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Real or Algo

  • #701
  • Edited 8:56pm Aug 28, 2020 6:52pm | Edited 8:56pm
Quoting LearnALot
{quote} Hi Rick, Can the optimal settings be roughly determined by the most extreme zone of George's M1 TMA or am I totally off-base?
Hi LearnALot

You have to be like CeeSo. You need to create a excel sheet and record every spike, every extreme TMA move in terms of pips movement, angle and width expansion and then calculate the average pip movement away from various reference points.
This may lead you to the discovery that a market frequency really could exist and the establishment of your final reference point that may give a trader a edge.
Then we have this Angle of Averages indicator which may or may not be of help when trading these expansion moves.
Last night on the live trading room, a couple of traders were also trading the markets using different various settings on the Angles of Average indicator, very few loses were being recorded.
The optimal settings I am using is fixed for my chart but still in development for the indicator.

My opinion is the trader who can master the grind may just master the markets. The angle of averages indicator is one of the best tools I have found that seems to offer a trading edge when faced with a major grind.
Give me a month to research whether it is a winner or not.

Cheers Rick
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #702
  • Aug 28, 2020 7:25pm Aug 28, 2020 7:25pm
Got it! Thanks for providing direction.
  • #703
  • Sep 6, 2020 7:19am Sep 6, 2020 7:19am
Quoting Nikkoro
{quote} Hi, BubaYaga is right there. The thing is you can't use same lot sizes to create triangular hedge. Example: I took current rates in the morning: - EURUSD: 1.08593 - GBPUSD: 1.24682 - EURGBP: 0.87088 1. Buy 1 lot of EURUSD for 1.08593 -> you bought 108 593 EUR for 100 000 USD (+108 593€, -100 000$) 2. Sell 1 lot of GBPUSD for 1.24682 -> sold 124 682 GBP for 100 000 USD (-124 682£, +100 000$) 3. How many lots of EURGBP I need to balance hedge? From 1. and 2. we have on our account: (+108 593€, -124 682£) USD was balanced (-100 000$ + 100 000$...
Hi Nikkoro, I would like to send you a private message but i am not able.How can i contact you privately?
  • #704
  • Dec 4, 2020 1:17pm Dec 4, 2020 1:17pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi LearnALot You have to be like CeeSo. You need to create a excel sheet and record every spike, every extreme TMA move in terms of pips movement, angle and width expansion and then calculate the average pip movement away from various reference points. This may lead you to the discovery that a market frequency really could exist and the establishment of your final reference point that may give a trader a edge. Then we have this Angle of Averages indicator which may or may not be of help when trading these expansion moves. Last night on the...
Hi Rick, do you still use the angle of averages indicator as part of your trading? Also, if you're comfortable with sharing, how many trade opportunities do you get in a year with a single pair? I made a version of George's system that works well for u.s. stocks, but there were only ~40 trades in the past year for the single stock I trade.
  • #705
  • Dec 4, 2020 5:10pm Dec 4, 2020 5:10pm
Quoting LearnALot
{quote} Hi Rick, do you still use the angle of averages indicator as part of your trading? Also, if you're comfortable with sharing, how many trade opportunities do you get in a year with a single pair? I made a version of George's system that works well for u.s. stocks, but there were only ~40 trades in the past year for the single stock I trade.
Hi LearnALot

I used the Indy for a couple of weeks to test it with another trader in our scalping trading group.
It’s actually a great tool for reducing your DD to very low levels but the entry’s are very late.
My issue was it already told me information I was already receiving from my current alert system so really for me its just a duplication of signals.

Trading Forex is a better idea for George’s system as I get about 35 signals a week off just 1 forex pair.
In a week trading 9 pairs, I get about 300 setups.
30% are in a couple of hours around London Open and 60% are around New York open. That last 10% is for the rest of the day.

I think the market you trade and when to trade them is the most important factor in profiting from George’s methods.
For me, that’s GBPUSD, GBPJPY, EURGP, AUDUSD, EURUSD and Gold.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #706
  • Feb 22, 2021 6:04am Feb 22, 2021 6:04am
Maybe time to open this thread again.

No real reason other than to let people have a say without having to take a load of condescending crap.

I still have no reason to doubt the market is just an Algorithm.... each pair having its own ‘identity’!

Think anything different, you have the floor.....

