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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #578,221
  • Feb 16, 2021 3:47am Feb 16, 2021 3:47am
Closed all at 1.3940, looks like 1.3943 Monthly support is strong.
  • #578,222
  • Feb 16, 2021 3:50am Feb 16, 2021 3:50am
Quoting Tekin
I was expecting the 1.3310 move yesterday but there were too many seller and now my entry is very good support if h4 could reach to 1.3882 then maybe but it seems hard anymore {image}

one last short addition at 1.3929 to recover hopefully. tp 1.3050
  • #578,223
  • Feb 16, 2021 3:51am Feb 16, 2021 3:51am
Quoting parshal
I guess its all puzzled..No indicators or analysis somehow working. So I go to my feelings.. 1.4 is a psychological number and I see that it will be very hard to reach 1.4. It shouldn't be a surprise if the there is a down of roughly 200 pips in next days.
The problem why markets react like that are long term players with deep pockets. As you can see last days, everytime the market is dropping, someone buying the dips down. In short term it looks irrational but in long term it can make sense. To understand that mess currently you have to check where and when these guys sold the market and why they (still) buy back the GBP now.

As I can see 1,3900 is the limit of these buyings, everything above is currently supported by big boys (the regular ones) digging currently their hole deeper and deeper and averaging up their huge positions. The flush to the downside occurs when the first avg. ins got hit to the downside. Question is when that limit is reached. The longer we stay in that area now, the more the probability goes up for a flush to the downside.

In general that game above described is always the same but this time it is a bit awkward because of the buying back GBP from Brexit Issues (that's messing up the current quote). In general that is very clever because the GBP is very weak (fundamentally) currently so if you have to unwind 1000 pips selling before, now it's the time to buy it back because everyone else is selling .
  • #578,224
  • Feb 16, 2021 3:51am Feb 16, 2021 3:51am
Quoting Tekin
{quote} one last short addition at 1.3929 to recover hopefully. tp 1.3050
.305??? How long you think will be open your trader? it's SO FAR
  • #578,225
  • Feb 16, 2021 3:53am Feb 16, 2021 3:53am
Quoting W0lfram
It seems to me like no tech/indi are working right now. They just optimistic about vaccines, you know. and other countries aren't.
been saying week after week take out a calculator and figure out the mid point of the first quarter in hours, that is where the bat and the wave 5 terminate, the price level is a straightforward calculation too, hasn't reached yet why is that? people don't know what time it is
twitter: @gettoefl
  • #578,226
  • Feb 16, 2021 3:54am Feb 16, 2021 3:54am
Short again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CamScanner 02-16-2021 11.50_1.jpg Size: 115 KB
yes yes yes
  • #578,227
  • Edited 4:32am Feb 16, 2021 3:56am | Edited 4:32am
Had a chance to take out short at BE. See how this develops. Went in for an expected retest of this TL, now forming either a flag for continuation or M for a top. Normally would just have scalped/grabbed the 20 pips on the table and re-entered short but didn't for some reason, maybe convinced myself that the 4h/daily channel is going to hold. I know by now the mental trap of expecting something to happen because its overdue is a losing game.

Looking at the Gilt market, we've formed a bear flag while retesting monthly res (prices not yields) so a continuation up to 1.40 is very possible. For now it's respecting the bottom of the flag so expect a bit of down movement but no major correction. DXY fallen through support too. Movement down to 1.39 then another bounce is my best guess. I think 1.39 would make for a good long scalp if it gets there

Attached Gilt prices implying that cable upside isn't finished
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable.jpg Size: 100 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gilts.jpg Size: 79 KB
  • #578,228
  • Feb 16, 2021 4:06am Feb 16, 2021 4:06am
Quoting Sang.Real
{quote} GU 24 hours later....... To hold or to take loss. ? Any comment welcome. Thanks {image}

GU

Add one more short scalping position.

Hope it will go down to 1.3565? .....

