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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #580,961
  • Feb 26, 2021 2:49pm Feb 26, 2021 2:49pm
That pin bar in W1 time frame. Guess where this goes to next week.
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #580,962
  • Feb 26, 2021 2:50pm Feb 26, 2021 2:50pm
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} Ok, but if you don't cover the "Lots" too, it's easy to calculate the balance
Hilarious...
you got that right Vincent.

I can't put trade view on my other Account, because it's not allowed.
-Good marker account here thought. And yeah, -you're right...
I don't think anybody will want to break in & steal "that account".

Have a Great Weekend Vincent,
Thanks
I will work to Objectively Identify my Edges
  • #580,963
  • Feb 26, 2021 2:51pm Feb 26, 2021 2:51pm
Quoting Georginson
{quote} That's harsh, it's been dropping relentlessly since yesterday New York market.
I have PDS - Pound Derangement Syndrome 😁
Lost....
  • #580,964
  • Feb 26, 2021 2:58pm Feb 26, 2021 2:58pm
Quoting genadi
guys, hope you had a good week my week was terrible, i was selling when price went up, and stood aside when price went down -1.2% this week
I had the same thing, for like four days & i said: "Nope" i'm just gonna stick with this stupid trade & let it come down.
-NOT the way to trade. It Would of been better to cut the loss, 20-30 Pip's in & take a Short way higher up.

It was a rough week that only ended ok a bit for me. 'Would of liked more & done better on my "Jump-In",
Short, but amen. 1.2% who cares. Great work keeping that at bay. We move on.
Best of All Genadi.

Jeff out
I will work to Objectively Identify my Edges
  • #580,965
  • Feb 26, 2021 3:09pm Feb 26, 2021 3:09pm
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} Update {image}
agreed
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #580,966
  • Feb 26, 2021 3:09pm Feb 26, 2021 3:09pm
Smart Trader Still Buying?? :O , COT still Bullish ??
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  • #580,967
  • Feb 26, 2021 3:09pm Feb 26, 2021 3:09pm
Quoting NotAtrader
That pin bar in W1 time frame. Guess where this goes to next week.
Hey NotA...
Was checking your post for that. Obviously there are Calculators & Such for this,
the $1,000 Start thing, and the 3% Increase thing... Do you have a "Link" for that?
-Just curious....
Good Stuff, because that's the Bed rock of trading, with small percentages,
but hopefully Greater Pip Ranges, to give better returns.
Anyway, Thanks, Good Stuff Nota,

Jeff out
I will work to Objectively Identify my Edges
  • #580,968
  • Feb 26, 2021 3:29pm Feb 26, 2021 3:29pm
Quoting soulreader
Smart Trader Still Buying?? :O , COT still Bullish ?? {image}
Until Tuesday
But after...
  • #580,969
  • Feb 26, 2021 3:37pm Feb 26, 2021 3:37pm
Quoting TerpFan2
{quote} Hey NotA... Was checking your post for that. Obviously there are Calculators & Such for this, the $1,000 Start thing, and the 3% Increase thing... Do you have a "Link" for that? -Just curious.... Good Stuff, because that's the Bed rock of trading, with small percentages, but hopefully Greater Pip Ranges, to give better returns. Anyway, Thanks, Good Stuff Nota, Jeff out
Hi. You can calculate a progressive exponential growth using this formula:

1000 * (1.03)^260 = 2 176 097

1000 is the start capital.
1.03 is 3% daily increase.
powered (^) by 260 which is number of trading days during one year (just about)

if you know approximate how much profit you can make averagely per day, you can calculate how much your capital will become after certain amount of time provided you don’t blow your account before that.

Happy trading
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #580,970
  • Feb 26, 2021 3:45pm Feb 26, 2021 3:45pm
Quoting TerpFan2
{quote} Hey NotA... Was checking your post for that. Obviously there are Calculators & Such for this, the $1,000 Start thing, and the 3% Increase thing... Do you have a "Link" for that? -Just curious.... Good Stuff, because that's the Bed rock of trading, with small percentages, but hopefully Greater Pip Ranges, to give better returns. Anyway, Thanks, Good Stuff Nota, Jeff out
BTW the easiest way to achieve that is to always search for trending pairs. Choppy pairs kill your account and always will. There is no escape from the choppy market unless you master some effective hedging techniques. Fuck GBPUSD. Fuck EURUSD if you have no effective way to fight the choppiness. Take a look at EURAUD, GBPAUD, EURNZD, GBPNZD. Yes they have a big spread, but they move and trend most of the time. Only trending pairs will give you the pips that you expect provided you trade with the trend and not against.
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #580,971
  • Feb 26, 2021 3:48pm Feb 26, 2021 3:48pm
Quoting W0lfram
[...]
It can be seen from the paired barchart below that if there was a relative small range in January compared to previous years, in February it is higher than in January of the same year. If count range < 500 pips - 5 times out of 6. So, with probability 0.83 (83%) this Feb range will beat Jan. Feb median range - 529 pips{image}
Update and useless info.
I want to try to forecast next month range. Just for fun.
(It might be bullshit, I'll just leave it here for a month.)