Moody.
  • #707
  • Feb 22, 2021 7:44am Feb 22, 2021 7:44am
Quoting moodybot
Maybe time to open this thread again. No real reason other than to let people have a say without having to take a load of condescending crap. I still have no reason to doubt the market is just an Algorithm.... each pair having its own ‘identity’! Think anything different, you have the floor..... Moody.
I'm on the fence with each having its own identity.

I believe its the same across all pairs.
  • #708
  • Feb 22, 2021 8:28am Feb 22, 2021 8:28am
There are a number of patterns that occur frequently in all instruments that have highly predictable outcomes and we can speculate as to whether these patterns are created by algos, smart money, crowd behaviour etc. I believe it to be the former because of the precision and the repetition that occurs but to be honest I don't really care provided they keep on appearing.

I have learnt that a pattern that is clear as daylight to some people is undetectable to others. Our brains are wired differently which makes pattern recognition more difficult for some but I know of at least one trader who made an extremely comfortable career from only one pattern.

Due to individual differences, I think that it is something that is very difficult to teach. There is a wealth of information about different patterns online and a significant number are documented in a book by Thomas Bulkowski but I believe the best solution is to find your own - something that pops out to you may not have been seen or documented by anyone else. Find a reliable one (or more) that appears frequently, backtest it to death and you are on your way.

Algo or not, the tracks are there to see if you look hard enough.
  • #709
  • Feb 22, 2021 1:16pm Feb 22, 2021 1:16pm
Quoting hepsibah
There are a number of patterns that occur frequently in all instruments that have highly predictable outcomes and we can speculate as to whether these patterns are created by algos, smart money, crowd behaviour etc. I believe it to be the former because of the precision and the repetition that occurs but to be honest I don't really care provided they keep on appearing. I have learnt that a pattern that is clear as daylight to some people is undetectable to others. Our brains are wired differently which makes pattern recognition more difficult for...

I happen to agree with you.
I certainly look for structure that either gives the illusion of being controlled by a single source Algo or it’s a combination of other factors.
For me there is too much of a coincidence with certain moves or outcomes. I can’t as yet predict when a move may start, ground zero, but I can see when it’s likely to start, and I can trade the move once it has started to take shape.
  • #710
  • Feb 22, 2021 4:00pm Feb 22, 2021 4:00pm
Good points imo.

Whether we use visual patterns, maths patterns, or whatever patterns, we all seek reoccurances of repeatable situations that we can turn into profit.

If there were ‘zero’ patterns, (maths or visual - or whatever) then the market could truly be deemed ‘random’ (the R word).

If price runs to a target point (maths or swings), and does it at ‘some stage’ day after day, then it seems like an algo.
  • #711
  • Feb 22, 2021 4:02pm Feb 22, 2021 4:02pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote}
I happen to agree with you. I certainly look for structure that either gives the illusion of being controlled by a single source Algo or it’s a combination of other factors. For me there is too much of a coincidence with certain moves or outcomes. I can’t as yet predict when a move may start, ground zero,
but I can see when it’s likely to start, and I can trade the move once it has started to take shape.

And if it is an algo, it would appear to have a double stage operation.

The first is what could be called an accumulation (or exhaustion, or consolidation) stage.

Where the purpose might be to ‘hold’ - BOTH buyers & sellers - into a closed & confined (but variable) range area.

Once that first algo mission stage is completed then price moves to the next target.

If it is a single algo (operating in and amongst other high level and low level individual algo’s) then its only purpose you would imagine would be for PROFIT.

NOT to merely facilitate the efficient operation of essentially a zero sum environment.

Profit.

Thus shakeouts, fake n flips, pin bars, ranges etc. That is the illusion that is the trap set up for traders.


Yet. Once “the move has started to take shape”, as Andy pointed out, then that’s an entry point coming up.