Any comment and view welcome for educational purposes.


Thank You
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 168.jpg Size: 264 KB
  • #578,229
  • Feb 16, 2021 4:06am Feb 16, 2021 4:06am
Quoting Moty
Short again {image}
OK. You like the divergence.
  • #578,230
  • Feb 16, 2021 4:08am Feb 16, 2021 4:08am
Quoting helioss
{quote} it worked very fine to start pullback ended at .3706 , now is not more valid IMHO (i'm not a Divergence Trader )
Your boss Moty, change to short.
  • #578,231
  • Feb 16, 2021 4:09am Feb 16, 2021 4:09am
Quoting helioss
{quote} .305??? How long you think will be open your trader? it's SO FAR
its my mistake 1.3850 is the right for short time. thanks
  • #578,232
  • Feb 16, 2021 4:10am Feb 16, 2021 4:10am
Quoting abconqq7
seems it will runs to 1.45 before coming down. Cheers to the bull
Wow, what change your mind
  • #578,233
  • Feb 16, 2021 4:11am Feb 16, 2021 4:11am
Been watching the London session unfold. Somewhat messy and nervous PA. I think its best to stay out when price is floating in a session midline, also looking for a long around 3905-3910 area for 30-40pips.

Lets see what the folks from NY bring to table in 3 hours.


Quoting mysterio
Had a chance to take out short at BE. See how this develops. Went in for an expected retest of this TL, now forming either a flag for continuation or M for a top. Normally would just have scalped/grabbed the 20 pips on the table and re-entered short but didn't for some reason, maybe convinced myself that the 4h/daily channel is going to hold. I know by now the mental trap of expecting something to happen because its overdue is a losing game. Looking at the Gilt market, we've formed a bear flag while retesting monthly res (prices not yields) so a...
  • #578,234
  • Feb 16, 2021 4:12am Feb 16, 2021 4:12am
M5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2194.PNG Size: 15 KB
  • #578,235
  • Feb 16, 2021 4:13am Feb 16, 2021 4:13am
Quoting Sang.Real
{quote} GU Add one more short scalping position. Hope it will go down to 1.3565? ..... Any comment and view welcome for educational purposes. Thank You {image}
Those aren't scalping positions unless your time scale is infinity lol...scalping is quick in and out with small targets - letting some run on momentum -not hours/24hrs and certainly not with a target like 3565. Whether that is reached within your tolerance for drawdown/margin is anyone's guess...no-one knows.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #578,236
  • Feb 16, 2021 4:13am Feb 16, 2021 4:13am
1.40$ round number.
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #578,237
  • Feb 16, 2021 4:16am Feb 16, 2021 4:16am
If you want to preserve your capital in long term, then never add to a losing position.

You can add to a winning one, when initial deal is locked in and any addition should be ideally smaller than initial deal.

Quoting Sang.Real
{quote} GU Add one more short scalping position. Hope it will go down to 1.3565? ..... Any comment and view welcome for educational purposes. Thank You {image}
  • #578,238
  • Feb 16, 2021 4:20am Feb 16, 2021 4:20am
just slightly off topic
mainly or reflection of how strong certain currency to current economic of certain country should be real reflected
now
1 GBP : 1.39 USD

so is it good for Great Britain? i dun know because im an engineer

anyway GBP is the fifth rank in the world

1 Kuwait Dinar : 3.31 USD
1 Bahrain Dinar : 2.65 USD
1 Oman Rial : 2.60 USD
1 Jordan Dinar : 1.41 USD

then
1 GBP : 1.39 USD
  • #578,239
  • Feb 16, 2021 4:20am Feb 16, 2021 4:20am
Crooks wlhipaw
yes yes yes
  • #578,240
  • Feb 16, 2021 4:20am Feb 16, 2021 4:20am
closed my longs. Now, I see 4hr resistance ...so beginning to short.
Intraday only.
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