This February Range - 676 pips (for my broker). Median range for March is 540pips
February–March historical data
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Feb > 600pips and Feb > March — 5:2 = 5/7 = 0.71 — probability that March < February in range

{{Bull Feb, Bear March}, 8 occurrences} : 5
Attached Image

Considering that, 5 months of consecutive buying and some other factors - I suppose that March will be bearish.
Possible range: let's say 25%(135) from median up, 75%(405) down
High: 1.4072
Low: 1.3532

OR if price gonna retest the high

High: 1.4242
Low: 1.37
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Air force
  • #580,972
  • Feb 26, 2021 4:01pm Feb 26, 2021 4:01pm
Found in hidden drawing layers, probably projection of Yearly range. Rejected from something, nice coincidence)
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Air force
  • #580,973
  • Edited 4:50pm Feb 26, 2021 4:11pm | Edited 4:50pm
NB: gmt+2 4hr, daily etc candles used in the discussion below.

The mthly candle closes with a bullish body, the 5th consecutively for the first time since 2009. This t/f has seen a break and clear of the multi-year descending t/line/falling wedge top and at the 4242 hi is over 590pips up since the yearly open. Starting @ the year 2020's 1410 lo the fractal prints have been LL, HL, LH, HL, and what will be a H when it forms fractally. This t/f is therefore still ranging but this may the initial stages of a new fractal uptrend. The last HL on this t/f is @ 2675. The mthly range was over twice that of January's 308pips @ 675pips, which is 136% of the 6mth amr.

The wkly candle closes as a bearish bodied hammer-esq candle after the rejection of the 4242 weds/wkly hi, ending the consecutive run of 6 bullish bodied candles on this t/f. This t/f remains in a general fractal uptrend and has yet to print a L price remaining above it's last HL @ 3566 but the pullback from the wkly 4242 hi to the 3887 wkly lo is the largest pullback since the rise to the 4242 uptrend hi from the swing lo @ 3188. The weekly range was 353pips which is 145% of the 13wk awr.

The dly candle closes bearishly too with a longer lower wick than the upper wick. The t/f remains in a general fractal uptrend and has yet to print a L, price remaining above it's last HL @ 3829. Friday's dly range was for the 4th (*) time this week > 30day adr at 138pips which is 143% of that 30day adr which has now lifted from a recent 91pip low to 100pips. Interestingly Friday's wkly lo came @ the 61.8% downside extension of Thursday's dly candle.

* The > 30 day adr happened twice on Weds, one on the way up and then on the way down, then on thurs and fri.

What next?
It really doesn't matter unless you believe in your own powers of prediction and/or that prediction is even necessary to make money trading. (It isn't) We actually don't need to worry about what will happen next and only need to trade the set-ups/PA as they come about, (consistent with our edges,) reacting to what the market does without the need to predict what it might do. This said let's speculate anyway. The wkly and daily candles suggest that more downside is at least possible if not logical, whatever that means! (I am not 100% sure it is probable as I don't have large sample empirical evidence to suggest that such a candle on a weekly chart, on this pairing is, but anecdotally/observationally we assume that it is the greater probability after such a candle, don't we?)

Known developing fundie themes that may affect this pairing in the near-term include the Govt debt bonds/yield curve story both sides of the Atlantic, Biden's $1.9trn stimulus if it passes Congress, (likely,?) as well as the ongoing vaccine rollouts/covid economic recovery expectations and data as they gather pace and things begin to open up again.

The mthly chart shows that major prev swing hi zone (dark blue) and this could well provide support (potential rbs) if price continues south next week or beyond. On wkly the next potential support (other than secondary factors like fibs and (in this case) ascending t/line, and tertiary factors like calculated pivots, Wkly S1 for eg,) is the prev sw (swing) lo zone going down to it's last HL @ 3566. On the dly t/f the next potential supp (other than the above described) is the prev sw hi/lo zone down to 3829 - the last HL on this t/f.