(And IF you can then override your own positional ego, when a trade DOESN’T work out, and close that trade at the lowest dollar risk to your a/c, you have then given yourself the best chance to be long term profitable imo).
  • #712
  • Feb 22, 2021 5:43pm Feb 22, 2021 5:43pm
BW.... the floor is yours!
  • #713
  • Feb 22, 2021 6:02pm Feb 22, 2021 6:02pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} And if it is an algo, it would appear to have a double stage operation. The first is what could be called an accumulation (or exhaustion, or consolidation) stage. Where the purpose might be to ‘hold’ - BOTH buyers & sellers - into a closed & confined (but variable) range area. Once that first algo mission stage is completed then price moves to the next target. If it is a single algo (operating in and amongst other high level and low level individual algo’s) then its only purpose you would imagine would be for PROFIT. NOT to merely facilitate...
That’s exactly it Pete.
The first stage, I think, is to induce traders to ‘assume’ that price is heading off in a particular direction.
Different traders different ideas.
Some would call this consolidation... but all the SM want is an accumulation of orders, or let’s cut to the chase, stops, direction doesn’t matter. Eventually a threshold will be hit, the direction the Algo will take will be attracted to the heaviest side of stops.
SM will fast track a move out of consolidation, eventually retracing back into or around starting point of the move.
This move will leave targets that have to be revisited, especially the first move.
The illusion is to convince traders that their money is controlling direction, although at no time is this the case.
The move or sequence will trap both long and short traders with targets being revisited to clean out stops.
Those savvy enough will know the sequence but it can be difficult knowing the actual reversal points.
Once stops are cleaned out and the move is over the Algo will move price to another level, and so the sequence will restart.
This occurs on all pairs, al timeframes.
Its the logical way for SM to capitalise with the least risk, and they do not lose, ever.
Some will agree, most will disagree...and that’s what this thread was originally opened for.
  • #714
  • Edited 6:56pm Feb 22, 2021 6:16pm | Edited 6:56pm
What I write here do not take it on a personal basis. Remove the writer, just read the content of my post.

The candles painted on your chart are done by a single algo, there's no doubt about this fact. No arguments imv.

Let me move this algo discussion to where it should be, right in the face no holds barred that cut the crap no bullshite.

Why are there lots of objection to this proposal that a single algo paint our chart?

This is the heart of the discussion. Zoom down at the real issue that each member on this thread face personally.

Why the fark do YOU have objection towards this idea about a single algo? Bear in mind all of us are looking for the alpha over this forex market. By alpha I mean a edge, a real objective quantifiable edge. Not bullshite guessing.

The answer to this question lies in your EGO.

If this single algo is true the following must also be true,

1. This forex market is not random,

2. All the current narrative about the market is false. This the the biggest stumbling block for ALL traders. If you think of this market as a genuine auction market, then you have great difficulty to dump all of that crap that you've learnt so far in your trading journey. You can't and its impossible for 99.02% of YOU.

Instead of accept this new line of thought you post veeeeery long speeches about how supply and demand economics work. Argue how it's illogical and impossible for a single algo control this gigantic interbank forex market which retail traders don't participate in with our 0.01lot.

Guys, take a breather hold your horses. If traditional technical analysis work, candlestick pattern, price action, supply demand, support resistance, pvsra, volume profile, indicators, fibs and all that crap work YOU won't be here looking for more. Go make YOUR millions. So stop writing obvious bullshite, none of us are stupid. When we stop this bs then we give ourselves this opportunity to open our minds to this algo illusion.

3. Reiterating point2, if the Forex market is painted by this single algo, then ALL traditional technical analysis is useless.

4. The only way to alpha, or edge, is to understand this algo. If anyone understand and has enough knowledge about it he possesses the ability to front run this market, a form of insiders knowledge.

5. Algo is written by PhD level programmers. The base medium of their instruction codes is math.

Now deal with it YOUR way as an individual.

***don't mix traditional narrative with this math algo to try explain for it. This hybrid don't make sense.
Know what you trade
  • #715
  • Feb 22, 2021 6:37pm Feb 22, 2021 6:37pm
Quoting BWilliam
What I write here do not take it on a personal basis. Remove the writer, just read the count of my post. The candles painted on your chart are done by a algo, there's no doubt about this fact. No arguments imv. Let me move this algo discussion to where it should be, right in the face no holds barred that cut the crap no bullshite. Why are there lots of objection to this proposal that a single algo paint our chart? This is the heart of the discussion. Zoom down at the real issue that each member on this thread face personally. Why the fark do YOU...

Thats the second time I have had to agree with you, it’s now worrying me.
The Peter Calebs of the world absolutely do my head in... if a trader cannot see the illusion painted on a chart it’s time to walk away... unfortunately the bullshitters get the most exposure, sing the loudest or just steam roller people into submission.
  • #716
  • Feb 22, 2021 6:47pm Feb 22, 2021 6:47pm
The hard truth about this algo talk comes down to this.

If this single algo proposition is true then to you as an individual trader,

How do you get alpha in this algo driven market?

How do you get your edge?
Where does your edge come from stated in clear, objective and quantified manner?

YOU can ignore and avoid this question. But all these discussions come down to this one question.

