • #581,002
  • Feb 27, 2021 4:41am Feb 27, 2021 4:41am
Quoting Theoak
Everyone on this thread are now Bears! Why? All Higher time higher are all north. A few days of correction and its perfect reasonable that it could go north again. {image} {image} {image}
Looking at the weekly candle, it's reasonable to think there is tradeable movement south to come.
Look historically at such weekly candles to see what comes after.
Especially from stretched positions and previous resistance.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #581,003
  • Feb 27, 2021 5:00am Feb 27, 2021 5:00am
Quoting TrTT
{quote} HAHA Nice Indicator Helios Where did you get this. Fancy aah. Haha is it ex4 able Hahahahaaa or you would like to show it maybe. Like to have a lo0ok Ok See You
It isn't indicator but a simple Excel spreadsheet
  • #581,004
  • Feb 27, 2021 5:03am Feb 27, 2021 5:03am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Yep, this is it. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full...9.2020.1768648 [...]
Distance from the High to Close is their sl/tp. So, down ~ 300 pips more (?) {image}{image}
Dark Cloud on Wkly TF.
Same rules:
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With a slight modification of last one: Current candle covers 50-90% of the prev. bullish candle.
Last candle is identified as Dark Cloud
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1 standard lot size, TP - 800pips, SL - Infinity
Single loss -130pips in 2002-2003. But the trade could have been closed earlier with a profit.
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Attached Image
Air force
  • #581,005
  • Feb 27, 2021 5:05am Feb 27, 2021 5:05am
Quoting Theoak
Everyone on this thread are now Bears! Why? All Higher time higher are all north. A few days of correction and its perfect reasonable that it could go north again. {image} {image} {image}
On my weekly I can see dark cloud pattern, but on yours chart can't. Whats your broker, if I may ask? Thanks.
Multiple Position Trader
  • #581,006
  • Feb 27, 2021 5:07am Feb 27, 2021 5:07am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Dark Cloud on Wkly TF. Same rules: {image} With a slight modification of last one: Current candle covers 50-90% of the prev. bullish candle. Last candle is identified as Dark Cloud{image} 1 standard lot size, TP - 800pips, SL - Infinity Single loss -130pips in 2002-2003. But the trade could have been closed earlier with a profit. {image}{image}
I agree. See the same.
Multiple Position Trader
  • #581,007
  • Feb 27, 2021 5:10am Feb 27, 2021 5:10am
If cloud covers up to 70%, tp - 400, sl - inf.
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Air force
  • #581,008
  • Feb 27, 2021 5:31am Feb 27, 2021 5:31am
Quoting Theoak
Everyone on this thread are now Bears! Why? All Higher time higher are all north. A few days of correction and its perfect reasonable that it could go north again. {image} {image} {image}
Speaking for myself, I like to run against the train and catch falling knives.)
Air force
  • #581,009
  • Feb 27, 2021 5:38am Feb 27, 2021 5:38am
Quoting W0lfram
If cloud covers up to 70%, tp - 400, sl - inf.{image}
what is this?
  • #581,010
  • Feb 27, 2021 5:40am Feb 27, 2021 5:40am
Quoting genadi
{quote} what is this?
Backtest of candlestick pattern
Air force
  • #581,011
  • Edited 6:38am Feb 27, 2021 6:12am | Edited 6:38am
... whether that weekly candle is a hammer or not is probably a mute point...these definitions tend to get bastardised/interpreted differently since they were first laid down by Steve Nison etc back in the day. One thing we do know though is that in and of itself it is a bearish candle in the context of an uptrend on that t/f. The Daily too is the same - ie a bearish candle in the context of an uptrend.

Now, look at 4hr/1hr which may too be instructive in near-term price discovery early next week. The last candles on those t/f's closed at their lows. Price had encountered supply on the pullback from 3887 at a prev 4hr sw lo zone = prev supp=pot sbr and sold down from there. Although probably still in a 'damaged' general fractal uptrend-ie no LL yet, the last few fractal prints on that 4hr t/f have been LH, HL, LH, L, LH, and that L was below the last 4 X HL's of the uptrend. On 1hr it is already in a general fractal downtrend.

Re those last 4hr and 1hr candles they look as though price would have carried on going south had it been any other time than the w/e close of the market? We'll never know.

4hr then 1hr below.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #581,012
  • Feb 27, 2021 7:42am Feb 27, 2021 7:42am
Quoting ChiForex
{quote} Nobody can know the exact timing of the movement but that it was coming anyways is the importance. Instead of doing it 3 days ago, GU kept clowning with a fake spike up to 1.4230s to crash down only before 1.5 day...why?? The answer is in Monthly, everything else is noise We are back to 1.3920s support that was the main previous resistance.
Not a coincidence that price closed at 1.3920s
Waiting for monthly/weekly candle open price to decide next move.
My technical analysis leading trades depend on Daily/Weekly/Monthly Chart
  • #581,013
  • Edited 8:06am Feb 27, 2021 7:56am | Edited 8:06am
As you can see GBPUSD went through the lower channel line, retested it and then continued down. This is the confirmation of the relative divergence seen with the RSI and the MACD. How long down it will fall is the question. But this is a trend changer sign.

Further more, as you can see the price tried to go through the upper channel line but after retesting it it came back in the channel which means no breakout confirmation.

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No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #581,014
  • Feb 27, 2021 8:12am Feb 27, 2021 8:12am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Speaking for myself, I like to run against the train and catch falling knives.)
Yeah it started turning bearish. I'm still bullish though on the larger trend.
  • #581,015
  • Feb 27, 2021 8:13am Feb 27, 2021 8:13am
Just a quick review of GBP Cot data:

COT says that SMART MONEY:

LONG TERM BIAS: LONG

Last week:
- LONG positions +11.6%
- SHORT positions -5.3%
- % OI LONG +1.9%
- % OI SHORT -1.9%

From Jen 06 2021
- LONG position +78%
- SHORT position +6%
  • #581,016
  • Feb 27, 2021 8:41am Feb 27, 2021 8:41am
Quoting helioss
Just a quick review of GBP Cot data: COT says that SMART MONEY: LONG TERM BIAS: LONG Last week: - LONG positions +11.6% - SHORT positions -5.3% - % OI LONG +1.9% - % OI SHORT -1.9% From Jen 06 2021 - LONG position +78% - SHORT position +6%
so big boys are buying...
  • #581,017
  • Feb 27, 2021 8:42am Feb 27, 2021 8:42am
Quoting genadi
{quote} so big boys are buying...
doesn’t buying mean there will be a drop?
Insane in the Brain..
  • #581,018
  • Feb 27, 2021 8:45am Feb 27, 2021 8:45am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} doesn’t buying mean there will be a drop?
IMHO pullback is ended ore near to end, it was necessary as i wrote past days to go out from OVERBOUGTH, now LONG TERM TREND can restart for new HIGH
  • #581,019
  • Feb 27, 2021 8:59am Feb 27, 2021 8:59am
Gbpusd is in a current downward trend, 1 st level of support is at 1.38300
  • #581,020
  • Feb 27, 2021 8:59am Feb 27, 2021 8:59am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} doesn’t buying mean there will be a drop?
It depends on who is buying. The post above doesn’t explicitly give any information about who are the buyers. Thus it is anyone’s guess. In this case just follow the technicals and not the wishful thinking.
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
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