Mthly below, wkly then dly below that.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #580,974
  • Feb 26, 2021 4:23pm Feb 26, 2021 4:23pm
Quoting Headland
NB: gmt+2 4hr, daily etc candles used in the discussion below. The mthly candle closes with a bullish body, the 5th consecutively for the first time since 2009. This t/f has seen a break and clear of the multi-year descending t/line/falling wedge top and at the 4242 hi is over 590pips up since the yearly open. Starting @ the year 2020's 1410 lo the fractal prints have been LL, HL, LH, HL, and what will be a H when it forms fractally. This t/f is therefore still ranging but this may the initial stages of a new fractal uptrend. The last HL on this...
Upper wick shows aggression ,off major zone W1.
Ideal Hammer definition =it needs to close inside the last candle for a start ,50% of the thing isn't a reliable criteria.Also Location in scheme of things.
I.e theres no way you could ever call it a hammer next into that last candle.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #580,975
  • Feb 26, 2021 4:32pm Feb 26, 2021 4:32pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} Upper wick shows aggression ,off major zone W1. Ideal Hammer definition =it needs to close inside the last candle for a start ,50% of the thing isn't a reliable criteria.Also Location in scheme of things. I.e theres no way you could ever call it a hammer next into that last candle.
Absolutely agree with both points, Re dly; I will edit it in my post above so as not to confuse, as I drafted this post before the last surge down and close when it might more have been mistaken as such by some. Thanks.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #580,976
  • Feb 26, 2021 4:36pm Feb 26, 2021 4:36pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} Absolutely agree with both points, Re dly; I will edit it in my post above so as not to confuse, as I drafted this post before the last surge down and close when it might more have been mistaken as such by some. Thanks.
I think it will go lower maybe a lot lower,
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #580,977
  • Feb 26, 2021 4:38pm Feb 26, 2021 4:38pm
Dark cloud cover on wkly?
Rejection from upside, body covers 50% of prev candle body, even wkly open with a gap up.
Air force
  • #580,978
  • Feb 26, 2021 5:16pm Feb 26, 2021 5:16pm
Based on that upper wick, 1.3650 -1.37 seems a reasonable speculation for me
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #580,979
  • Edited Feb 27, 2021 7:24am Feb 26, 2021 5:31pm | Edited Feb 27, 2021 7:24am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} BTW the easiest way to achieve that is to always search for trending pairs. Choppy pairs kill your account and always will. There is no escape from the choppy market unless you master some effective hedging techniques. Fuck GBPUSD. Fuck EURUSD if you have no effective way to fight the choppiness. Take a look at EURAUD, GBPAUD, EURNZD, GBPNZD. Yes they have a big spread, but they move and trend most of the time. Only trending pairs will give you the pips that you expect provided you trade with the trend and not against.
Very Good Stuff Nota...
I like it... Yes the "Choppiness" was a hard pill to swallow for a couple weeks there, on GU.
I disdain, -no HATE EUR/USD. I Def, (in the past) have seen that Choppiness. One's i used to love,
Despite any Spread were GBP/JPY, and GBP/CHF, which used to ROAR. -I think the new Game has been
CRYPTO, the last few year. I made some going Up the Ladder on BIT's 19K Run & Going back down it.
I left it alone after that.

But i totally agree w/your Sentiment alot of times on that Choppy NON-Trending situation.
Thanks for the latest. I will Def. check these Kiwi & Aussie Pairs, against the Pound & Euro.
Good Stuff, Very Good Stuff.

Thanks for taking your time to Chime back.
I ran the numbers w/the 1.03 Math, just was trying to get that 260 Exponential Days growth.
I found this Calculator, that Hit YOUR number, right on the Head:
https://calculator.academy/exponenti...lculator/#f1p1

My Best NoTa,
Thanks for taking the time to "Chime Back-In",
Thank you again,

Jeff
I will work to Objectively Identify my Edges
  • #580,980
  • Feb 26, 2021 5:45pm Feb 26, 2021 5:45pm
Quoting W0lfram
Dark cloud cover on wkly? Rejection from upside, body covers 50% of prev candle body, even wkly open with a gap up.
Yep, this is it.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full...9.2020.1768648

Didn't know about such criteria.
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Satisfies

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Distance from the High to Close is their sl/tp. So, down ~ 300 pips more (?)
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Air force
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