Now, do members want a real no holds barred discussion or waste time with the usual cheering and jeering bs? It's YOUR time, YOUR call.
Know what you trade
  • #717
  • Feb 22, 2021 6:53pm Feb 22, 2021 6:53pm
Quoting BWilliam
The hard truth about this algo talk comes down to this. If this single algo proposition is true then to you as an individual trader, How do you get alpha in this algo driven market? How do you get your edge? Where does your edge come from in clear, objective and quantified manner? YOU can ignore and avoid this question. But all these discussions come down to this one question. Now, do members want a real no holds barred discussion or waste time with the usual cheering and jeering bs? It's YOUR time, YOUR call.
Let them decide.
Comments for or against won’t be met with force, snide name calling or stomping on.. just honest debate.
The floor is open.
  • #718
  • Edited 7:29pm Feb 22, 2021 7:15pm | Edited 7:29pm
Quoting BWilliam
The hard truth about this algo talk comes down to this. If this single algo proposition is true then to you as an individual trader, How do you get alpha in this algo driven market? How do you get your edge?

Hi BW yes imo you are on the right track in trying to clear the fuzziness from the forex market.


The strange thing is, but in my opinion only, so here we go.

The more I think & think on this - it is ALL about WHEN to trade a price move and that should be AFTER the illusion has been completed (by the algo) .....
(and you could do that visually as well as mathematically imo)


It is THEN (at the ‘illusion completion’ point) that PA will also start to fit in with ‘any’ type of technical analysis (yes any PA/TA method, but I’m still thinking deep on this one lol - just offering a pre thought here).


So fibs won’t work imo just because price hits a fib level, they work LATER and AFTER the buyers & sellers have made their guess which way price will go to the next target (continuation or reversal).

And so Pivs won’t work imo just because price hits a Piv level, they work LATER and AFTER the illusion has coerced traders into buying or selling (too early) at that level.

Same for MA’s etc etc.

And if this is (in anyway close to) reality then the MAIN trouble for traders is them entering TOO early and on first impulse.


Of course if everyone WAITS, then so might the MM algo until there is a definite ‘loading’ of buys / sells one way or the other.

Markets might then stagnate (and range like AUDJPY did ALL day yesterday - when we know the aud makes long and sustained runs ONCE it has some directional momentum underway).


The algo might then have to create its OWN moves to entice traders with yet another illusion to ‘stimulate’ activity.

If the algo IS the ultimate liquidity as such.

Then why could it not do this form of illusion (enticement) as BW suggests.
  • #719
  • Feb 22, 2021 7:20pm Feb 22, 2021 7:20pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi BW yes imo you are on the right track in trying to clear the fuzziness from the forex market. The strange thing is, but in my opinion only, so here we go. The more I think & think on this - it is ALL about WHEN to trade a price move and that should be AFTER the illusion has been completed (by the algo) ..... (and you could do that visually as well as mathematically imo) It is THEN (at the ‘illusion completion’ point) that PA will also start to fit in with ‘any’ type of technical analysis (yes any PA/TA method, but I’m still thinking deep...
The safe trade is after the stops have been taking out from the initial move/sequence and before the subsequent illusion of creating a trend on its way to a new level.. levels again are just an illusion, they are start/end points of the sequence.
  • #720
  • Feb 23, 2021 4:40am Feb 23, 2021 4:40am
Quoting BWilliam
The hard truth about this algo talk comes down to this. If this single algo proposition is true then to you as an individual trader, How do you get alpha in this algo driven market? How do you get your edge? Where does your edge come from stated in clear, objective and quantified manner? YOU can ignore and avoid this question. But all these discussions come down to this one question. Now, do members want a real no holds barred discussion or waste time with the usual cheering and jeering bs? It's YOUR time, YOUR call.
We still have a problem

To have an trading edge of any sort within a market - we need plentiful supply of Passive limit orders

HOWEVER WE DON"T HAVE PLENTIFUL SUPPLY OF PASSIVE LIMIT ORDERS IN FRONT OF PRICE -

Liquidity is therefore always lagging in front of current price where major players intend it to go, so that's one edge right there.

As for the Algo, at what price is it willing to exhaust in achieving its target, maybe 300 million dollars in spend funds to achieve its crazy objective?.
So the biggest question needs to be asked now.

Who funds this expenditure - the retail trader in losses, the market makers in trading expenses, the ALGO's silent partner?.

I think its the silent partner - that's any trader who through fear of losing or through fear of missing out on profits - hits the market order button.
So perhaps another trading edge may just be -

DON'T REACT WHEN IT TICKLES YOU
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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